Early LINE movement on TITLE game

VIA PINNACLE


<TABLE borderColor=#333333 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=center border=1><TBODY><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-03
01:39:42</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -145
133</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-109/-101</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o155.0
-101/-109</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-03
01:03:22</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -145
133</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-109/-101</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o155.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:41:19</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -145
133</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o155.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:32:34</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -145
133</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o155.0
-108/-102</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:31:58</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -145
133</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o155.5
104/-114</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:29:13</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -145
133</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o155.5
-101/-109</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:25:55</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -145
133</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o155.5
-108/-102</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:24:48</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -145
133</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
102/-112</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:19:51</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -145
133</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:16:00</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -145
133</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-108/-102</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:15:27</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -143
131</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-108/-102</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:12:42</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -143
131</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:12:09</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -146
134</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:11:03</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -146
134</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-109/-101</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:08:51</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -146
134</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-109/-101</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:07:45</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -150
135</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-109/-101</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:03:20</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -142
130</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:02:48</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -138
126</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
23:01:41</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -138
126</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-114/104</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:55:05</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -138
126</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-108/-102</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:52:53</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -140
128</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-101/-109</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:50:08</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -140
128</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-102/-108</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:49:35</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -135
123</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.5
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:46:17</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -135
123</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-107/-103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:45:43</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -131
119</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-109/-101</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:41:52</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -131
119</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-103/-107</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:41:19</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -131
119</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-101/-109</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o156.0
-103/-107</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:40:46</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -131
119</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-101/-109</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o155.5
-112/102</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:40:17</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -131
119</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-101/-109</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o155.5
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:39:40</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-101/-109</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o155.0
-112/102</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:39:07</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
101/-111</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o155.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:37:27</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
101/-111</TD><TD class=data align=middle>OFF
OFF</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:36:21</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>OFF
OFF</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:33:36</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-103/-107</TD><TD class=data align=middle>OFF
OFF</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:33:03</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -1.5
-112/102</TD><TD class=data align=middle>OFF
OFF</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:32:30</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -1.5
-106/-104</TD><TD class=data align=middle>OFF
OFF</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:31:23</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-105/-105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>OFF
OFF</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2005-04-02
22:30:50</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -2.0
-101/-109</TD><TD class=data align=middle>OFF
OFF</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I felt NC -2 was a real solid line.

Perhaps not, time will tell.

-F-

Fishhead said:

I felt NC -2 was a real solid line.

Perhaps not, time will tell.

-F-

Click to expand...

Game coming back down to -2 at some shops.

As mentioned, think -2 is a pretty solid number..........maybe even -1.5 which was my personal original number late last evening.

-F-

total moving down...154.5 currently

Total is the move. Numbers are solid on the teams, with last two gmes the side has gone off within a hook of the opener. That is sharp with a week between games. The totals were a different story. Ill opened 147, dropped to 143. NC opened 156 1/2, went to 159 1/2. Landed 158, oops. I think 2, maybe 2 1/2, is a good number and is my guess for a closer. However the total was off. The NC total was tight, middled, but the Ill steam was solid, way under. This opener of 156 1/2 is off, and I made sure to get all of the 156 I could. Not saying it will go under or over, but that is the move, and both moves were right last two.


Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

Id lean to the under as well. Illinois will use its pateitn motion offense to wear down and break down UNC for a good shot. That said, I think they'll get a lot of good ones and hit them. Still, a little under. 77-72 Illinois. If the game is in the 80's it favors UNC. Some ILL/Under and UNC/Over correlation IMO.

D2bets said:

Id lean to the under as well. Illinois will use its pateitn motion offense to wear down and break down UNC for a good shot. That said, I think they'll get a lot of good ones and hit them. Still, a little under. 77-72 Illinois. If the game is in the 80's it favors UNC. Some ILL/Under and UNC/Over correlation IMO.

Click to expand...

i agree..don't know why wisconsin and michigan state tried to run against this team...i like illinois in this one also as long as they don't make it a track meet..i think they have good enough athletes to dictate the pace...

Illinois will pick its spots to run, no doubt, mostly off of turnovers. But they do not force things in the half court set. They pass, pass, pass until the defense breaks down. NC just doesn't have the discipline to play the 35 seconds of D every time. This will result in great looks for Illinois. If they knock down a lot of their open shots, which they do probably 70-80% of their games, they will be cutting down the nets.

D2bets said:

Illinois will pick its spots to run, no doubt, mostly off of turnovers. But they do not force things in the half court set. They pass, pass, pass until the defense breaks down. NC just doesn't have the discipline to play the 35 seconds of D every time. This will result in great looks for Illinois. If they knock down a lot of their open shots, which they do probably 70-80% of their games, they will be cutting down the nets.

Click to expand...

I feel about the same D2, and have all of my frogs on Illinois. Only team in the tourney I bought futures on. Just my luck they are a dog in the Final. But was truly blessed on the Zona miracle so I can't complain. I personally think the wrong team is favored, but I am biased. I have good futures, Ill. to win it all, and bad futures, Ill. to advance furthur that NC. Waters my position down to 5/2. I will at least hedge to push, keep original investment. You still cap very well, and I always respect your opinions...

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

I think Illinois must stop North Carolina inside game, because I cant see North Carolina missing all those layups like Louisville did yesterday. if I were a Illinois fan I would be more scared of North Carolina inside game than there outside game. Illinois must pack the middle and keep Williams and May from getting inside. if Illinois doesnt clog up the middle they have no chance to win the basketball game.

Rainbow said:

I think Illinois must stop North Carolina inside game, because I cant see North Carolina missing all those layups like Louisville did yesterday. if I were a Illinois fan I would be more scared of North Carolina inside game than there outside game. Illinois must pack the middle and keep Williams and May from getting inside. if Illinois doesnt clog up the middle they have no chance to win the basketball game.

Click to expand...

Agree 100%. Sean May is the biggest concern. If NC wins I think would be with May scoring 25+ pts. He will have to have a huge game for NC to have a chance. Expect Deron Williams to lock down McCants and Brown will netrulize Felton. Illinois wants to force NC into undesirable shots early in the clock. If I liked MC, I'd just bet May over points (18?) instead. If he doesn't score more than his total, NC won't win. Illinois has allowed a 20+ pt scorer in every tourney game, but NONE of them hve been guards.

I believe May would be at IU if Coach Knight was still there.

D2bets said:

Agree 100%. Sean May is the biggest concern. If NC wins I think would be with May scoring 25+ pts. He will have to have a huge game for NC to have a chance. Expect Deron Williams to lock down McCants and Brown will netrulize Felton. Illinois wants to force NC into undesirable shots early in the clock. If I liked MC, I'd just bet May over points (18?) instead. If he doesn't score more than his total, NC won't win. Illinois has allowed a 20+ pt scorer in every tourney game, but NONE of them hve been guards.

Click to expand...

I know you had to notice that Michigan St missed alot of wide open outside shots that Illinois would have knocked down. I made North Carolina a 1pt favorite to me thats like a pk. I bet Olympic Illinois +3 flat. I think Illinois will have a good game plan for Sean May.

FairWarning said:

More important for Illini to stop Felton. He is the key to their offense. Illini have shut down Stoudemire and Garcia last 2 games and see no reason they won't stop Felton.

Click to expand...

You maybe be right, but Sean May scares me the most.

FairWarning said:

More important for Illini to stop Felton. He is the key to their offense. Illini have shut down Stoudemire and Garcia last 2 games and see no reason they won't stop Felton.

Click to expand...

They have targeted one player to take out. That has been successful. But Zona reacted well, and started using Stoudamire as a decoy, when defense collapsed on him, it created a lot of wide open looks, 15 feet and out. I think they can bottle up Felton, if they choose to. But running with Tarheels is suicidal, especially when they get frustrated against a good ball control team. They have alot of defensive lapses, and seem to get a little down if they get slowed down. Very good matchup of contrasting styles. I feel the top two teams are facing each other, unlike the bowl games.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

Just like to say, welcome back Frog. I have missed the type of discussion like this one with D2.

Listen, if Wisconsin can run with N.C., Illinois certainly can run against them. Wisconsin had so many good looks they'd run with them any day of the week. N.C. defense is weak, but its offense is so good that it gets away with it. It's appropriate that the game is in the St. Louis dome,where the Rams have used that same philosophy for years--a good offense makes up for a poor defense. Illinois could tear these guys a new one if its on.

Pinny showing 153 1/2 now. Same 2 for side. Not sure how far it drops, but was an obvious bad opener.

Best Wishes...oF:howdy:

arniesarmy said:

Listen, if Wisconsin can run with N.C., Illinois certainly can run against them. Wisconsin had so many good looks they'd run with them any day of the week. N.C. defense is weak, but its offense is so good that it gets away with it. It's appropriate that the game is in the St. Louis dome,where the Rams have used that same philosophy for years--a good offense makes up for a poor defense. Illinois could tear these guys a new one if its on.

Click to expand...

wisconsin ran themselves out of the tournament...no way i'd run against unc the whole game..if unc's defense is very weak, why not make them defend for all 35 seconds..i already took illinois, but "if it's on", as in a shootout, i don't like illinois's chances...