This is an article I wrote for a gambling publication about four or five years ago and while some of the names have changed the basic theory has not.
I'm posting it because I see so many people willing to lay lumber in this sport and frankly, it just does not make sense to me. So, if I can change just one person's philosophy, or at the very least, give the chalk bettors something to think about, it's certainly worth reading.
PITCHING ISN'T EVERYTHING
The beautiful thing about wagering on baseball is that, for the most part, the betting line is based on the starting pitchers. As long as the sportsbooks keep posting numbers based on the starting pitchers, I will continue to benefit from this and will show you how you can too, financially.
It's a well-known fact that the Atlanta Braves have had the most dominant pitching staff over the past 10 years. But how many World Series rings do they own? One. The New York Yankees, who it appears just may win the AL championship for the next 10 years, have been the most dominant team in baseball and possess a pitching staff that has ranked only sixth in the American league during the past four seasons. How about the Cleveland Indians? Their pitching staff over the past four seasons has ranked 15th overall, yet they continue to win more games than anyone in baseball, aside from the Yanks. Jose Rosado of the Kansas City Royals has boasted an ERA of 2.13 over the past four seasons (last season he was injured) in April. His record over that time span was two wins, eight losses.
(NOTE: Remember this was published about four or five years ago).
My point is that although pitching is definitely a deciding factor in the outcome of games, it is foolish to wager on a team based solely on who is starting on a particular day. Wagering on baseball provides us with the best wagering propositions day in and day out.
Craps, roulette, video poker, slots, keno, blackjack, etc., should be regarded as strictly entertainment. The reason, of course, is that the odds in those games are always tilted against the player, whether it's very slightly or not so slightly at all. The house enjoys an advantage in those games on virtually every bet, so players are ultimately bound to lose. Mathematical laws of the universe simply cannot be violated over an extended period of time. When wagering on baseball you have the option to tilt the odds in your favor. You have the option to lay juice or take back a price. In other words, instead of laying down $150 to win $100, you can wager $100 to profit $140. The secret is not complicated. When betting on baseball never play a favourite under any circumstance regardless of who is pitching. If you play favorites in baseball, I guarantee you will lose.
With a schedule of 162 games for every team and almost 2,500 baseball games in a season, surely it makes sense to sniff out the dogs on a daily basis. It doesn't take a lot of time, nor a lot of research to handicap these games. There are so many mediocre pitchers going up against one another every single day in the baseball season and when you throw in other intangibles such as winning and losing streaks, injuries, batting slumps, etc, playing the pooches even makes more sense.
Why put yourself in a position that is extremely difficult to overcome by playing favorites? They just don't win enough. Every baseball team this season will win 60 games and lose 60 games. There are very few exceptions to this rule. That being the case, it is so blatantly obvious that underdogs win consistently.
Let's look into this a little bit closer. Suppose you play an average of three games a day for the entire baseball season. There are roughly 180 days in a season. Multiply that by three and you have a total of 540 games you would be wagering on. Now suppose you always played favorites and laid an average of 1.40 per game and wagered $100.00 on every game. Let's give you the benefit of the doubt and award you 58 percent winners (highly unlikely) considering that the best teams in baseball will play around that same 58 percent clip. Your record would be 313 wins and 227 losses. Looks pretty good on paper, but would you be happy with that?
Simple math will tell you that you would profit $31,300. (313 x 100) and you would lose $31,700. (227 x 1.40), for a net loss of $400. Incredible!! You win 58 percent of your games and still end up losing for the year. In fact, it is well known among linesmakers that underdogs win as many games a year as do favorites. If you happen to win the exact same percentage of dogs with an average takeback of 1.30 per game and wagered the exact same amount, your net profit for the year would be $18,000. Read that again, it's not a typographical error, it is a fact. 313 x 1.30 x 100. = $40,690. minus your losses of 227 x 100 = $22,700. If these facts are not convincing enough then I don't know what would be. Simply put: If you want to win, play underdogs only. There is no other way. Those of you who have been laying 1.50 or better on games, it is time to turn that around. The best pitchers in baseball will win 15 games out of roughly 35-40 starts. The bullpen will decide the outcome of the other 20-25 starts. How do you feel when you make a bet on a great pitcher laying 1.70, only to see his teammates come up lame and the game tied going to the late innings. It's not a good feeling. If you're on the other side of that fence, you will immediately reap the benefits. I guarantee it. Good luck to everyone and remember to take your kids to at least two ball games this year. They'll love you for it, and you'll love it too. Play the underdogs and the hot-dogs are on the books.
Incidentally, I've been playing dogs only for the past 12 years and have yet to have a losing season over that span.
