Kentucky Derby Update

Search

Hard work never killed anyone, but why chance it?
Joined
Jan 21, 2004
Messages
939
Tokens
Bellamy Road is the solid choice in Derby future pool 3 off smashing the Wood Field by 17 1/2 lengths, posting a monster Beyer of 120, equaling the Aqueduct track record set by Riva Ridge thirty two years ago. Over the past 25 years, only three favorites have won the Derby. Notable failures include Chief's Crown, Snow Chief, Demons Begone, Easy Goer, Hansel, Arazi, and Holy Bull.

Top 20 Three Year Old Graded Stakes Earnings & Derby Future Pool 3 Odds.

1--Blues and Royals $1,200,000 (15-1)
2--Wilko $1,004,515 (20-1)
3--High Fly $796,500 (13-1)
4--Afleet Alex $645,000 (16-1)
5--Consolidator $609,750 (12-1)
6--Bellamy Road $570,000 (3-1)
7--Buzzards Bay $480,000 (15-1 (F)
8--Sun King $365,000 (10-1)
9--Greater Good $361,344 (28-1)
10--High Limit $360,000 (13-1)
11--Flower Alley $300,000 (34-1)
12--Greeley's Galaxy* $300,000 (31-1)
13--Survivalist $240,000 (50-1)
14--Rockport Harbor $235,700 (18-1)
15--Noble Causeway $190,000 (18-1)
16--Giacomo $184,300 (50-1)
17--Storm Surge $182,640 (15-1 (F)
18--Vicarage $162,500 (15-1 (F)
19--General John B $150,000 (15-1 (F)
20--Wild Desert $131,320 (37-1)
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
22,529
Tokens
is this the fastest Derby prep Beyer in history??


thanks....


what is the next best Beyer a young 3 year old has had in his next race after posting a 120+ Beyer??
 

Active member
Joined
Jun 20, 2000
Messages
71,780
Tokens
who are the main contenders this year??? I have not heard much hype?
 

New member
Joined
Jul 20, 2002
Messages
75,154
Tokens
Bellamy Road

After sending out Bellamy Road to put on perhaps the most-brilliant performance in the 81-year history of the Wood Memorial, trainer Nick Zito will try for an encore with the upstaged Sun King in Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

In winning the 1 1/8-mile race by 17 1/2 lengths, Bellamy Road was clocked in 1:47.16, shattering the stakes record set by Private Terms in 1988 and equaling the Aqueduct track record set by Riva Ridge in 1973, the year after he decisively won the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes.

This latest Secretariat impersonation sent the hitherto unranked Bellamy Road soaring to the top of the Tribune newspapers' weekly Triple Crown ratings, displacing Sun King, who dropped to No. 2.

Bellamy Road, who is owned by George Steinbrenner's Kinsman Stable, is scheduled to leave New York for Kentucky tomorrow, joining Sun King and the 1-2 Florida Derby finishers, High Fly and Noble Causeway, in Zito's barn at Keeneland.

"We went over him with a fine-toothed comb and he came out great," Zito said yesterday. "Both of his races for me have been unbelievable."

After winning two of his three races for trainer Michael Dickinson last year, Bellamy Road was a 15 3/4-length winner when he made his debut for Zito in a mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park on March 12.

Sun King won just one of four races last year, but the son of 1999 Derby and Preakness winner Charismatic has been a compelling winner of both of his starts this year. Last time out, he led throughout in taking the Tampa Bay Derby by 3 1/4 lengths.

The Blue Grass promises to be the most difficult of the preps for the May 7 Kentucky Derby. Among the horses who will face Sun King are: High Limit, the Louisiana Derby winner trained by Bobby Frankel; Consolidator, the San Felipe winner trained by D. Wayne Lukas; Closing Argument, who forced High Fly to settle for third in the Holy Bull; and Fountain of Youth runner-up Bandini, a son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus.

The probable field for Saturday's Arkansas Derby suffers by comparison. The most accomplished candidates are Rebel Stakes winner Greater Good and Flower Alley, winner of the Lane's End at Turfway Park.

Zito is considering sending Sam Davis winner Andromeda's Hero to the Arkansas Derby, giving him an opportunity to make amends for a fifth-place finish on an off track in the Lane's End. Another option is keeping him at Keeneland for the final Derby prep, the Coolmore Lexington on April 23.

Trainer John Servis of Smarty Jones fame and fortune has abandoned his original objective of making Rockport Harbor his second consecutive Arkansas Derby winner. After working the oft-injured colt 7 furlongs in 1:25 3/5 yesterday at Oaklawn Park, Servis said he would run him in the 1 1/16-mile Lexington instead.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Sweet Catomine has dropped off the list of Derby candidates. Her fifth-place finish as the even-money favorite in the Santa Anita Derby ended her winning streak at five. After the race, co-owner Martin Wygod told Bill Christine of the Los Angeles Times that she bled internally during a workout April 3 and was found to be in season (ovulating) for the first time the following day.

Another confirmed no-show at Churchill Downs on May 7 is Don't Get Mad, a lackluster sixth in the Santa Anita Derby. Moving into the breach for owner B. Wayne Hughes is Greeley's Galaxy, who will be supplemented to the Derby for $200,000 in the wake of his 9 1/2-length victory in the Illinois Derby.

The Chicago Tribune is a Tribune Co. newspaper.

TRIPLE CROWN RATINGS

Horse Trainer St W/P/S Last race

1. Bellamy Road Nick Zito 5 4/0/0 Wood Memorial (1st)

2. Sun King Nick Zito 6 3/0/2 Tampa Bay Derby (1st)

3. High Fly Nick Zito 6 5/0/1 Florida Derby (1st)

4. Noble Causeway Nick Zito 6 3/3/0 Florida Derby (2nd)

5. Consolidator D. Wayne Lukas 9 3/1/1 San Felipe Stakes (1st)

6. Greater Good Bob Holthus 7 5/0/1 Rebel Stakes (1st)

7. High Limit Ramon Dominguez 3 3/0/0 Louisiana Derby (1st)

8. Bandini Todd Pletcher 4 2/1/0 Fountain of Youth (1st)

9. Rockport Harbor John Servis 5 4/1/0 Rebel Stakes (2nd)

10. Buzzards Bay Jeff Mullins 8 3/1/2 Santa Anita Derby (1st)

Triple Crown panel: Bill Christine, Los Angeles Times; Tom Keyser, Baltimore Sun; Dave Joseph, South Florida Sun-Sentinel; Neil Milbert, Chicago Tribune; Paul Moran, Newsday.

2005 Newsday Inc.
 

Hard work never killed anyone, but why chance it?
Joined
Jan 21, 2004
Messages
939
Tokens
Hey Guys. Hope all is well.

"A favorite finally emerges" by Andrew Beyer. (excerpts)

Bellamy Road's victory in the Wood was one of the most stunning and authoritative performances ever delivered in a prep race for the Kentucky Derby...He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 120 -- the best performance in a Derby prep race since these numbers began appearing in print in 1991. It was better than the winning figure in any Triple Crown race during this period.

Trainer Nick Zito, "I know this horse is part of history. I've been at Aqueduct watching the Wood Memorial since I was a kid, and to break the record in the Wood . . . that's one of the best performances at Aqueduct ever."... New York Yankees owner George Steinbrenner bought the colt for (only) $87,000 as a 2-year-old..

(Bellamy road) sports a 3-year-old record with two wins by a combined total of 33 1/4 lengths...Only one horse in the last 56 years has managed to win the Derby with the benefit of only two prep races as a 3-year-old.

Can he take pressure? Bellamy Road has scored his victories by leading all the way, but he probably won't have that advantage in a typical, speed-filled 20-horse Derby field. Under such circumstances, superior speed horses are often the victims of an insane early pace.

...no horse in years has gone into the 3-year-old classics with such an advantage in raw talent over the rest of his generation.


(full article > http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A47968-2005Apr12.html
 

t3a

RX Ninja
Joined
Dec 25, 2004
Messages
5,250
Tokens
NickyDeuces said:
He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 120 -- the best performance in a Derby prep race since these numbers began appearing in print in 1991. It was better than the winning figure in any Triple Crown race during this period.

For comparison, Smarty Jones best race last year was his 118 in the Preakness. He had not run faster than a 108 in all his victories up to then, and of course after the Preakness, he only ran one more time and then retired with an injury. The fastest prep I can remeber was War Emblem running a 112 and then coming back to win the Derby with a 114.

A 3 year old running this fast so early in the year, hard to say if 'bouncing' is the biggest concern - or the jinx of being a likely favorite
 

Active member
Joined
Jun 20, 2000
Messages
71,780
Tokens
thanks for that link Nicky....so Bellamy is a front runner??? will there be any speed in the race to wear him out for the closers?:smoker2:
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
22,529
Tokens
many early speed horses, one you will see High Limit in the Blue Grass, at least 5 early speed types targeted for this race. should be a great one!
 

Hard work never killed anyone, but why chance it?
Joined
Jan 21, 2004
Messages
939
Tokens
Book from a few years back, "From the Desert to the Derby" subtitled The Ruling Family of Dubai's Billion-Dollar Quest to Win America's Greatest Race.

Godolphin is back. They have it all except the Derby, and they want it bad. The Dubai track is modeled after Churchill Downs for just that purpose, especially the racing surface. Sheik Dudes send the field's leading earner, Blues and Royals, off handily winning the $2 million Grade 2 UAE Derby in Dubai. Not a factor but $2 million in Dubai translates to about twenty bucks in the hood. Still...don't see the Desert horse on the board.

Steinbrenner in the Derby Circle? Bellamy Road was basically a face in the crowd before Saturdays huge win. A one hit wonder ? Was purchased for only $87K ? Has raced in two Grade Ones, romped in one, faltered badly as the 2-1 choice in the other. Of course -- IF he does come close to his last effort, and IF he stays out of trouble, and IF he avoids an early suicide speed duel..."Road" would be a whole lot tough to beat.

(Belch, I agree. Bandini, son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, rates a long look. Tough to knock five for six High Fly, he's outrunning his breeding. Bol)
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
Joined
Mar 1, 2002
Messages
42,730
Tokens
washingtonpost.com

Had Bellamy Road run any faster in the Wood Memorial last Saturday he might have sprouted wings and flown like Pegasus straight out of Aqueduct. The colt's 17 1/2-length score left trailing jockeys in need of binoculars, not goggles, and should go down in history as one of the great Kentucky Derby prep races, especially if Bellamy Road can duplicate the performance in Louisville when it matters most.</NITF>

<NITF>Nobody following closely, however, would dare compare the horses that ate Bellamy Road's dirt in New York with the ones lining up for the Grade I $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes this afternoon at Keeneland. Horse for horse, the Blue Grass far and away assembles the most talented group of 3-year-olds this year.</NITF>

Sun King, trainer Nick Zito's first string -- ahead of Bellamy Road -- is only second choice in the morning line behind High Limit, the Louisiana Derby winner in the hands of Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel and undefeated in three starts. Also running are Consolidator, a blazing $1.25 million son of Storm Cat racing for D. Wayne Lukas; Bandini, second in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and the top 3-year-old in the powerful Todd Pletcher stable; Holy Bull Stakes winner Closing Argument; the talented Mr Sword; and San Rafael Stakes winner Spanish Chestnut.</NITF>

<NITF>While trainers with Blue Grass runners admit they admire what they saw in Bellamy Road, none was left quaking in his boots.</NITF>

<NITF>"Bellamy Road was great and we go on to the next week and the next step," said Patrick Biancone, who trains speedy Blue Grass long shot Spanish Chestnut. "You have to be impressed with Bellamy Road, but a month ago we were impressed by High Limit and we don't talk about him anymore. The week before that it was Spanish Chestnut."</NITF>

<NITF>Even with Bellamy Road's sensational run in the Wood, Sun King goes into the Blue Grass the leader of the impossibly deep Nick Zito stable.</NITF>

<NITF>Both horses could go down with injury and Zito would still have Florida Derby winner High Fly and runner-up Noble Causeway as well as another fringe Kentucky Derby contender in Arkansas Derby entrant Andromeda's Hero.</NITF>

<NITF>Asked if it was demanding trying to steer so many stars toward the Kentucky Derby, Zito said, "I don't think so at all. It's demanding on the other people."</NITF>

<NITF>Sun King proved his talent last fall, running a close third after leading briefly in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. This after finishing third in the Grade I Champagne Stakes by only 1 3/4 lengths. A little change of fortune and the son of 1999 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Charismatic might have been named juvenile champion.</NITF>

<NITF>"Well, he was extremely unlucky in the Breeders' Cup although he lost at less than a length," said Sun King's owner, Tracy Farmer, a Kentucky businessman who has campaigned many top horses but never one in the Derby. "If you watch the replay, you'll see that he hit the inside rail, which threw him off stride. He was unlucky in that aspect, but, again, the races that he's been in have been extremely competitive. We always need racing luck. We'd rather be lucky than smart in this business, as you know."</NITF>

<NITF>[font=Arial,Helvetica][size=-1]Avoiding the Bounce
[/size][/font]
In assessing the performance of Bellamy Road in the Wood, Frankel ventured to wonder whether the horse had, rather than stamp himself as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby, already fired his best shot.</NITF>

<NITF>"A negative about him is he might have run too fast in that race and sometimes the old 'bounce' comes in," Frankel said. "We've figured out that having your horses fresh and everything for these kinds of races, they run their best races. But the negative part about it is when you run them so fresh and they run so hard like [Bellamy Road] . . . they're subject to bouncing a lot easier than a horse that's been having steadier races and more races and a better foundation."</NITF>

<NITF>With his High Limit having had only three lifetime starts, Frankel said it is critical the horse run hard in the Blue Grass to get fit for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby.</NITF>

<NITF>"He's going to be 100 percent fit, my horse, for this race and, hopefully, he . . . can come back in three weeks," he said.</NITF>

<NITF>One trainer with a Derby prospect who doesn't have to worry about that is Robert Holthus, whose Greater Good is favored to win the Grade II $1 million Arkansas Derby today.</NITF>

<NITF>Greater Good has won three straight stakes races -- all around two turns -- by a combined 3 1/4 lengths, leaving virtually no margin for error.</NITF>

<NITF>Holthus loves the fact the horse does only enough to win.</NITF>

<NITF>"He has won four races going two turns, none of them by very much, but he usually doesn't make you sweat," Holthus said. "You know he's going to get there about the 16th pole, and he kind of does what he has to do, and, luckily, he does that because he doesn't draw off to win by no 10 or 15 lengths. That can take a lot out of you."</NITF>
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
22,529
Tokens
consolidator to show he gets the trip to pick up a piece. then improves Derby Day for the win! you dont want to peak too early (aka Bellamy road who has already raced his Derby 4 weeks early!)
 

Stumblin' around, drunk on burgundy wine.
Joined
Oct 11, 2004
Messages
4,439
Tokens
i'm going to take a shot with longshot Closing Argument. McLaughlin horses run well fresh, and he beat the Florida derby winner High Fly in his last race. Also like that he can rate of the pace, of which there should be plenty of.

Bandini needs the graded earnings to make it into the Derby so Pletcher should have him cranked.

Closing Argument over Bandini and Sun King. Box it up.
 

ODU GURU
Joined
Feb 26, 1999
Messages
20,881
Tokens
The General said:
Anyone have a strong opinion for the Blue Grass today?


Thanks

Well, since you asked, I will be betting on the <b>5 Horse, HIGH LIMIT...</b>

Anyone who has been been to Las Vegas with me will understand why...:party:

THE SHRINK
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
Joined
Mar 1, 2002
Messages
42,730
Tokens
High Limit seems the horse I like as well.

Good luck SHRINKBrenner.

:smoker2:
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,515
Messages
13,452,111
Members
99,417
Latest member
selectionpartners
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com