Baseball Lines -- Have You Guys Noticed...?

Rhodeyy · Apr 18, 2005

Hey everybody. I've been betting Bases pretty heavily so far this year and am doing fairly well, up 8 units. Something has been nagging at me though. I bet Money Line Dogs almost exclusively and felt like I wasn't getting very good prices compared to years past so I did some research. Using BestBettor.com and Pinnacle's closing line I compared the average line this year to those in 2003 and 2004. I also compared just the lines through April 17th of those two years.:

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>All Games of 2003 & 2004:
-155.1
+145.3

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>All Games Through April 17th of 2003 & 2004:
-158.6
+148.1

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>All Games Through April 17th of 2005:
-136.4
+128.1

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>My suspicions were confirmed, and the numbers were worse than I thought -- an average of 17 cents worse per game backing the Dog! BestBettor only goes back two years, but I have lines from other sources supporting this trend going back to 1996. <o

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What am I to make of this? There is still more than 90% of the 2005 season left to play, but is it too soon to worry? Or draw conclusions? Has something actually changed with the books or the public? Or has this just been an anomalous first two weeks, filled with uncharacteristically tight match-ups?

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>I'd love to hear any thoughts or opinions you have on this. Let me know if you have any questions. Thanks in advance.

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>-Jim

Baker · Apr 18, 2005

Maybe taking steriods out of the equation has created more parity among the teams. Just a thought.

nhoj · Apr 18, 2005

Trades

So many trades these days. Has to have something to do with it. A few years ago they didnt move the player s much as they do now. Free Agents leave just for a few more bucks.

Aquatic · Apr 18, 2005

Red Sox playing the Yankees for two series to start the season kept 2 of the biggest favorites away from -200+ lines for 6 games. Other matchups have been competive as well so I think it's more scheduling than anything.

Also with bullpen weakness around the league you see lower lines on big time starters since the Marlins are the only ones throwing complete games.

captainchaos · Apr 18, 2005

oddsmakers look at this stuff too, my guess is they see they get beat by big dog players early in the season and they have adjusted the numbers down to prevent big hits by dog players. i have noticed some lines involving sea vs kc and bal vs tb being obscenely low...even the line in the bos tb series were all 20 to 40 cents lower than they should have been. i have not kept a tally but i notice the favs are doing farely well, with a 12-3 yesterday, and the only huge price i recall seeing was the unit vs bruce chen, and the yanx came back and got the win in that one. does anyone have a running tally on dogs ats so far this year?

captainchaos · Apr 18, 2005

favorites are killing again.

captainchaos · Apr 18, 2005

only dog looking decent is the orioles,,,man this is easy...why handicap when the lineman do the work for you

MrTeaser · Apr 18, 2005

Look at the games -200 or more at this point this year compared to last. You will see where the difference is coming from.

captainchaos · Apr 18, 2005

how may have been -200 so far this year....schilling today, unit vs bal, yanx vs tb.

MrTeaser · Apr 18, 2005

captain chaos said:
how may have been -200 so far this year....schilling today, unit vs bal, yanx vs tb.

schilling opened at -190. Yanks were -210 at opening. Last year if I recall lines were at -300 or greater for some games.

MrTeaser · Apr 18, 2005

I checked there were roughly 3 times more lines at -200 or more last year compared to this year.

captainchaos · Apr 18, 2005

i just went thru the scores and odds box scores for this year...on games where there was a discernable favorite, meaning no pickems, favs are 88-75 after yesterday. there are a few discrepancies on some closing numbers on that site vs offshore, but it is a pretty good reference point. quite a few pickems, and these lines are very low when you consider many dogs that hit are only paying even to +110. looking at tonight, favs look to be about 8-4 with some still out. one thing i noticed too, kc has been a fave a few times, tonight included, and that really is a joke.

CHOPTALK · Apr 18, 2005

Baseball has the sharpest players in the business when it comes to betting. There are no weekend warriors in baseball like you have in football. Therefore the books are adjusting to the sharp action. There was a day you could be sucessfull by simply betting wise dogs with proper money management. Thats not the case anymore. The books are tired of the 2% hold that have made in a good year in the past. For instance Flordia -140. This line should have been no less than -180. I have a system that I have been using for almost 6 years. It comes up with lines based on the past in simalar situations. This year my system has been way of in favor of the favorite. I had my system so fine tuned, the last few years, I would rarely have a game that was 15 cents off the opening #. This year its been off by as much as 60 cents. So the moral of the story. Its time to mix in a few favorites in your games. The dogs are not getting enough value. It used to be the other way around.

captainchaos · Apr 18, 2005

very good point choptalk. looking at tonights games...st louis, la dodgers, and florida were all teams that could have had at least a 20 to 30 cent higher price. one of the few dog wins, all the sharp money hammered the reds line to a near pickem. not sure why the books have yet to catch on to the kc and pitt woes. 2 of the worst hitting teams getting TONS of respect at home. Pitt was even favored at the start of the year in a couple games vs mil. Bottom line the books are overvaluing the dogs and that has swung the pendulum to undervalued faves.

CHOPTALK · Apr 19, 2005

captain chaos said:
very good point choptalk. looking at tonights games...st louis, la dodgers, and florida were all teams that could have had at least a 20 to 30 cent higher price. one of the few dog wins, all the sharp money hammered the reds line to a near pickem. not sure why the books have yet to catch on to the kc and pitt woes. 2 of the worst hitting teams getting TONS of respect at home. Pitt was even favored at the start of the year in a couple games vs mil. Bottom line the books are overvaluing the dogs and that has swung the pendulum to undervalued faves.

Your correct. Its not about playing dogs, its about finding out which lines have the most value. That could be a +150 or a -150. Thats where the capping comes into play. People get so caught up in finding a dog, they miss out on value in some favorites. The reason for this is because the value used to be in the dogs. Right now the value is in the small chalk. That could change next week. But for right now, people better adjust before you do too much harm to your bankroll.

Rhodeyy · Apr 19, 2005

Bump

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captainchaos · Apr 19, 2005

quite a dog day. tbb, hou(closed a s a dog in pinn), kc, fla, sea, mets, and toronto all dog winners. still there was that low lined value on both chicagos , dodgers and st louis. pads game still out but regardless of the outcome that line was way out of step on sd vs williams.

captainchaos · Apr 19, 2005

by my tally it stands 7-7 with sd the fav pending.

captainchaos · Apr 22, 2005

on 4-19 favs were 7-8, 4-20 8-7 and yesterday 11-3

total so far 114-93 to the favs....

Baseball Lines -- Have You Guys Noticed...?

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