at preseason, april, march better to play underdogs.
from besballformula:
4-1 again yesterday based on final Wagerline odds; one NO PLAY on Bost/Toronto with Toronto ending as the dog on Wagerline. 8-2 on the year...Great start to the year! Up 7.78 units after just two days.....Good luck.
The Baseball Formula Newsletter
Volume 4, Number 3
Plays for:
Sun Apr. 10
Dogs Formula:
YTD Performance:
+7.78 units (based on 1 unit per play)
Yesterday's Recap:
+ 3.65 units (based on 1 unit per play)
American League:
--Detroit, not Cleveland was the dog at game time at Wagerline.com, and they won
--Boston was not the dog at game time on Wagerline.com, so no play there
--Texas wins
--Chicago wins
National League:
--Los Angeles wins, Reds lose
Game Times are Eastern Standard
Dog Plays are in CAPS
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Dogs Formula
See below for our line grading policy. It will explain how we are coming up with our official plays each day and how we are grading our official plays. Or re-read the "Dogs Line Policy" email that was sent out.
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Notes:
We couldn't ask for two better days to start the season. But please take a realistic approach. We're not going to keep winning like this every day. We are fortunate enough to start the season with 2 hot days. We will have more hot runs. But, there will also be losing days and losing weeks.
The Dodgers really miss our Main Man, Gagne. Playing dogs, you see 9th inning collapses all too often. In fact, the Reds blew it on us tonight. You get to the point where you just want to put a chokehold on some of these inept closers. Danny Graves, Brandon Looper, and a few others will make you pull your hair out.
That's why we love Gagne so much. If we are on Los Angeles, and they have the late-inning lead, it's game over and the money is in the bank with Gagne in there. But as we saw tonight, LA blew it in the 9th without Gagne and dern near blew it again in the 12th inning. We got lucky there.
And in all fairness, Texas got a little lucky too, scoring 4 in the ninth inning to win. But, we'll take it. There will be times when we aren't so lucky.
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Our returning subscribers will remember this, but for our new subscribers, we should point out that our comments next to some the plays are just our opinions. Our opinions do not factor into the formula. Playing dogs can be a little daunting at times. Given that, some of our comments next to the games can sound slightly worrisome. As one of our subscribers said last year, "some days you look at the card and think we're going to go 0-6."
The natural tendency in wagering is to think that the favorite is going to win, which is why they are the favorite. But, we do have a long term edge here with this formula.
Our opinions on the games can throw some people off. But it bears repeating - our subjective opinions are just that - opinions. And our personal feelings about the possible outcomes of the game don't factor into the formula.
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-- The formula is on some pretty hefty dogs today, and we're due for a bit of a 'market correction' if you will. After two big days playing dogs, we could get hammered here. Let's hope a couple fairly big dogs bite today.
American League:
CLEVELAND +130 @ Detroit, 1PM...Bonderman can be tough, and these Tigers are a far cry from the 2003 version. Let's hope Cleveland can rebound today.
CLE: J. Davis (0-0, 0.00)
DET: J. Bonderman (1-0, 1.29)
BALTIMORE +153 @ New York, 1PM...Yankees will be hard to beat here with Pavano. Clearly a longshot for Baltimore.
BAL: R. López (1-0, 0.00)
NYY: C. Pavano (0-0, 2.84)
TEXAS +112 @ Seattle, 4PM...We love the early ERA on Meche. Both these teams are a tough nut to crack. Many pundits had Texas finishing in 2nd place this year. We're not so sure.
TEX: R. Drese (0-1, 3.86)
SEA: G. Meche (0-0, 8.31)
CHICAGO +146 @ Minnesota, 8PM...The Chisox want some respect, and they have been very impressive so far this season. But Santana made beautiful music all last year, and sweeping the Twins at the Glad Bag dome will be pretty hard.
CWS: M. Buehrle (1-0, 0.00)
MIN: J. Santana (1-0, 7.20)
National League:
New York @ ATLANTA +108, 1PM...NO PLAY ON NEW YORK if they are the dog at game time on Wagerline.com.
What an intriguing matchup here. Pedro versus the former great closer, Smoltz. Pedro was not so good on the road last year. And the Mets have been just awful so far in 2005. The Braves are at it again. Love them or hate them, you have to give it up to Bobby Cox and the Atlanta franchise. They might just win yet another division title again this year.
NYM: P. Martínez (0-0, 4.50)
ATL: J. Smoltz (0-1, 32.40)
PHILADELPHIA +150 @ St. Louis, 2PM...St. Louis got blown out yesterday, and beating them at Busch Stadium is very hard to do back to back days. There are two games were not very hopeful about today. This one and the Baltimore game (just our subjective opinion). Carpenter is lights out when he's in a groove.
PHI: J. Lieber (1-0, 4.76)
STL: C. Carpenter (1-0, 1.29)
LOS ANGELES +100 @ Arizona, 4:40PM...Two good pitchers matching up here. NO PLAY ON ARIZONA if they are the dog at game time on Wagerline.com.
LAD: D. Lowe (0-1, 2.57)
ARI: R. Ortiz (1-0, 4.50)
