We went through this before with Shaq...

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Apr 10, 2005

The other day we had a great thread determining the value of Shaq in the Bull game. I learned a lot. Shaq was worth 4 points. But when he was announced questionable, the line dropped from 9 to 7. This was what I call a tweener, or a wait and see what happens line. The books not knowing Shaq's status and brave enough to put up a line split his value. When announced he was a nogo, it dropped to real no Shaq number. Today again, he is a question mark. I think this line of 3 is another tweener. Shaq plays, it goes to 5, does not, drops to 1. At least that is my theory. I also learned from Noreaga it is better to post a winning middle after the game, than post a loser before. But that is another story. Someting to think about, especially when the announcement comes. OF :103631605

lander · Apr 10, 2005

Either way, I'm sure you'll tell us how you cashed in on the game ...

afterwards, naturally.

bucsfan67 · Apr 10, 2005

fwiw, i have a friend in South Florida, he told me he "heard" that Shaq will not be playing today.....they are giving him one more day to recuperate...

Im grabbing a little Detroit now, in case it drops.....

oldmanTED · Apr 10, 2005

Detroit already the fav. Took the World Champions at +3 figuring Shaq would not play in this game and if it was announced, the line would move quickly as it has. No inside presence for the Heat in this game should spell trouble for motivated Pistons. Best of luck everyone.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Apr 10, 2005

Well, it dropped from +3 to -1 1/2. Since pick is a filler, and the 1 is the consensus, I would believe that line reflected Shaq playing, not a tweener. I would think +1 1/2, to + 3 1/2 would be a decent opportunity. OF :103631605

Nope, no action for me this one. I do not like betting if a player is going to play, or trust Don Best to tell me straight...OF :103631605

Anyone see what happened in the 76er game yesterday? They announce AI is out, Line rockets on falling Wizards, and total drops 3 points. Oops, they played better without him. Not saying Miami will play better without Shaq, but those late injury moves can be brutally bad.

TheGeneral+ · Apr 10, 2005

From my experiences, the injury to a key player just gives another player the chance to step up and I do not put much thought into these injuries. If you are a middler, it is understandable to take the shot, but in the straight wagering aspect, I have seen as many teams cover w/out a key player as not cover.

oldmanTED · Apr 10, 2005

Whole different scenario then Phil/Wash. Liked the line with or without Shaq. As Pistons playing more soundly and match-up better. Without Shaq, just more gravy. Who matches up inside with Wallace, Wallace and Prince. Doleac, Haslem and Jones? Duly respect Wade but this team was down 30 against Memphis the other night without Shaq. Pistons with Billups at the point and Hamilton in the 2 position and coming in with Hunter and McDyess and Arroyo too deep for wounded Heat. Pistons smell blood and want this game more then the Heat.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Apr 10, 2005

Road game vs. home game. Have not seen Heat rollover at home very often. Also, Heat were laying 9 1/2 to Bulls, then Shaq out, drops to 4 1/2, 5. With Shaq out, Bulls still get crushed by original line, even worse. You do have better matchups now, But I would prefer Heat +2 right now.
GL Ted...OF:toast:

aceduecetrey · Apr 10, 2005

The General said:
From my experiences, the injury to a key player just gives another player the chance to step up and I do not put much thought into these injuries. If you are a middler, it is understandable to take the shot, but in the straight wagering aspect, I have seen as many teams cover w/out a key player as not cover.

General- In Baskets and Football, this is one of my favorite things to look for. I play on the team with the injured player in their first game and against them in the second.

Rainbow · Apr 10, 2005

oldmanTED said:
Whole different scenario then Phil/Wash. Liked the line with or without Shaq. As Pistons playing more soundly and match-up better. Without Shaq, just more gravy. Who matches up inside with Wallace, Wallace and Prince. Doleac, Haslem and Jones? Duly respect Wade but this team was down 30 against Memphis the other night without Shaq. Pistons with Billups at the point and Hamilton in the 2 position and coming in with Hunter and McDyess and Arroyo too deep for wounded Heat. Pistons smell blood and want this game more then the Heat.

You were dead on the money on this game.