Dante said:
First off, middling/scalping is a huge gamble if you have no idea about line movements and an understanding of the lines at the current time if one plans on taking leads.
Even with an understanding, it is still a relative gamble the majority of the time when one is taking a lead on a game, even for experienced punters.
Even if one finds a middle/scalp at two seperate shops similtanously, it is still a gamble as one must hurry to get down on both lines before either line moves......if it does, one could be stuck with a side they do not want.
For the record, middles/scalps make up only a small minority of my overall gambling activity............but they certainly help the bottom line year in and year out and certainly is not an easy way to grind out a profit day in and day out..........even for experienced punters.
-FISH-
Having said the above, I do however do not consider successful sportsbettors as gamblers, in the true sense of the word.
A GAMBLER to me is somebody who plays a NEGATIVE EXPECTATION game such as craps, roulette, etc., etc., or plays a POSITIVE EXPECTATION game but does so incorrectly and without the majority of knowledge needed on that POSITIVE EXPECTATION game to be profitable in the longrun.
-FISH-
A GAMBLER to me is somebody who plays a NEGATIVE EXPECTATION game such as craps, roulette, etc., etc., or plays a POSITIVE EXPECTATION game but does so incorrectly and without the majority of knowledge needed on that POSITIVE EXPECTATION game to be profitable in the longrun.
-FISH-
I"m done going back and forth with Frog with this issue.
1. I think a person that lays -6 on a game and the line goes to 8 painted everywhere and you come back and take +8. I think the original bet -6 will get the money in along run but taking +8 in along run into a concrete line the book will beat you in the long run there.
2. if you bet over 206 on a total and the total goes to 210 everywhere and you comeback and bet under 210. dont worry the book will beat you in along run betting under 210 into the concrete line. same thing if you bet over 206 for the game and they score 120 pts in the 1st half and its a blow out the total will be adjusted to the blow out so if you bet under going for a middle you are not stealing nothing there either, if its a close game at the half and you want to go for a middle and everybody puts up the same total you are not stealing nothing unless you find a book out of line and you want to hedge alittle its nothing wrong with that. I"m just saying if you have so much the best of the original bet why on earth would you want to give anything away when you have that much the best of it. thats why mosts books are not scared of middlers, reason when you are going for the middle you are betting into a concrete line your original bet will take home the cheese in along run, and I gurantee you betting into any concrete line without having the best of the number you have way the worst of it. Frog kills me he thinks I just talk BS if thats what he thinks more power to him. my name is not God, but I know one thing for sure if you beat the line you beat the game. its real simple if you think about it, how can you lose if you beat the line consistenly
1. I think a person that lays -6 on a game and the line goes to 8 painted everywhere and you come back and take +8. I think the original bet -6 will get the money in along run but taking +8 in along run into a concrete line the book will beat you in the long run there.
2. if you bet over 206 on a total and the total goes to 210 everywhere and you comeback and bet under 210. dont worry the book will beat you in along run betting under 210 into the concrete line. same thing if you bet over 206 for the game and they score 120 pts in the 1st half and its a blow out the total will be adjusted to the blow out so if you bet under going for a middle you are not stealing nothing there either, if its a close game at the half and you want to go for a middle and everybody puts up the same total you are not stealing nothing unless you find a book out of line and you want to hedge alittle its nothing wrong with that. I"m just saying if you have so much the best of the original bet why on earth would you want to give anything away when you have that much the best of it. thats why mosts books are not scared of middlers, reason when you are going for the middle you are betting into a concrete line your original bet will take home the cheese in along run, and I gurantee you betting into any concrete line without having the best of the number you have way the worst of it. Frog kills me he thinks I just talk BS if thats what he thinks more power to him. my name is not God, but I know one thing for sure if you beat the line you beat the game. its real simple if you think about it, how can you lose if you beat the line consistenly
RB- I think there is value on both ends of the spectrum.........the better end which will obviously be dependant on the sport itself, the line, and other intangible factors.
I actually agree witb both of you and actually wager on both ends of the spectrum..............and sometimes both when attempting a middle.
-F-
I actually agree witb both of you and actually wager on both ends of the spectrum..............and sometimes both when attempting a middle.
-F-
Rainbow, on that example, what if you bet the O206, line goes to 209, but you can get a rogue U210 number. Might not both sides of the middle take the cash in the long-run with both sides having a pos expectation? It is possible for both sides of a middle to have + return and it is impossible to dilute a good bet with another good bet. A good middler who gets great numbers on the buyback can win at both types of shops.
Fishhead said:
Fish I understand what you are saying, I just think that in along run if you go over 206 you wll defintely get the money, and the person that bets under 210 and thats the market everywhere, me myself I think I will beat the guy going under 210 in along run. I might be wrong but thats my belief.
