Higher total games lead to slight shading of the ML. Usually not all that noticeable though, but it certainly makes sense to give a little more thought to money line when betting a game in a high-scoring matchup or park.
When doing your comparisons and trying to get a feel for how to approach this, be sure you are thinking in percentages, not cents on a line. At -200, 20 cents means little in percentage terms. At even money, a 20 cent move is a big jump in percentage terms.
When doing your comparisons and trying to get a feel for how to approach this, be sure you are thinking in percentages, not cents on a line. At -200, 20 cents means little in percentage terms. At even money, a 20 cent move is a big jump in percentage terms.
Well I guess I should have been a little more clear in my question. What I'm doing is establishing a "score" for each team and then wanting to play off of that number. For instance on 04/06/05 I have SF being approximately a 1 run favorite over LA. What would be the appropriate amount of money I would have to lay when playing SF? Another example...I have ARI being about a 1/2 run favorite over the Cubs tomorrow. How much would that half a run equate to?
Now I have other goofy fractional run amounts I have teams favored by. This is a product of my sabermetric appproach to projecting the scores. I guess the real trigger points for me would be 1/2, 1 and 1 1/2 runs. I could extrapolate in between.
Now I have other goofy fractional run amounts I have teams favored by. This is a product of my sabermetric appproach to projecting the scores. I guess the real trigger points for me would be 1/2, 1 and 1 1/2 runs. I could extrapolate in between.
