That is a toughie. You could get juiced one month, and just hope the scalps pay for it. But when the middles hit, you can earn quite a bit. Factor in reduced juice and you need to hit 1 in 30 to break even. But Rainbow knows middlers that went broke so I guess it can happen. I pretty much do it all, bet, hedge, scalp, middle, Bonus Play, bonuses, whatever pays. If I spent the time breaking down in percentages what paid what, it would be counterproductive. That time could be spent getting more positions.
As far as lead ins, that is more speculation, then middling or scalping. If I take a lead, or bang an opener, I like the side. If you start speculating you lose the can't lose argument. Potential for scalping yourself or suffering an Eastern European middle. It is actually quite complex, but if you stick with it, parameters and disclipline, it should be the largest part of your earn. If you are new and not a ghost I would not advocate trying, middling, scalping and betting. I would sign up with a couple of reduced juice shops, get some bonuses and sign up for a line service. Take small same time middles and scalps. Better to start conservative, and build from there. As far as your original question, it will vary, per individual. How big of middle shots? And how long term, individuals months would have wild fluctuations.
Best Wishes...OF:digit:
As far as lead ins, that is more speculation, then middling or scalping. If I take a lead, or bang an opener, I like the side. If you start speculating you lose the can't lose argument. Potential for scalping yourself or suffering an Eastern European middle. It is actually quite complex, but if you stick with it, parameters and disclipline, it should be the largest part of your earn. If you are new and not a ghost I would not advocate trying, middling, scalping and betting. I would sign up with a couple of reduced juice shops, get some bonuses and sign up for a line service. Take small same time middles and scalps. Better to start conservative, and build from there. As far as your original question, it will vary, per individual. How big of middle shots? And how long term, individuals months would have wild fluctuations.
Best Wishes...OF:digit:
TRUE STORY AND GUESS WHO EARNED MORE MONEY???
A friend of mine is a seasoned scalper and middler. He makes 6 figures a year doing this...
Both he and I were fortunate enough to "KNOW" ahead of time which way a game was moving about 90% of the time...
So whenever a hoops game for example opened at 2, then closed at 3 1/2, he would bet both sides of the game with a slightly larger wager on the RIGHT SIDE and I would just hold my original position on the RIGHT SIDE...
At the end of 2 years of doing this, one of us made a lot more money than the other...
Can you guess WHO and WHY?
THE SHRINK
A friend of mine is a seasoned scalper and middler. He makes 6 figures a year doing this...
Both he and I were fortunate enough to "KNOW" ahead of time which way a game was moving about 90% of the time...
So whenever a hoops game for example opened at 2, then closed at 3 1/2, he would bet both sides of the game with a slightly larger wager on the RIGHT SIDE and I would just hold my original position on the RIGHT SIDE...
At the end of 2 years of doing this, one of us made a lot more money than the other...
Can you guess WHO and WHY?
THE SHRINK
THE SHRINK said:
Shrink,
I would like to offer a guess. I would say your friend made more money doing it his way. My reason is he got middles and hit two wagers to your one. By taking the late # he was getting value in going against the line move. Im sure you didnt do too bad yourself if you're correctly predicting line moves at a 90% clip, thats outstanding.
If bets were equal, then I would say the person who evened up positions, unless the right side hit more than 52.4%. I know a guy who did the opposite, bet the high end of the wrong line. After the move he thought he was getting value with the extra points. He did not profit. So my final answer is, the guy who kept more on the right side did better, because the buys were hitting better than 52.4%. The buybacks were irrelevant.
Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
thanx for the input, OF...no, i'm not a ghost, just trying to learn more..i don't think i can afford paying for a line service, as the only one worth anything is don best and it's $500/month...my bankroll doesn't justify that monthly payment...i do ok betting on my own in baseball, but trying to see how much i need to make sitting in front of a computer all day a worthwhile proposition...OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
THE SHRINK said:
holy crap!!! 6 figures?..dam shrink, you got some rich friends..
when you speculate on a line movement, how much does public perception do you take into account?..i think i can tell what the public is going to take most of the time, but i just can't tell when the sharps' actions negate the squares' actions....
total square,
It's really hard to speculate and guess right 90% of the time unless you are a mover. However, a big hint that will increase your advantage would be to open an account with a respectable book who takes large bets, that is not on the DON BEST screen (like Delmar for example)...
If you see a line that is OFF with Delmar, you can be pretty sure it is the RIGHT side because the sports book I named is considered a WISE GUY shop...
Then, if you want relatively little risk, go ahead and take a position and you should be able to grind out a profit by middling the game back later on...
This is not perfect by any means and just a rough guideline...
My 2 cents...
P.S.
I am not a middler by nature, so there are lots of more experienced posters who may share some of their pearls of the trade with you on here. But remember, many won't because you'd be embarking on their needs...
Best of Luck,
THER SHRINK
It's really hard to speculate and guess right 90% of the time unless you are a mover. However, a big hint that will increase your advantage would be to open an account with a respectable book who takes large bets, that is not on the DON BEST screen (like Delmar for example)...
If you see a line that is OFF with Delmar, you can be pretty sure it is the RIGHT side because the sports book I named is considered a WISE GUY shop...
Then, if you want relatively little risk, go ahead and take a position and you should be able to grind out a profit by middling the game back later on...
This is not perfect by any means and just a rough guideline...
My 2 cents...
P.S.
I am not a middler by nature, so there are lots of more experienced posters who may share some of their pearls of the trade with you on here. But remember, many won't because you'd be embarking on their needs...
Best of Luck,
THER SHRINK
If you're going to speculate, you have to have some sort of system and an efficient method of tracking that system to determine the direction (and magnitude) of line movement. Like Frog said, it sucks when you end up scalping yourself.
Let me give you an example:
Team A (3-0 ATS) vs. Team B (0-3 ATS)
It opens at +1.5. You think it will reach 3 because the public will go against Team B, so you buy a small position on Team A.
Suppose now that the books are a step ahead of you. They realize that the public will be against a 0-3 team so they open the line at +4.5. I think it will reach 7, because the public will go against Team B so I take a position on Team A laying the 4.5. You see the over compensation, so you take Team B thinking it will drop to +3. The two of us help balance the books' action so the line doesn't move at all until 12:30 pm on Sunday. (I almost got screwed on this line when Philly played Atlanta in the playoffs and the line opened at 4 to 4.5 and went up when I thought it would go down)
BUT where you have a huge disadvantage over the books is that they know how many people lost their shirts taking Team B the last three weeks - and probably swear they won't take them again or will go against them this week. You don't have that information.
If you knew how large the handle on the past week's game was, and how unbalanced the action was, you would definitely have a feel for how a line would move. Tracking past line movement (as a 1xn array with no other variables) is the only tool you have, and tracking line movement in a database is EXTREMELY tough - especially if you're going to use it in a model to predict furture trends.
Also, in the NFL, you have the key numbers (3, 4 and 7) to work with for a benchmark. There is no real NUMBER in basketball, though some will say it is 2, 3 and 7. The problem with the basketball numbers is that even though 7 is a real benchmark number, the public doesn't realize it. So it doesn't help you make a PREDICTION for line movement. The public won't balk at a -7.5 (as opposed to a 7) in the NBA like they would in the NFL.
A -3.5 in the NFL will RARELY hit -2.5 but in the NBA, it will. That is why middling the NBA is easier than the NFL. You can side the NFL, but you can almost never middle it at 3 and 7 unless you are willing to spend more than 25 (and most times 30) cents.
If you're really going to middle, I say you look at the overnight lines and try to predict line movement for a while. Guess the direction of movement and guess how many points it will move. If you see yourself being able to do that, you might be able to start putting real money into it.
Let me give you an example:
Team A (3-0 ATS) vs. Team B (0-3 ATS)
It opens at +1.5. You think it will reach 3 because the public will go against Team B, so you buy a small position on Team A.
Suppose now that the books are a step ahead of you. They realize that the public will be against a 0-3 team so they open the line at +4.5. I think it will reach 7, because the public will go against Team B so I take a position on Team A laying the 4.5. You see the over compensation, so you take Team B thinking it will drop to +3. The two of us help balance the books' action so the line doesn't move at all until 12:30 pm on Sunday. (I almost got screwed on this line when Philly played Atlanta in the playoffs and the line opened at 4 to 4.5 and went up when I thought it would go down)
BUT where you have a huge disadvantage over the books is that they know how many people lost their shirts taking Team B the last three weeks - and probably swear they won't take them again or will go against them this week. You don't have that information.
If you knew how large the handle on the past week's game was, and how unbalanced the action was, you would definitely have a feel for how a line would move. Tracking past line movement (as a 1xn array with no other variables) is the only tool you have, and tracking line movement in a database is EXTREMELY tough - especially if you're going to use it in a model to predict furture trends.
Also, in the NFL, you have the key numbers (3, 4 and 7) to work with for a benchmark. There is no real NUMBER in basketball, though some will say it is 2, 3 and 7. The problem with the basketball numbers is that even though 7 is a real benchmark number, the public doesn't realize it. So it doesn't help you make a PREDICTION for line movement. The public won't balk at a -7.5 (as opposed to a 7) in the NBA like they would in the NFL.
A -3.5 in the NFL will RARELY hit -2.5 but in the NBA, it will. That is why middling the NBA is easier than the NFL. You can side the NFL, but you can almost never middle it at 3 and 7 unless you are willing to spend more than 25 (and most times 30) cents.
If you're really going to middle, I say you look at the overnight lines and try to predict line movement for a while. Guess the direction of movement and guess how many points it will move. If you see yourself being able to do that, you might be able to start putting real money into it.
Oh, the irony of it all...
Although I stated earlier I am not normally a middler, I did have Phoenix at minus 13, and I figured I overbet it so when the 15's came out at a couple of places I had the PERFECT MIDDLE NUMBER of 14 TONIGHT...
I am in shock that the number hit...:shocked:
14?????!!!!
But VERY HAPPY and EXCITED...
In fact, the General can attest for the fact that this is true because I invited him in my earlier bet on Phoenix minus 13 today...
YAY..............
arty:
Now you middlers have me thinking because this time of year, I usually take off because I don't see myself picking higher than 52.4% in the NBA...
But I'd gladly grind out a small profit by middling when I have the time to do so...
This is such a great hobby/business...
THE SHRINK
Although I stated earlier I am not normally a middler, I did have Phoenix at minus 13, and I figured I overbet it so when the 15's came out at a couple of places I had the PERFECT MIDDLE NUMBER of 14 TONIGHT...
I am in shock that the number hit...:shocked:
14?????!!!!
But VERY HAPPY and EXCITED...
In fact, the General can attest for the fact that this is true because I invited him in my earlier bet on Phoenix minus 13 today...
YAY..............
arty: Now you middlers have me thinking because this time of year, I usually take off because I don't see myself picking higher than 52.4% in the NBA...
But I'd gladly grind out a small profit by middling when I have the time to do so...
This is such a great hobby/business...
THE SHRINK
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