Need to vent

TomorrowsNewspaper · Apr 15, 2005

When I handicap baseball, I make my own line for each game. This gives me a "core" of games to choose from. I then use a few other "systems" to limit my plays, increase value etc. When I originally handicapped the games my system gave me Minny,Tor,NYM,Clev,TB,Ariz, nyy over,cleve over,ariz under, and tor under. This would have been a 9-2 day. after elimintating games etc I end up going 5-2 (take out 4 winners) and increase my two losers to double plays.

How can you go 9-2 and only win one unit?

Thanks for listening. I feel better

TheRook · Apr 15, 2005

I think your day yesterday is the exact reason I flat bet 100% of the time now.

I used to have 1-5 unit plays, and found out too much that I was winning the games at a good rate, but one or two losses of a 5 unit play can doom you.

I would never expect you to change the way you bet from just what I say...but I'd rather flat bet 1 unit each, and have a better chance of picking up profit week after week.

JMO....good luck today...great job yesterday, I hope today you have a better showing for it.

TomorrowsNewspaper · Apr 15, 2005

Thanks Rook, but I have to stick to my guns. When my system gets hot over the last couple of years, it seems to really get hot. I guess I forget about the day I go 2-3 but win both of my big plays to make money. It just really hurts on days like yesterday.

Good luck the rest of the season Rook.

TheRook · Apr 15, 2005

yep...I hear ya loud and clear. It's a great debate on flat bet vs various units.....both have good and bad points.

Thanks, and you too!

Rook

BigRed · Apr 15, 2005

Sooo....I only played 3 of your picks last night and went 1-2...how do I feel??? Any picks today? :103631605

TomorrowsNewspaper · Apr 15, 2005

Sorry Red. Hope I can make it up to you tonight. Love the Yanks under. Chen is the most improved pitcher in the league and Pavano is a stud. This number should be 9 and I even like it at 8.5

for what it is worth, the picks I didnt include today (should go 6-0)

Boston under 10
cleve under 8
cubs -140
cinny even
detroit -132
Milw -125

I usually have a lot of games qualify early in the season until the lines "catch up" and things settle down. That when the value seems to be at it's best as they stand out a bit. Usually the second month is my biggest.

good luck