20-25% is the right area, the reason home verses away is important is home favorites win by just 1 run more then away favorites, because in the bottom of the ninth if you go up by 1 run the game is over unlike away favorites. It is the reason 1.5 runlines are more expensive for away favorites.
winbet said:Sherman,
Please dont take this the wrong way, but trying to beat the Books with Stats is jumping on the slippery slope. The only way you will beat them is knowing more than they do, and stats isnt one of them. GL
winbet,
not taken the wrong way at all.....i'm learning on this site.....and i realize if there was an angle to beat the house it would have been thought up already....i'm just trying to find out for my own knowledge......
arty:Pancho,
Maybe I should elaborate on what I meant. There is no easy way of beating the Books, certainly not by bare Stats. However, the only way of beating the Books, is putting in plenty hours of study at a Sport and stats can be a great help but by no means the most important.
Hours of study will give you a feel for a game outside of stats, coupled with putting value on a price and Bingo. Saying all this, its not that easy and the extra dedication can be a negative Family wise, another problem to overcome for those willing to try to beat the game.:sad3:
Maybe I should elaborate on what I meant. There is no easy way of beating the Books, certainly not by bare Stats. However, the only way of beating the Books, is putting in plenty hours of study at a Sport and stats can be a great help but by no means the most important.
Hours of study will give you a feel for a game outside of stats, coupled with putting value on a price and Bingo. Saying all this, its not that easy and the extra dedication can be a negative Family wise, another problem to overcome for those willing to try to beat the game.:sad3:
winbet said:
winbet,
Nothing personal but I really think you're wrong.
BOOKS HAVE TO ADJUST LINES BASED ON MONEY COMING IN, NOT STATS.
I would agree with you that the books know more than we do, but they cannot simply rely on stats to set their lines - they have to adjust for the flow of money.
Suppose a huge public team like the Yankees has a 50-50 chance of winning. Even though they know this, they cannot keep the line at -105/-105 because it would get hit hard and they would expose themselves to one side. So they make the line -125/+115 to balance the action.
That is where YOU knowing that the Yankees have a 50-50 chance of winning becomes valuable. You don't know more than the books do, you might know as much as the books do (and maybe a tad less) but you do know more than the public does.
