Comeback Theory Plays - Season

4/6 1-1 +5 (based on 100 to avoid decimals)
Alt RL 0-1 -50 (1/2 unit). This was a personal play. Keeping this seperate. Above record is to track the system. All system plays are for one unit.

4/7
Wash +145
Nats scored 4 in the 8th off Tim Worrell, coming back from a 3-2 deficit

CWS -110
Sox scored 4 bottom 9 off Wickman to win 4-3!

Sorry this is late. Can't always post, but these are easy to find in the box scores.

I'd be careful with the Sox. Tribe is looking to avoid the sweep, another system I use, though on the road I don't feel holds as much weight unless it is a really good road team. Still, Contreras isn't fooling anyone and Cliff Lee was great early. Sox were 21-35 vs. lefites in '04, 12-16 at home (62-44, 34-19 vs. R). They lost some hitting since and are thrilled to be 2-0 after only scoring in 2 innings. The comeback win has to boost their confidence, so I'll still play them small. 4 in the bottom of the ninth down 3-0 is a classic comeback win. If Cleveland can bounce back and avoid the sweep on the road, that will show me something. I guess we'll see which system is more powerful. I'm not a straight system player. These are great tools, but you still have to use comon sense and weigh all the factors.

4/7 1-1 +35
Total 2-2 +40
Pen disease is contagious. CWS caught it from Clev. Apparently it has spread leaguewide. 11 of 21 blown saves!

4/8 Comeback Plays
TB +100 from Wed
Bos -126 from Wed
Wash +155
Clev +129

Plays against the choke teams (NYY, CWS, Phi) Tor is already playing Bos. This is a variation on the original system. I never followed this too closely before, so proceed with caution. These will count separately.

4/8 Choke Fades
Bal +166
Min -130
St.L -164 or -1.5 +125 Personally, I don't lay over -145. Sometimes I'll split ML/RL in this range.

4/8 Comeback 3-1 +229
Comeback Total 5-3 +269
Choke Fades 1-1-1 +36
Total 9-5-1 +305

Nats lost after back to back comebacks. Perhaps that takes too much out of a team and we should consider fading them in that role. Or, sometimes talent just wins out over emotion. I was nervous about facing Willis, so I only put 1/2 unit on it. Sorry I didn't post it that way. I often do that with a big dog, play to win a unit or close to it. That is subjective though. Tracking the system is another matter. I urge you all to use common sense.

St. Louis won 6-5, but I am not counting it as a win. I implied that I would split my play ML/RL and that is what I did. I just can't condone laying that kind of juice.

are you counting it if it is a comeback in the 8th., or just 9th. trying to get this down because i like it.
tw

Sat 4/9
LAD
Milw
St.L
Col? 8 runs in the 7th down 0-6. Wow.

<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="columnrow" align="center"><th align="left" width="30%">Bottom 8th</th><td width="5%">1</td><td width="5%">2</td><td width="5%">3</td><td width="5%">4</td><td width="5%">5</td><td width="5%">6</td><td width="5%">7</td><td width="5%">8</td><td width="5%">9</td><th width="6%">R</th><th width="6%">H</th><th width="6%">E</th></tr><tr class="scoresrow" align="center"><td class="MLBCOL" align="left" height="17" nowrap="nowrap">Colorado</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>8</td><td>0</td><td>
</td><th>8</th><th>9</th><th>0</th></tr><tr class="scoresrow" align="center"><td class="MLBSF" align="left" height="17" nowrap="nowrap">San Francisco</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td class="finalscore">1</td><td>
</td><th>7</th><th>12</th><th>1</th></tr></tbody></table> <table class="scoresrow" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr><td id="situation543128" align="right"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="56"><tbody><tr><td rowspan="3" width="6">
</td><td id="ball1-543128" class="ball" height="8" width="8">
</td><td id="ball2-543128" class="hide" height="8" width="8">
</td><td id="ball3-543128" class="hide" height="8" width="8">
</td><td rowspan="3" id="third-543128" class="hide" height="25" width="8">
</td><td rowspan="3" id="second-543128" class="onbase" height="25" width="8">
</td><td rowspan="3" id="first-543128" class="onbase" height="25" width="9">
</td></tr><tr><td id="strike1-543128" class="strike" height="8" width="8">
</td><td id="strike2-543128" class="hide" height="8" width="8">
</td><td class="bg2" height="8" width="8">
</td></tr><tr><td id="out1-543128" class="out" height="8" width="8">
</td><td id="out2-543128" class="out" height="8" width="8">
</td><td class="bg2" height="8" width="8">
</td></tr></tbody></table>


</td></tr></tbody> </table> R. Speier
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="bg3" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left"><table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="86" width="503"><tbody><tr> <td align="left" valign="top"><table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="columnrow" align="center"><th align="left" width="30%">Final</th><td width="5%">1</td><td width="5%">2</td><td width="5%">3</td><td width="5%">4</td><td width="5%">5</td><td width="5%">6</td><td width="5%">7</td><td width="5%">8</td><td width="5%">9</td><th width="6%">R</th><th width="6%">H</th><th width="6%">E</th></tr><tr class="scoresrow" align="center"><td class="MLBLA" align="left" height="17" nowrap="nowrap">L.A. Dodgers «</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>4</td><th class="finalscore">8</th><th>11</th><th>0</th></tr><tr class="scoresrow" align="center"><td class="MLBARI" align="left" height="17" nowrap="nowrap">Arizona</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><th class="finalscore">7</th><th>7</th><th>1</th></tr></tbody></table> <table class="" id="alerts543124" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="scoresrow" valign="top"> <td><table class="scoresrow" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td id="situation543124" align="right">
</td></tr></tbody></table>W: S. Schmoll (1-0) L: B. Lyon (0-1)
S: Y. Brazoban (1)
HR: LA - O. Saenz (1), J. Valentin (2) ARI - C. Tracy (1), J. Cruz (2), T. Glaus (2)</td></tr></tbody> </table> </td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> </tr> <tr class="columnrow" align="center"><th align="left" width="30%">
</th><td width="5%">
</td><td width="5%">
</td><td width="5%">
</td><td width="5%">
</td><td width="5%">
</td><td width="5%">
</td><td width="5%">
</td><td width="5%">
</td><td width="5%">
</td><th width="6%">
</th><th width="6%">
</th><th width="6%">
</th></tr><tr class="scoresrow" align="center"><td class="MLBCOL" align="left" height="17" nowrap="nowrap">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><th>
</th><th>
</th><th>
</th></tr><tr class="scoresrow" align="center"><td class="MLBSF" align="left" height="17" nowrap="nowrap">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="finalscore">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><th>
</th><th>
</th><th>
</th></tr></tbody></table><table class="" id="alerts543128" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="scoresrow" valign="top"> <td>
</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="scoresrow"><td><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="22" width="457"><tbody><tr valign="bottom"><td id="links543128" nowrap="nowrap">
</td><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td colspan="1"> </td></tr><tr class="bg3" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="columnrow" align="center"><th align="left" width="30%">Final 12th</th><td width="5%">1</td><td width="5%">2</td><td width="5%">3</td><td width="5%">4</td><td width="5%">5</td><td width="5%">6</td><td width="5%">7</td><td width="5%">8</td><td width="5%">9</td><td width="5%">10</td><td width="5%">11</td><td width="5%">12</td><th width="6%">R</th><th width="6%">H</th><th width="6%">E</th></tr><tr class="scoresrow" align="center"><td class="MLBMIL" align="left" height="17" nowrap="nowrap">Milwaukee «</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><th class="finalscore">6</th><th>12</th><th>1</th></tr><tr class="scoresrow" align="center"><td class="MLBCHC" align="left" height="17" nowrap="nowrap">Chi. Cubs</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><th class="finalscore">3</th><th>7</th><th>1</th></tr></tbody></table><table id="alerts543114" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="scoresrow" valign="top"> <td><table class="scoresrow" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td id="situation543114" align="right">
</td></tr></tbody></table>W: J. De La Rosa (1-0) L: J. Leicester (0-1)
S: M. Adams (1)
HR: MIL - None CHC - None</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="scoresrow"><td><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr valign="bottom"><td id="links543114" nowrap="nowrap">GameCenter:Recap/Box</td><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> Add to GameTracker</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td colspan="1"> </td></tr><tr class="bg3" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left"> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="columnrow" align="center"><th align="left" width="30%">Final</th><td width="5%">1</td><td width="5%">2</td><td width="5%">3</td><td width="5%">4</td><td width="5%">5</td><td width="5%">6</td><td width="5%">7</td><td width="5%">8</td><td width="5%">9</td><th width="6%">R</th><th width="6%">H</th><th width="6%">E</th></tr><tr class="scoresrow" align="center"><td class="MLBPHI" align="left" height="17" nowrap="nowrap">Philadelphia</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><th class="finalscore">5</th><th>12</th><th>1</th></tr><tr class="scoresrow" align="center"><td class="MLBSTL" align="left" height="17" nowrap="nowrap">St. Louis «</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>x</td><th class="finalscore">6</th><th>10</th><th>1</th></tr></tbody></table><table id="alerts543116" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="scoresrow" valign="top"> <td><table class="scoresrow" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td id="situation543116" align="right">
</td></tr></tbody></table>W: A. Reyes (1-0) L: R. Madson (0-1)
S: J. Isringhausen (2)
HR: PHI - None STL - None</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody> </table>

TW
I did reply the other night, but it was kinda late. I'm counting 7th or later, but feel free to set your own parameters and get a feel for it. This was originally given to me by an old timer 25 years ago as bottom of the ninth, but I've expanded it over the years. For example, I don't give as much weight to a 12-11 bandbox slugfest that went back and forth. A team that was down the whole game and seemignly comes back from the dead is more compelling, even if it is in the 7th or 8th. I also include a team that ties the game late after being down, then wins in extras. Just be careful they aren't playing a fresh team after depleting their pen for 16 innings. Nats were spent today after 2 emotional wins and ran out of gas. Flying to Florida and facing Willis didn't help.

Thanks, clears up everything. i will try to keep up with them also.

good luck
tw

o ya, looks like s.f will be out play tomorrow. baseball is crazy, thats why i like systems like this, it takes the guess work out.

Sat 4/9

St.L +145
Milw +130
SF -142
LAD +114

I had a bad feeling about posting the SF/Col box score in the 8th. At least I put a ? after Col, lol. I had no play on the game. Didn't mean to jinx any COl players, not that I believe in jinxes.

Some nice dogs today, as most have been. Might take it easy on some depending on the matchups.

Also, unless I am going to be out, I always use listed pitchers, even though these are team plays. The reason is that the line could change dramatically. I am an avid line shopper and don't want to be locked into that books new line after a pitching change. I will track these as action though, since I am not always around to change things.

Very rare to get this many plays every day. Usually one or two and not every day. Shows the state of today's bullpens. It's so easy to get carried away with starting pitching stats, especially when rushed. That is one reason I follow these. Most starters go 6 at best. Then come the firemen with their gasoline. That is why I use 7th inning or later. Sometimes even 6th, as this is when the starter tires. You can sense the hitters eyes light up. I'll stick with the 7th+ for these posts.

Oops! Almost forgot one.

Adding:

Sat 4/9
Sea -133

STL +145 was a typo. Should have read StL -145

Sat 4/9 2-3 -164
Total 11-8-1+141

St.L - 145 L
Milw +130 L
SF -142 W
LAD +114 W
Sea -133 L

Sun 4/10

NYY -163/-1.5 +130 5 bottom 7 to win 8-5
SF -197/-1.5 +110 4 bottom 8 to win 4-2
TX +112 4 top 9 to win 7-6 to beat us after M’s scored 4 bottom 8.

This is the second alternating comeback this season. Cle/CWS both won the first game of their next series’. SF is the second B2B comeback. Was came back on the Phils twice, then ran out of gas after traveling to FL, shut down by Willis 9-0. This is a different situation, but Col will be looking to avoid a sweep (albeit on the road), so use caution, especially at this price. Rockies pen certainly has issues though.

Lean:
Hou –147/-1.5 +145

‘Stros scored 3 to tie bottom 6 off starter Wilson. Viscaino doubled in Tavares from first after failing to get a bunt down with 0 outs bottom 9. 6th inning is slightly outside the guidelines, but the 9th inning walkoff provides the emotion. Big # was posted. Opened –170 at Cris, -157 at Pinny. Line has dropped .10. Oswalt still inflated after getting rocked in opener by Cards. Milton did give up 3 on 9 hits in 5 1/3 to the Mets, lol. Public still fading Hou sans Berkman and off-season losses. They are 3-1 though after winning 3 straight. Reds looking to avoid the sweep, but they are also on the road. Let’s see if the price continues to plummet.

4/10
Adding:
Hou -137

Sun 4/10

NYY -163/-1.5 +130 L -131.50
SF -197/-1.5 +110 W +105
TX +112 W +112
Hou -137 W +100
TOTAL 3-1 +185.50
YTD 14-9-1 +326.50


Mon 4/11

NYM Mets juggernaut explodes in 8th despite Smoltz's 15 K's. No pen used! Line dropping already for much hyped home opener. CB win might have saved them from unmerciful 0-6 booing. Hou smoke & mirror win streak in jeopordy. Things must even out, right? Can Glavine get that outside strike call at home?

WAS Atl wastes Smoltz gem. If Mutts can exploit Bravo's pen, so can never say die Nats.
TX B2B CB roadshow to LAA, reeling from being swept at home by KC:scared:

KC M's blew 2 leads to TX, now must travel east to KC's home opener. Royals out to prove they are not MLB's worst team. Can anyone say over 65 wins?

WOW, bearmelt!! Keep it up! I will definitely be paying much better attention to your threads!! THANKS for sharing the winners with us and taking the time. Again, keep it up! tulsa

Thanx Tulsa! Love the avatar! Well, yesterday was better than Saturday. Imagine if Pavano hadn't taken that liner in the head. Coulda been 4-0. I'll keep going until life gets in the way, lol. Hope someone takes up the slack for me when/if that happens. All it takes is checking the box scores and live lines.

Mon 4/11

NYM -114
WAS +146 waiting for +150+
TX +100
KC -102 wating for +$

KC -102 still a play. Doesn't look like they will become a dog.
Was +148 now. Still waiting for +150, but still a play at this #. Just didn't want to confuse anyone. I put 'waiting' because I thought the line would move in our favor. I like to shop, but won't cancel a play over a few cents.