I've thought and thought about this, and still don't know how I'd advise him, if he was my own son. He's definitely a first-rounder, and that comes with $3 million over 3 years, guaranteed. That's a bare minimum. To me, I just don't know if he's a lottery pick, simply because he hasn't shown that he can drive to the cup and finish. As a fan, I hope he comes back, because if he does, the Illini will be just as good next year as they were this year.
Of course he should leave. I doubt his stock could get any higher as it is right now. I guarantee this NBA scouts are drooling over this kid. Everything you could want in a point guard except for free thow shooting. He doesn't turn the ball over, plays great defense, can penetrate, is extemely unselfish, and knows how to control a game from the point. And he just showcased this in the greatest stage in college hoops. He will be starting in the league for a long time.
Let's say Williams goes somewhere between 6th and 10th in the draft this year. If he stayed one more year, got more consistent with his jump shot and toned his body a little more, he could be the top pick, depending who else is in the draft and what team is picking first. Here is the 2004-2005 rookie salary scale:
2004-05 NBA Rookie Scale
<TT>Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Opt 5th Qualifying</TT>
<TT>1 $3,483,100 $3,744,300 $4,005,600 26.1% 30.0%</TT>
<TT>2 $3,116,400 $3,350,100 $3,583,800 26.2% 30.5%</TT>
<TT>3 $2,798,600 $3,008,500 $3,218,400 26.4% 31.2%</TT>
<TT>4 $2,523,200 $2,712,400 $2,901,600 26.5% 31.9%</TT>
<TT>5 $2,284,900 $2,456,200 $2,627,600 26.7% 32.6%</TT>
<TT>6 $2.075,300 $2,231,000 $2,386,600 26.8% 33.4%</TT>
<TT>7 $1,894,500 $2,036,600 $2,178,700 27.0% 34.1%</TT>
<TT>8 $1,735,600 $1,865,800 $1,996,000 27.2% 34.8%</TT>
<TT>9 $1,595,400 $1,715,000 $1,834,700 27.4% 35.5%</TT>
<TT>10 $1,515,600 $1,629,300 $1,742,900 27.5% 36.2%</TT>
<TT>11 $1,439,800 $1,547,800 $1,655,800 32.7% 36.9%</TT>
<TT>12 $1,367,800 $1,470,400 $1,573,000 37.8% 37.6%</TT>
<TT>13 $1,299,400 $1,396,900 $1,494,300 42.9% 38.3%</TT>
<TT>14 $1,234,500 $1,327,000 $1,419,600 48.1% 39.1%</TT>
<TT>15 $1,172,700 $1,260,700 $1,348,600 53.3% 39.8%</TT>
<TT>16 $1,114,100 $1,197,700 $1,281,200 53.4% 40.5%</TT>
<TT>17 $1,058,400 $1,137,800 $1,217,200 53.6% 41.2%</TT>
<TT>18 $1,005,500 $1,080,900 $1,156,300 53.8% 41.9%</TT>
<TT>19 $960,200 $1,032,200 $1,104,300 54.0% 42.6%</TT>
<TT>20 $921,800 $991,000 $1,060,100 54.2% 43.3%</TT>
<TT>21 $884,900 $951,300 $1,017,700 59.3% 44.1%</TT>
<TT>22 $849,500 $913,300 $977,000 64.5% 44.8%</TT>
<TT>23 $815,600 $876,700 $937,900 69.7% 45.5%</TT>
<TT>24 $782,900 $841,700 $900,400 74.9% 46.2%</TT>
<TT>25 $751,600 $808,000 $864,400 80.1% 46.9%</TT>
<TT>26 $726,700 $781,200 $835,700 80.3% 47.6%</TT>
<TT>27 $705,700 $758,700 $811,600 80.4% 48.3%</TT>
<TT>28 $701,400 $754,000 $806,600 80.5% 49.0%</TT>
<TT>29 $696,300 $748,500 $800,700 80.5% 50.0%</TT>
As you can see, he stands to gain a good deal of money by improving his draft position. He would be smart to not hire an agent and wait a while to see where he will ge picked. If he's not in the top five, I think he should stay, as long as he can continue to support his kid for another year in Champaign. Of course, I want him to stay so they can try again for the national title. I do think that if he waits a year he'll be the first point guard taken, whereas this year some misguided team will take Chris Paul ahead of him, simply because Dickie V was on his nutsack all year.
I must ge blind, I don't think the guy is anything special at all. He better take the cash, he won't be anything special in the NBA...one thing he does have a nice big body and that will help...I could be wrong and I don't mean to take shots at the mighty Illini ( I know how much you love these guys)...He seems to be more of a tweener player, time will tell.
Journeyman said:
I guess I both agree and disagree. He's not special like Chris Paul, in that he doesn't make flashy, unbelieveable plays on the offensive end. I don't know if he can finish. I bet he can, he just hasn't shown it, because he's been almost too unselfish. He is not an exceptional shooter, either. But I know how much you love Reddick, and he will 10x the player Reddick is in the NBA. He's a baller and plays a complete game.....distributing and handling the ball, and playing very, very good defense. How much scoring do you need to do as a point guard, if you can d up like he can, and run an offense like he can? On the other hand, he may make a lot more money if he can come back for another year and score a lot more on the college level.
No no no...I do not LOVE Reddick...i despise all Duke players...I don't think Reddick is going to be anything great in the NBA either...I do think Reddick could start for Illinois though lol...Which some said he would not....
Please don't think I love Reddick, Like I said i could be wrong , I don't get to see Illinois all that much , when I did he never impressed me...I see Reddick and Paul all the time.
Please don't think I love Reddick, Like I said i could be wrong , I don't get to see Illinois all that much , when I did he never impressed me...I see Reddick and Paul all the time.
I agree, he's not on Andre Miller's level yet. I don't think he'll ever be that good, but you never know. He sucked as a freshman, and has improved so much each of the last two years. He has got to learn to shoot 85% from the line. Sorry about implicating you, J-Man, in the Reddick case.
I have seen mock drafts with Willliams going as high as 4th, with Chris Paul going 2nd. I wouldn't draft either guy that high, but if they were accurate, then you'd have to think that if Williams would go 4th with a shaky outside shot he would go even higher if he could hit consistently. I am just afraid that Williams will get drafted by the Lakers who will hold the 10th or 11th pick and desperately need a point guard. Then I might have to stop hating the Lakers as much as I do. I don't think Chris Paul is special at all, he's soft and he'll be a bust in the NBA. When he played against Illinois he looked like the 4th best guard on the floor that night. That cheap shot to the nuts he gave to Julius Hodge is what defines him in my opinion.
Journeyman said:
Here's one, with Paul going 3rd and Williams 5th. I don't know how reputable this site is though. I can't remember where I saw Paul 2nd and Williams 4th. This one actually does incorporate several foreigners, but its shortcoming is that it doesn't mention what teams will be drafting in each position, which would obviously make a difference.
http://www.insidehoops.com/nba-mock-draft.shtml
I don't think the guy is going to be a "star" in the NBA cause he doesn't have the killer scorer's instinct. Also he does need to improve his J, and free throw %.
That being said I think he is the type of P.G. that will be extremely valuable to certain NBA teams. I have seen him play 35 games this year. He's just so good with the ball, and finding the open man. He has strength, ability to penetrate, and outstanding defense. Plus he never turns the ball over. I don't think his stock can go up and he should enter the draft now.
Of the 3 Illy gaurds he will be the only one to have any real NBA career. He will be around a long time IMO. He is the reason Illinois won 37 games.
That being said I think he is the type of P.G. that will be extremely valuable to certain NBA teams. I have seen him play 35 games this year. He's just so good with the ball, and finding the open man. He has strength, ability to penetrate, and outstanding defense. Plus he never turns the ball over. I don't think his stock can go up and he should enter the draft now.
Of the 3 Illy gaurds he will be the only one to have any real NBA career. He will be around a long time IMO. He is the reason Illinois won 37 games.
