Calculating true odds from money lines

ganchrow · Apr 26, 2005

OK, let's assume a perfectly efficient sportbook's moneyline is d for the dog and -f for the favorite where d>100, f>100, and d-f = -10.

What does this imply about the true odds of either team's winning?

ganchrow · Apr 26, 2005

ganchrow said:
OK, let's assume a perfectly efficient sportbook's moneyline is d for the dog and -f for the favorite where d>100, f>100, and d-f = -10.

What does this imply about the true odds of either team's winning?

Perhaps it's:

Prob[Fave winning] = (100+d) / (200 + d + 10000/f)

?

ganchrow · Apr 26, 2005

ganchrow said:
OK, let's assume a perfectly efficient sportbook's moneyline is d for the dog and -f for the favorite where d>100, f>100, and d-f = -10.

What does this imply about the true odds of either team's winning?

And for a moneyline of -d for the dog and -f for the fave with d+f = -10

perhaps it's:

Prob[Fave winning] = (d-100) / (2d - 100 - 100d/f)

?

RPM · Apr 26, 2005

where is mathprof when you need him....

ganchrow · Apr 26, 2005

ganchrow said:
And for a moneyline of -d for the dog and -f for the fave with d+f = -10

perhaps it's:

Prob[Fave winning] = (d-100) / (2d - 100 - 100d/f)

?

Sorry, had teh sign on the d wrong, make that:
(d+100) / (2d + 100 + 100d/f)

I think?