Qestion for Mathematicians.... (middling/Scalping)

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BOOK A: has + 10 -110

BOOK B: has 3 Options: (-9 +100) or (-9.5 +109) or (-10 +119)

Do you:

a) Play the + 10 against -9
b) Play the + 10 against -9.5
c) Play the + 10 against -10 setting up the scalp so that if the Fav covers you win Vig.
d) Play the + 10 against the -10 setting up the scalp so you win a small amount regardless of the outcome
e) Play the + 10 against the -10 setting up the scalp so you win if the Dog COvers

***The game in Question is the NBA & you have no real opinion on the game***
 

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It is more a preference of your risk tolerance than anything else.

If you put a dime on the plus side and 1147 on the minus you lock in $43.
The -9.5 option means you are spending $48 dollars for a chance to win $995. In other words if you think the probability of the game landing on 10 is greater than 4.8% then it is worth a shot.
The -9 option means you are spending $91 for a chance to win $1000 or $952 if the game lands on 9 or 10. The probability breakpoint here is about 9.7%.
I would take the sure $43 because if I did the other options the game would land on 11.
 

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I'd guess the chance of the number landing on 9 or 10 is not high enough for the middle. So I'd play (d) if I had no opinion, but the line's already moved.
 

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The -9.5 option means you are spending $48 dollars for a chance to win $995. In other words if you think the

-110 vs +109

risk 1100 to win 1000
risk 1000 to win 1090

woudnt you only be risking 10$? :icon_conf
 

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Many times I encounter around the same situation. I hit up A, then back up my amount risked with a scalp via D to cover whatever amount I am risking on the 9,10 side. By the looks of these odds and vig I dont know if there really is a right or wrong answer as they all look good long-term to me.

that -9.5 +109 and +10 for only a buck juice looks like a sweeeeeet deal too. That option is probably the best as you are in fact risking 9 cents juice to get from 9.5 down to -9(comparing option A to option B).
 
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You take the scalp. 10 would have to hit slightly greater than 4% of the time to justify "B". "A" is so bad it isn't worth figuring. C, D, or E depends on the market consensus.
 

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<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175>archimedes<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_1908630", true); </SCRIPT>

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</TD><TD class=alt1><!-- icon and title -->
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->You take the scalp. 10 would have to hit slightly greater than 4% of the time to justify "B". "A" is so bad it isn't worth figuring. C, D, or E depends on the market consensus.


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>





.....is that you SPIVE..SIMPLE GAME:howdy:
 

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PHP:
-110 vs +109

risk 1100 to win 1000
risk 1000 to win 1090

woudnt you only be risking 10$? :icon_conf

You already can already make $43 in the scalp, plus $5 for the losing scalp above. The opportunity cost is $48. The actual cost is $5.
 

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monicus said:
PHP:
-110 vs +109
 
risk 1100 to win 1000
risk 1000 to win 1090
 
woudnt you only be risking 10$? :icon_conf

You already can already make $43 in the scalp, plus $5 for the losing scalp above. The opportunity cost is $48. The actual cost is $5.

Excellent point.
 

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I do this frequently:
lay 1100 to win 1000 +10
lay 1050 to win 1050 -9

You lose 50 outside the numbers ; you win $1000 on 9 or 10.

20 to 1 on one of those numbers - clear winner in long run.:103631605
 

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Excellent question. First of all, you really can't screw this up. You're a winner no matter how you play it.

Technically, the scalp is the most profitable play here. It all depends on the likelihood that you assign to hitting the number 9 or 10. If you assume 3.5%, for a 'to win $1,000' wager on the -110's and the correspending cover, you will have expected return of $23.50 for the -9+100/+10-110; $30.42 for the -9.5+109/+10-110; and $39.77 for the -10-110/+10+119. If anyone really wants the math breakdown, let me know.

That said, I wouldn't knock anyone who played the the -9 or -9.5 try. It's all good.
 

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SportSavant said:
***The game in Question is the NBA & you have no real opinion on the game***

Which is the case most games you wager on. :nono5:

Sorry couldnt resist.

Some day I will have to figure out why I mess with you so much.

May have something to do with jealousy.
 

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D2 gives good answer, as usual. My thought was all are +EV, with scalp marginally best because it has least juice built into it ( I presume).
 

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114-103 Final

should have gone for the scalp, I trust D2 in his mathematical assertion that long term it is the wisest move....

of course the HIGH if hitting a dime for no risk was too tempting so I went for the side....

DAMN CLOSE,

all I needed was a basket at the end by Memphis, they took the shot, but missed....

:drink: :drink: :drink: :drink:
 

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i know, i was really hoping they would call it a game, id be going to bed with a big smile....
 

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I liked the final, I had pk/+2 on the 4th qtr.



SportSavant said:
114-103 Final

should have gone for the scalp, I trust D2 in his mathematical assertion that long term it is the wisest move....

of course the HIGH if hitting a dime for no risk was too tempting so I went for the side....

DAMN CLOSE,

all I needed was a basket at the end by Memphis, they took the shot, but missed....

:drink: :drink: :drink: :drink:
 

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