-300 Fade Thread

ChooseORLose · Apr 20, 2005

At the beginning of the season I wrote that I wanted to start following how teams favored at -300 or more would fair throughout the distance of the season. It's something that has always intrigued me and I hope to use this site as an opportunity to track thes plays. What I'll do is run a monthly thread on these, as there shouldn't be too many games per month, and try to see how this works through the season. I do not and will not play real money on these. I play real money on all my other plays, including the series thread, but this is just for tracking purposes. Hope you don't mind, but if this is a problem, let me know and I'll stop. Thanks. All plays for risking 1 unit.

Yesterday we missed out on the first -300 fade of the season, but I will post here so as to keep this true.

April 19, 2005---NY Yankees -380/Tampa D-Rays +350

April 20, 2005---Minnesota Twins -325/Kansas City Royals +295

YTD: 1-0 +3.5 units

Aquatic · Apr 20, 2005

300+ favorites

Anybody have records for 2004 anywhere to see how this worked last year or in 03?

ronaldn · Apr 20, 2005

Great idea! You could come up with some really profitable info.

ChooseORLose · Apr 21, 2005

YTD: 1-1 +2.5 units

Close one tonight. I was at the Marlins game watching the scoreboard and saw that KC was up then I get home and see the final score. Bit of a let down but thankfully the Marlins won and I had no money on KC. Looks like there's nothing for tomorrow.

captainchaos · Apr 21, 2005

i know it is tedious but the situations where the +1.5 is + money is worth tracking as well. tonights was+1.5+140 or higher. not sure what last nights drays was but i guess along the same lines.

Sportsrmylife · Apr 21, 2005

I agree with the Run line play with the huge dog. With the run line you would be 2-0 plus both of the plays were +140 value plays.

I am very interested in this thread to see where the -300 favs end at the end of the season. Now if you play at pinnacle you get some fantastic prices on the dogs.

good luck

ChooseORLose · Apr 21, 2005

Tracking the RL is a damn good idea. Don't know why I didn't think of that also. It won't be a problem at all adding it on. It would actually be a pleasure. I'll run separate records for ML and RL, as well as a record for both combined. I'll be using the lines from pinnacle unless I see something better at another book.

April 19, 2005---NY Yankees ML -380/Tampa D-Rays ML +350---RL +1.5 +130

April 20, 2005---Minnesota Twins -325/Kansas City Royals ML +295---RL +1.5 +140

Overall YTD: 3-1 +5.2 units
ML YTD: 1-1 +2.5 units
RL YTD: 2-0 +2.7 units

ChooseORLose · Jun 9, 2005

Hey, is it me or have there not been any -300 teams since april 20. If I've missed anything could you let me know. Thanks.

Dubpoet · Jun 9, 2005

As the season goes on there will be a lot more 300 games!

SportSavant · Jun 9, 2005

the bookmakers are definatly offering much less + VIG than they did last year....

MUCH LESS....

either they got killed by Doggie bettors last year, or there is simply more parity & uncertainty in MLB this year.

it is fascinating

I remember looking forward to seeing this thread unfold......

CHOPTALK · Jun 9, 2005

SportSavant said:
the bookmakers are definatly offering much less + VIG than they did last year....

MUCH LESS....

either they got killed by Doggie bettors last year, or there is simply more parity & uncertainty in MLB this year.

it is fascinating

I remember looking forward to seeing this thread unfold......

Its hard to get a handle on these lines this year. I have a powerrating line ranking system that is not matching up to past similiar matchups if that makes any sense. The value this year is in the -150 to -180 range this year, but it so hard to pull the trigger on such high juice, so I settle on lesser low juice games and get burnt.

SportSavant · Jun 9, 2005

it may be time to start biting the bullet & taking those -150's to -180's.

have you noticed how well Bucs does when he lays the 1.5?

thing is many of those -150's to -180's were actually -200 to -240 last year, so perhaps this is where the value is?

fascinating topic.

CHOPTALK · Jun 9, 2005

SportSavant said:
it may be time to start biting the bullet & taking those -150's to -180's.

have you noticed how well Bucs does when he lays the 1.5?

thing is many of those -150's to -180's were actually -200 to -240 last year, so perhaps this is where the value is?

fascinating topic.

You are 100% correct SS. Thats was exactly my point. There are games this year that are -160 that I know for a fact would have been -200 last year. I had my lines so fine tuned last season, I could almost predict the lines to the cent. This year its all out of whack. It may indeed be time to take some of those -150s. I played my first -150 game of the year today with Toronto. Even though it lost, Toronto would have been at least -180 last season. The sportsbooks are throwing us for a loop, and because of old habits, even thought I know what they are doing I still cant pull the trigger. So I settle for the -120s that have lesser value and pass up the high value high juice games.
It seems like Bucsfan is the only one here who is not afraid to play these games and look what type of season hes having.

SportSavant · Jun 9, 2005

dont diminish your record....

+25 to 30 units this early in the season, you should be very proud, honestly.

CHOPTALK · Jun 9, 2005

SportSavant said:
dont diminish your record....

+25 to 30 units this early in the season, you should be very proud, honestly.

The record is ok. Have not sent funds to a sportsbook since football season. Its just an adjustment with the way the books are booking these games right now. It used to be easy picking the high value -120 to +120s. Now you have to go out on a limb for the high value and I have not found the courage to do that this season yet. Im starting to experiment with Pinnacles -1 lines the last few weeks. Several pushes already. LOL.

SportSavant · Jun 9, 2005

not sure if you missed the thread in the main forum about laying the -1 at Pinny....

its cheaper to put half your bet at -1.5 & the other half at ML.... especially if you shop around I think that is the way it went anyway....

Dubpoet · Jun 13, 2005

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Tue 6/14</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>973</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Francisco Giants
J. Foppert</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+270 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8 -110 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>974</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Minnesota Twins
JO. Santana</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-300 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8 +100 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Cant fade this one?

ChooseORLose · Jun 16, 2005

Dubpoet said:
<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Tue 6/14</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">973</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Francisco Giants
J. Foppert</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">
</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+270 </td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8 -110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="center">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:10 PM</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">974</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Minnesota Twins
JO. Santana</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">
</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-300 </td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8 +100 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Cant fade this one?

Dub, thanks for pointing this one out. I wasn't paying any attention. Minny pulled out the win, pulling out the cover in the 11th inning. Wagerline's final number was a -320. Since we've decided to also follow the runlines, does anybody know what it was? Otherwise, for tracking purposes I'm going to make it at +135 for San Fran.

June 14, 2005---Minnesota Twins ML -320/San Francisco Giants ML +290---RL +1.5 +135

Overall YTD: 4-2 +5.55 units
ML YTD: 1-2 +1.5 units
RL YTD: 3-0 +4.05 units

ChooseORLose · Jun 21, 2005

Huge favorite tonight with Randy Johnson and the Yankees.

Overall YTD: 4-2 +5.55 units
ML YTD: 1-2 +1.5 units
RL YTD: 3-0 +4.05 units

June 21, 2005---New York Yankees ML -358/Tampa Bay D-Rays ML +328---RL +1.5 +160

ChooseORLose · Jun 22, 2005

Amazing what happened last night. 13 runs in one inning? only Tampa could pull that off. first RL loss of the year.

Overall YTD: 4-4 +3.55 units
ML YTD: 1-3 +.5 units
+1.5 RL YTD: 3-1 +3.05 units

-300 Fade Thread

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