Series Sweeps System

ChooseORLose · Apr 6, 2005

This is a work in progress. I don't recommend anybody play these with real monies because I'm still working on the formula. This sytem will basically attempt to determine if a home team playing for a sweep will finish it out or a home team about to get swept will prevent it. I will be running a season long thread on this for tracking purposes. All plays are for 1 unit.

Playing for the sweep:

New York Yankees -172
Risking 100 to win 58.14

Playing not to be swept:

Tampa Bay DevilRays -122
Risking 100 to win 81.97

SSI · Apr 6, 2005

did a version of this last year... i am also doing something similiar this year. good luck on it..

Lexis · Apr 6, 2005

Best of Luck

k:

ChooseORLose · Apr 6, 2005

Thanks guys, we'll see what happens. looking a little bleak right now as the Yankees are down one but we got time.

SSI---can you tell me a little about how yours work, I see you got a lot of plays they aren't all the same system are they. thanks

SSI · Apr 6, 2005

yes they are all of the same system, lets just say that im playing a team -- not to be swept.. we are both on TB, lets hope they win..

Last year, i was more or less randomly picking teams -- that i thought would not be swept over a 3 game series, but it had too much of the martingale approach to it.. this year ive toned it down from that..

ChooseORLose · Apr 6, 2005

good luck, I started noticing the potential in this a while back. We'll see how this goes!

SSI · Apr 6, 2005

you played the yanks to sweep today, i played the redsox not to get swept.. similiar systems on one hand, very different on the other.. ill be looking in from time to time.. good luck..

ChooseORLose · Apr 6, 2005

Playing to sweep: 0-1 -100
Against the sweep: 1-0 +81.97
Overall: 1-1 -18.03

Like I said this is a work in progress. I hope to be successful on this and as we all know this is a long season. There will be more plays, some potentially tomorrow.

RPM · Apr 6, 2005

it will be very interesting and informative to track this system this season. i hope you stick with it. :103631605

ChooseORLose · Apr 6, 2005

Yeah, well this is a work in progress. It may not make much money this season but I hope that it will eventually come together and profit for the future. We'll see.

bearmelt · Apr 6, 2005

I play teams to avoid the sweep. I give more weight to home teams and 'good' teams. Other factors are who the teams are playing in their next series and whether they will be resting some regulars or saving their pen. Some teams are 'satisfied' that they've won the series. Others might feel that they 'need' to sweep. Rivalries come into play too.

I remember one time last year that the Yankees were poised to sweep an inferior team (Tampa?), but had the Red Sox next. They rested their entire pen and had a long man pitch all of the relief. It was almost like a spring training game. They rested several starters too and mailed it in. They were probably still -190 before the lineups were announced.

RPM · Apr 6, 2005

bearmelt,

interesting post. what teams do you feel are satisfied with only winning the series?

i find that a little strange just because at the end of the season its total wins that matter, not how many series you won.

Kruser6 · Apr 7, 2005

I will be posting my system plays starting Friday. They are very similiar to this post and have been VERY profitable in the past. Good luck guys, I will be seeing you around.

Choose or lose. . .You really arent on any kind of a system are you? Basically you are just capping the third game of a series. Hope all works out for you, however be very careful playing on teams for a sweep, especially highly favored ones. The only time I would play a team to sweep is one on a great winning streak, because as we all now. . .Streaks are huge in baseball and if you get on the right side of one they can make your season!

SHACK · Apr 7, 2005

Good points in here. If random I would always go for the "no sweep." Especially early in the year. But when teams get hot you got to ride them out, that's when sweeps happen is when a team gets on fire. I made a bunch of change about 4 or 5 years ago when the Mariners came out of the gate like a MF er. The lines were cheap too. Oakland seems to get on their streaks in the 2nd half of the year, but their time has probably come and gone.

ChooseORLose · Apr 7, 2005

Man great input guys.

Bearmelt--thanks for that insight on the look ahead. i'm definetly going to look into that.

Kruser--your right this isn'ts a system, i just didn't know what to call it you know. if figure the alliteration sounded nice. I don't have any algorithms or stuff like that. I just have some criteria I use to make my decisions.

From the info, I'm getting here and just from yesterdays game, I am going to go back and look into the teams playing to sweep. I will try to limit all these plays so that we may find a larger win percentage. be back

ChooseORLose · Apr 7, 2005

Once again these are capped and I don't recommend you play these blindly.
Playing to sweep: 0-1 -100
Against the sweep: 1-0 +81.97
Overall: 1-1 -18.03

Playing for the sweep:

Cincinnati Reds +100
Risking 100 to win 100

Playing not to be swept:

Cleveland Indians +107
Risking 100 to win 107

Both lines at Pinny.

SSI · Apr 7, 2005

with you on clev and its a 2 unit play for me.. against you on the reds, im on the mets but for one unit only..

ChooseORLose · Apr 7, 2005

I see that. Good luck today. We'll see what happens. The Reds are pretty hot and tend to start strong. Plus Ishii tends to walk a lot of batters while Harang seems to be a solid pitcher. As for Cleveland I'd make it a larger play but it's a long season and not in the mood to start stressing little games you know. Lee is a good pitcher and other than Konerko, hitting .571, the rest of the sox bats haven't come to yet and they are batting a woeful .173. Hope these stays true.

ChooseORLose · Apr 8, 2005

Playing to sweep: 1-1 +0.0
Against the sweep: 2-0 +188.97
Overall: 3-1 +188.97

No series plays today. Doesn't look like we'll have anything until Sunday. Good luck on all your action.

bearmelt · Apr 8, 2005

RPM

Good point. Actually, I agree. I started to think that this was just a media creation, but check out this quote:

``That was a big game for us to win. It gets us over .500,'' said Nationals manager Frank Robinson, who led the Expos to a last-place finish in the NL East last season.

``We win the first series of the season. That's what we want to try to do -- win series. If we do that, we are going to be all right.

``It's a nice start to the season.''

Sounds like this might be one team 'satisfied' with winning a series. Okay, it was the last two games, but I hear this all the time. Most mediocre teams are thrilled to go on the road to a tough park and take 2 of 3. It's human nature to let down if you win the first two. When a manager has this mindset, he will certainly rest stars, banged up players and his bullpen. Where's Pete Rose when you need him? lol

Choose - GL with your plays. You seem to have a feel for which way to go when a sweep is possible. This is actually the opposite of a system. Can be much more valuable, but difficult to quantify. Feel free to talkme out of blindly playing against a sweep if a team is ripe to be swept.