NEAT Parlay IDEA (I believe)!! I need your help!!!

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Rx Post Doc
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Let us say I played these plays:

1.) Oakland A's Runline: -1.5 @ +1.50 $500.00 for $750.00

2.) Parlay
Toronto Blue Jays +1.27
Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 9 $150.00 for $500.00

3.) Parlay
Toronto Blue Jays +1.27
Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9 $150.00 for $500.00


Possible Outcomes.....Oakland Loses (total = 9): -500
..............................Oakland wins by one (total =9): -500
..............................Oakland wins by 2 or more (total =9): +750

..............................Oakland Loses: -150
..............................Oakland wins by one: -800
..............................Oakland wins by 2 or more: +450

For some reason this looks like a GREAT idea to me. For the MOST PART, I am playing $150 to win $450. I realize that there is the nasty possibility that Oakland wins by one (jinx jinx turn around turn around jump three times.) Otherwise, it looks like an easy way to leverage things in my favor. Am I missing something?

WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THIS COMBINATION OF PLAYS??????
It doesn't matter what game is being played, as long as the lines are similar for teams and O/U's...so let us not get into the aspects of tonight's matchups. tulsa
 

Rx Senior
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Tulsa, this a a great idea and I love your creativness with this.
However, a lot of games end with the winner by 1 run. You have a lot of risk in this situation. One more thing, having the hometeam as the team to hopefully not win by one is twice as risky because the bat last and 1 run the game is over. If it was the visiting team a rally could mean a 2-3 run lead. When it all comes down to it you are risking $800 to win $450 that the Oakland will not win by 1. Which I dont think is a horrible bet.

One more question - What are the ending results if Oakland wins 5-4 and what is the ending results if toronto wins and the total lands on 9?
 
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"I like ketchup. It's like tomato wine."
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But you understand you're risking $800 to win $450?
 

Rx Post Doc
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Fat Tony said:
But you understand you're risking $800 to win $450?

Not exactly, Fat Tony. That is the key. All of the possible outcomes were listed. I could only lose $800 if Oakland wins by one. tulsa
 
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Rx Post Doc
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Kruser6

KRUSER6 WROTE >>a lot of games end with the winner by 1 run. You have a lot of risk in this situation. One more thing, having the hometeam as the team to hopefully not win by one is twice as risky because the bat last and 1 run the game is over. If it was the home team a rally could mean a 2-3 run lead. When it all comes down to it you are risking $800 to win $450 that the Oakland will not win by 1.

One more question - What are the ending results if Oakland wins 5-4 and what is the ending results if toronto wins and the total lands on 9?<<


First, let me respond to your beginning point. Yes, many end with one run wins, but that means that many of those would be Toronto winning by one and not Oakland.

I do agree with your second point about the hometeam not batting in the ninth.

If Oakland wins 5-4 then I lose $500 as mentioned in my first post, as the parlay disappears and the RL play is the only play active. If toronto wins and the total lands on 9 then the RL play is the only play active and I lose $500. IF Oakland wins by two and the total lands on 9 (can't happen at this stage of tonight's game) so if Oakland wins 7-2, then the parlay is null and I win $750. All possibilities were mentioned in the initial post. Thanks for your thoughts and any suggestions you might have!!! tulsa<!-- / message -->
 

"I like ketchup. It's like tomato wine."
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Tulsa said:
Not exactly, Fat Tony. That is the key. All of the possible outcomes were listed. I could only lose $800 if Oakland wins by one. tulsa



I know it doesn't seem like it's going to happen, but it could. You're still risking $800 to win $450!! :) No way around it.

If you're that confident that a particular game won't land on one run, just flat bet the run line every time and forget the parlays. You're better off over time.
 

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The reason that I say I'm not exactly risking $800 for $450 can be answered by the following analogy: If I offered you the chance to open 100 doors that all but one had $500 within and it costs you $200 to play, would you do it? 99 doors have $500 and one has nothing and it costs you $200 to participate. MOST all of us would take that opportunity. However, you can't look at it as $200 to win nothing. I'm not saying that my parlay idea is as good (having the great positive payout expectations) as the analogy that I just gave, but the reasoning is similar. It comes down to expected values (there's that term again from another thread yesterday) and I guess I'll just have to do some math to work this one out. The problem is...I don't know the odds that only Oakland will win by one run!!! I must know some of those inherent odds to figure out the expected monetary values that I would receive!!! Anyway, Thanks Fat Tony and anyone else that wants to offer anything. Good Luck! tulsa
 

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Track it on paper bets for a few weeks, I think it's a loser long-term, better yet a guy with a database could run it for last season or more and give good long-term expectation. Maybe someone will do it for you.
 

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