MLB Plays

Three plays I really like tonight. Lines hollywood

Chicago White Sox +103 over Cleveland. 100 to win 103

Contreras/Lee matchup same as last week. In that game, Contreras was very sharp, while Lee got ran out in the forth. Cleveland's offense has been horrible (team avg. 216), while the Sox have gotten some good pitching. For his career, Lee has an e.r.a. against the Sox of over seven. I'll take the better pitcher against a struggling offense. Now as long as Takatsu doesn't give up three bombs in the ninth we should be O.K.


Minnesota Twins -123 over Detroit. 246 to win 200
Although these aren't your older brother's Tigers. I'll ride the Twins at home here. The Twins have won seven in a row against the Tigers, and Lohse is 5-1 in his career against them. The Tigers had their lauded bullpen give up the lead last night, so the Twins have momentum on their side, plus they should be p***sed about some comments Dmitri Young made about the AL Central. This is a good value at -123.

Dodgers/Giants under 8 -115 . 115 to win 100

After a wild game yesterday that had 17 runs scored, I look for this one to stay under the fairly low total of 8. Odalis Perez is the real deal, and Brett Tomko has actually hurled fairly well against the Dodgers. Following past history between these two teams, I see a 3-2 game here.

Good Luck

Thursday April 14

YTD 3-0 +403

Two games I like today... Lines hollywood

Boston +137 over Yankees 100 to win 137

I know big unit is pitching, but any time I can get the defending champs at Fenway in a rivalry game catching this number, (with their explosive right handed lineup).... I'm going to take a chance on the Bosox here.

Houston/NY Mets under 8.5 -115 115 to win 100

A few under indicators I like here. Two teams who haven't seen much of the opposing pitcher (something like 50 total at bats against the starters for both teams) playing in a early season night game in a cool, blustery clim (should be in the 40s at game time) in a pitchers park. Did I mention that Mets starter Zambrano is nasty against right handed hitters? Check the Houston lineup.. basically all righties. Oh yeah, these two teams took 11 innings to score one run tonight. As long as there aren't too many walks and the bullpens don't melt down, this one should be easy.

Good luck

Friday April 15 play

Yesterday 2-0 +237
YTD 5-0 +640

Only one game I like on Friday's card. Line hollywood

Philadelphia/Atlanta Under 9 -105 105 to win 100

While the Phillies ballpark is somewhat of a hitters park, this one fits the same scenario as the Mets game last night. It will be cold at gametime, and the hitters haven't seen much of the opposing pitchers. Phillies pitcher/phenom Floyd lived up to the hype last time against the Cards. Further, both of these offenses have been struggling as of late. Outside of the Jonses, Braves hitters have managed 2 home runs in nearly 250 at bats. On the other side, the Phillies are coming off a series in which they scored 6 runs. As long as Braves pitcher Ramirez (a "plus" lefty arm facing a team whose big boppers Thome, Abreu are lefties) can find the plate with some regularity this one should come in.

Good luck

Saturday April 16

Yesterday 0-1 -105
YTD 5-1 +535

Two games I like for Saturday. Lines hollywood

Houston +106 over Cinc. Reds 100 to win 106

Seems to me like the wrong team is favored here. Two teams going in opposite directions. Maybe the 'stros offense finally has gotten off the schnide, scoring 11 runs on Friday. It won't hurt going against Reds pitcher Milton, who has been very hittable this season (his WHIP is nearly 2). The astros righty dominated lineup should put some runs on the board. Meanwhile, it looks like Astros pitcher Pettitte is progressing nicely in his recovery from elbow surgery. He has also been throwing strikes only walking 2 in 11+ innings on the season. All told the Astros appear to be a live dog here.

Oakland/LA Angels under 9 +100 100 to win 100

With the implosion of Barry Zito, A's pitcher Harden will need to step up as the ace of the staff. The fireballer appeared to have overcome blister problems which delayed his first start by shutting down Tampa in his first start of the year. Harden may need to shut the Angels down to get the win in this spot, because the A's have been scoring only about 3.5 runs a game. While Angels pitcher Washburn is nothing to get excited about, he should be able to do a decent job of keeping the A's offense in check. As long as Harden isn't on too short of a leash (pitch count) this should be a safe bet.


Good luck

Hey, you lost one! What has your record been in the past, if you don't mind? Thanx.

Sunday April 16th

Yesterday 1-1 0
YTD 6-2 $535

Regarding my past record, I don't have any specific numbers, but I've done pretty well the past two summers. Baseball is definitely my favorite sport, both to watch and to cap. I believe good research/handicapping goes further in baseball than any other sport. The dimeline doesn't hurt either. Anyway, as you can see from my bets I'm a small timer. I rarely bet more than 300 on a game, and usually I bet 100. I usually play 1-3 games a day, and I bet them on the overnight lines. I have enjoyed and appreciated reading others input on these boards, and I've decided to 'chime in', so to speak.

Anyway, on to the Sunday plays. Lines hollywood

New York Mets +107 over Florida 100 to win 107
On paper, this game looks like a mismatch. Burnett is a stud, and Glavine isn't getting any younger. However, teams sometimes go on streaks that defy the 'on paper' statistics. On Saturday, the Met's were stymied by vet Al Leiter until the Marlins bullpen gave away the game twice. Although the Marlins have a stocked lineup, they've been rather consistent, scoring only 9 runs in their six losses. Age aside, Glavine hasn't forgotten how to pitch, and I expect him to turn in a strong performance here. I'm going to ride the hot team at home.

Kansas City +114 over Detroit 100 to win 114

Pitchers Maroth and Runelvys Hernandez matched up about a week ago, and while Hernandez was shutting down the Tigers, Maroth was in the showers in the fourth inning. Maroth depends on pitch location and keeping the hitters off balance by changing speeds, however, he hasn't been fooling anyone this year. In his two starts, batters are hitting .400 off him. On the other side, Hernandez, who missed nearly two years with elbow problems is one of the feel good stories of the year, pitching very well his first two starts. The Royals look to be a live dog here.

Toronto/Texas Under 11 -115 115 to win 100

In my opinion, this total is set too high. Toronto pitcher Towers has been excellent in his two starts this season, striking out nearly a batter an inning with a whip under 1 . On the other hand, Texas pitcher Young struggled with his control and was rocked twice by the Angels. In those games, the 6'10 Young looked more like Randy Bruer on the mound than Randy Johnson. That said, Young has pretty good stuff, and he has never started against the Jays before. I think that in these situations the pitcher has the advantage. I'll take the under here banking that Towers continues his hot start, and stifles the Rangers. As long as there aren't multiple crooked numbers on the scoreboard this should cash.

Good luck

Love the KC play.

They have have Maroth's number.

Monday April 18th

Yesterday 0-2-1 -200
YTD 6-4-1 +335

Two plays I like today, a side and total on the same game. Lines hollywood

Kansas City -110 over Cleveland 110 to win 100

Royals pitcher Zack Greinke is a stud. That said, the Royals have lost both his starts despite the fact that he didn't give up a run in either outing. In his first start of the season, Greinke left the game after taking a line drive in the forearm. However in has last start, Greinke showed no ill effects, limiting the Mariners to 4 hits in six innings. The Indians have continued to struggle on offense, scoring only 8 runs in a three game weekend series against the Twins. The Tribe's team batting average sits at .217. I feel that Greinke shuts them down in this spot. That said, the Royals aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut either, which brings me to my next pick.

Kansas City/Cleveland under 9 runs -105 105 to win 100

I am making this pick partially on the strength of Greinke vs. the anemic Tribe offense, but also on the fact that I think the only way that the Royals lose this game is if they fail to score 3 runs. Considering that the Royals only score 3.5 a game, that is not outside the realgm of possibility. While I consider Indian's P Lee to be below average, he has posted solid career stats against the Royals (unbeaten with an era below 3). Don't see many runs scored in this one.

Good luck

Tuesday April 19

Yesterday 1-1 -10
YTD 7-5 +325

Two dogs for Tuesday that I think have good value. Lines hollywood

Oakland +112 over Texas 100 to win 112

Oakland is on a little roll lately winning their last three. They've also gotten the offense going, scoring 15 in their last two. The big question here is, can Pedro Astacio hurl a third straight quality start? I'm betting no. Oakland pitcher Blanton has a track record of throwing strikes. Throughout his professional career he's only walked about 2 guys per nine innings. Throwing strikes is half the battle, and I'll take the chalk here as I think this is a good spot for the A's.

Seattle +110 over LA Angels 100 to win 110

Angels pitcher Kevin Gregg makes another spot start in this one. Normally a reliever, Gregg has had some control problems in the past. Look for the Angels to go to their bullpen early in this one, and we know how well the bullpens have been doing this year. On the other side of the field, the M's, while sitting at .500, have been scoring over 5 runs per game with their revamped lineup. I've stopped trying to figure out Mariner's starter Jamie Moyer, he just keeps getting people out, and I think he'll go to 3-0 tomorrow.

Good luck