1st Play of the Season

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UF. Champion U.
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Been out of town for the past few days. Baseball is my sport being a former player. Never capped it before last season's playoffs. Went 8-0 in the playoffs last year and this is my first time playing regular season. Two plays caught my eye today before researching any others.

Plays are rated 1*-5*(highest)

2* Braves @ Marlins OV 7.5 runs
2* Marlins -125


John Smoltz vs. Josh Beckett. Sounds like a pitcher's duel huh? Not exactly. While Smoltz and Beckett pitched very well in Spring Training, they never went deep into starts. Smoltz returns to the starting role and people aren't acting like this is a big move. Going from a closer to a starter is a very hard thing to do. If Smoltz lasts more than 5 innings today I will be very surprised. Beckett has come off of an inconsistent year and has a lot of pressure on him this year to be the Golden Boy. Marlins are 6-5 on opening day and own the Braves. I think the key to this game is a big run inning in the 5th off of Smoltz. I think both teams will put up at least 3-4 runs a piece, but I think the Marlins win on opening day with the public thinking there is value with the Braves.
 

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Thanks guys. JFS your card looks good, too. Good to see you in this forum too Tulsa. Always a pleasure.

Was in a bit of a hurry earlier and didn't get a chance to do a better write-up. But I think the key to this game is John Smoltz. This guy is coming off Tommy John in 2001, has been closing for 3 years, and I'm anxious to see how he responds to a very tough challenge of starting again. When he was a closer he could just lock and load and let it rip for an inning. He has to learn to pace himself now and back off of his velocity a bit. I'm curious to see how this effects his command and release point adjustments. Backing off of velocity typically allows the ball to stay a bit up in the zone and I think the Marlins could see a few belt high mistakes today. The other thing is his arm fatigue should be a factor. Right around the 5th inning I'm looking for Florida to hang a 3 spot on him, and this game should feature a lot of bullpen work. Factor in it's a pretty hot day in Miami, and Smoltz is pitching in unfriendly confines.
Juan Pierre will start for the Marlins and he's the catalyst of their team. Conine is out but Encarnacion will get the start in right. So, both teams field solid lineups that should be able to go over the 7.5 on two suspect opening day starters: one coming from being a closer and hasn't started in 5 years and the other coming off of an injury plagued season.

Opening day so these plays are only 2*. For the first few weeks of the season, I doubt I'll go any higher than 2* or 3* plays just to get a feel for how all of the teams look. Does anyone else follow this same strategy or is everyone else lock and load regardless?
 

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That was the Smoltz I expected. As the year progresses he will probably get better and then I will fade him again as the year wears on his arm.

Easy 1st two wins, I wish they were all like that.

Stuck with two future studs for tonights games, Johan Santana and Scott Kazmir. Kazmir is a stud, and I'm hoping with a few big league games under his belt last year, he won't feel much pressure tonight and do his thing.

Twins are an up and coming team, and hitters love coming out to the yard with their ace on the hill. Twins will play well behind their horse tonight and if they win should cover the 1.5.
 

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Id say the Twins have been up and coming for the past 3 yrs wouldnt u. LOL:lolBIG:
 

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Last Game:

2*
Rangers @ Angels OVER 9.5

Recap:

Marlins ML - W
Braves/Marlins OV 7.5 - W
DRays ML - Pending
Twins -1.5 Runs - Pending
Rangers/Angels OVER 9.5 - Pending
 
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