How To Bet The NBA Playoffs

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ODU GURU
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This is probably very elementary for many of you, but I thought I'd share some of my thoughts about betting the NBA PLAYOFFS...


HOW TO BET THE NBA PLAYOFFS...
written 4/23/05 by THE SHRINK


Starting today, the NBA begins with four playoff games to see who will be crowned the champion. Although the lines for many of these match ups are razor sharp, I believe it is possible to beat the bookmaker. So, let me share with you a few tips on what I look for at this time of year.

1-LIVE UNDERDOGS- I have often wondered who coined this phrase because I really like it. However, how does one decide what constitutes a LIVE DOG from a DEAD one? Personally, I consider a LIVE DOG to be a team not only capable of covering the spread, but one that has a shot at winning the game outright.

2-MATCHUPS- Certain teams match up better against their opponents than others do even though they may not have as good a record. I can't stress to you the importance of recognizing teams who have a superior match up advantage against their opponent. One only needs to look at how certain teams have fared against one another to figure this out.

3-INJURIES- This usually separates the Professionals from the Amateurs. It's often a race between the lines maker and the Wise Guy to get the information first because quite often, the line will move depending on WHO is injured and the severity of the injury. DonBest.com is an excellent source for obtaining this information in a timely manner..

4-LINE MOVES- You don't have to be a Professional to follow line movement. Usually, the best information is the latest information, so I suggest betting as late as possible unless the number you are looking for is about to vanish. For example, Dallas is a 5 1/2 point favorite today against Houston but a couple of 5's remain at the time I am writing this. If you like the favorite, you may want to bet it now because the 5's are likely to disappear quicker than the 5 1/2's. Also, pay close attention when an UNDERDOG gets bet heavy and the line moves in favor of the Dog. Unless proven otherwise, this is a SYNDICATE/PROFESSIONAL bet because the Public tends to bet Favorites and Overs. If you are fortunate enough to catch a slow moving bookmaker or one that inflates point spreads, I'd advocate jumping on board with the Professionals and taking the Underdog. I would also predict that in this case, it would be classified as a LIVE DOG.

5-BE A CONTRARIAN- One overrated scenario is taking the team that loses game 1 and betting them in game 2. Don't be suckered into this blindly. Quite often, when a 5 point favorite wins game 1 by 15 points, the line on game 2 is only 4 because the team that has lost game 1 has their back against the wall. However, this has been factored into the point spread by the line going down! In fact, I prefer to look for situations to play the same team again when there is VALUE due to the line maker overcompensating on this trend. The same holds true whenever a DOG wins outright. The team that was favored to win by 5 points will undoubtedly be favored by 6. Again, I look for reasons to take the DOG again whenever possible, knowing the whole world will be betting the Favorite ...

6-BET FAVORITES EARLY & UNDERDOGS LATE- Since the Public often bets just before game time, you are much more likely to gain a much needed and appreciated half point edge when betting the Underdog close to game time. The opposite holds true if you like the Favorite. Bet them early before the Public inflates that number when they enter the market later on.

7-LOOK FOR STREAKS- Certain teams will rise to the occasion in the playoffs and play better than expected. If you spot a team you see is playing at a level and intensity they haven't show in the Regular Season, keep betting them because the chances are it will take the odds makers longer to adjust to this and figure out a fair line. In other words, be ahead of the bookmakers who make the spread. Quite often, you will see a team cover 5 out of 6 at this time of year. You will be amply rewarded if you figure out WHO before the bookie does.

8-BET ON TEAMS THAT HAVE GREAT DEFENSES- One needs to look no further than last years's NBA FINALS to realize that DEFENSES win basketball games. In fact, DEFENSES are much more consistent than Offenses, so you know that a good defensive team will have its A game, but the same cannot be guaranteed with Offenses. The Detroit Pistons shocked the World last year with their Defense by crushing the heavily favored Los Angeles Lakers, whose Offense never showed up.

9-BE WILLING TO PASS- As I mentioned at the onset, the lines on these NBA playoff games are often razor sharp. Don't be afraid to PASS and wait for a better opportunity to strike. Be careful not to bet a game because it's on TV and you are bored. Sometimes the best bet is truly the NO BET. especially when you would have had the Losing side. That, in itself is a WINNER...

10-ALWAYS BUY ONTO BUT NOT OFF OF 2. This may be a tad advanced for some, but many Professionals will BUY a 1 1/2 point DOG to PLUS 2 minus 20 or BUY a 2 1/2 point FAVORITE down to 2 minus 20. I strongly adhere to this but only onto the 2 and not off of the 2. The reason is quite simple. The 2 represents the single most important number when betting Basketball. It is the equivalent to the "3" in football, though not as strong. I don't recommend buying points in any other situations except this one..

I hope these 10 "pearls" help make you better prepared when betting the NBA playoffs this season. If you have any questions regarding this article, feel free to contact me at aw222@aol.com

THE SHRINK
 
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You had a theory about buying on and off the #7,didnt you?How should we approach that this playoffs?
 

ODU GURU
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Greenhead,

I still do but I didn't want to get into all of that in this read..

I believe the 7 is very important and it isn't bad to BUY onto it in CERTAIN situations...

It's because teams usually stop fouling late in the game when the spread is 7 due to the fact that it takes 3 possessions to win...

THE SHRINK
 

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Awesome post Shrink! A+++ Thank you for sharing.

I have come a very long way with my gambling following your advice as well as others here.

I wish everyone the best of luck in the NBA playoffs, it truly is one of my favorite times of the year.
 

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anyone want to buy off form me at 20 cents on the dollar my all over all favorites parlay I just made?

good article shrink.

Can Philly be one plus the bucket of points today + 9 1/2 at Skybook
 
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ODU GURU
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RobFunk said:
Awesome post Shrink! A+++ Thank you for sharing.

I have come a very long way with my gambling following your advice as well as others here.

I wish everyone the best of luck in the NBA playoffs, it truly is one of my favorite times of the year.

Thanks RobFunk,

I truly appreciate the kind feedback. We do have LOTS of talented posters that make this place awsome...

THE SHRINK
 

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Hope everybody has a very profitable NBA Playoffs..........remember to shop, shop, shop for that best number!

-F-
 

Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out
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Shrink:


Who are you betting today?
 
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Still a little confused on the buy on/off of 7? Last year it was of course, you always do it. Is there a steadfast guideline here, or a gut feeling, a theory? Just want a clarification. My list is similar to yours, but instead of cliff notes I am writing the book. Very good general guidelines. But all for not if you do not get the best number. This is the time you want as many outs as you can afford, spread thin if needed. Still waiting for your new team as the Lakers failed to make it this year. No guarantee or lock required. Who is your horse this year The SHRINK?

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
 

Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out
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O F:



I would like to know who you are playing today? If you don't mind sharing of course. Also did you make any series or futures plays?




Thanks
 

ODU GURU
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Although I haven't pulled the trigger yet, I am strongly considering the Boston Celtics...

Best of Luck,

THE SHRINK
 
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I will do what I am supposed to do at this forum, this year. Post at the Tracker Forum. Although it is very restrictive I understand that. I just do not limit myself to sides and totals. Props, 1/2 times, series and futures always makeup a good part of my portfolio. But like I said, as a forum member comes a responsibility to others. I will do it right. As far as an early prop, Pinny has a ov/un # of 7 game series. The # is 2. My first open prediction is, unlike last year, this early round will be extremely competitive. I am not the only one, look at the exact series results. How many have to win in 7, favorite, or second choice? I think there are a couple of big faves that may struggle. Probably 4 or 5 series that go 6 games. I need two 7's to kiss sis. Very probably. High side seems more likely than low. Don't want to steal The SHRINKS thread here, so that is that. Will start an NBA thread on a team or jump into someone elses. Hache Man and I had a wild Indy/Motown thread last year. Back and forth until the conferences finals ended. But it never turned into a pissin match. One of my alltime favorites. Luckily I had the final gloat post. Gotta roll, ain't getting paid to post, and I am on the clock now...

Best Wishes...OF:digit:
 

Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out
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Thanks Shrink:


Did you make any series or futures plays?
 

ODU GURU
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OF,

Feel free to post in this thread anytime you wish. You are not stealing it as I asked others for their opinions today...

Hitman,

No Series or Futures bets YET...

If I do, I will let you know...

Ken
 
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THE SHRINK said:
Although I haven't pulled the trigger yet, I am strongly considering the Boston Celtics...

Best of Luck,

THE SHRINK

What? Boston Celtics? Considering them for what? Covering the spread in a playoff game? Real nice playoff record. 0-4 ATS last year, broomed without a cover. Quit goofing off The SHRINK, no more Old Dom to prop you up, pick the real team. By the way, I like Indy to possibly upset Celtics. Much better defense. What rule was that again?

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
 

ODU GURU
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Froggie,

With all due respect, I could give a rat's ass what their playoff record was LAST YEAR ATS...

I do like BOSTON tonight, NOT for the Series, but laying minus 3 AT HOME and it is noted that you like the other side..

May the better team win tonight sir...

I am sure you are right as you usually are, but I'll just take a stab and see if I can get lucky against the almighty one...

Rivet...

P.S.

I guess you CONVENIENTLY forgot this thread a couple nights back?

I don't believe ODU was ever mentioned..:drink:

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=273593

THE SHRINK
 
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Froggie, any chance we can get your weekend card or leans (before tip off?)

Shrinkie.... only one game you like all weekend?

Why is it that I love the NETS tomorrow?
 

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