When capping baseball, is your personal favorite...

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UF. Champion U.
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Just a quick question to everyone on the baseball forum. Thought I'd throw a changeup here and make an actual POST that isn't a pick here.

Obviously, a combination of multiple factors go into capping. But if you HAD to choose, when you cap, what do you feel you would rank as the strongest indicator for making your selection. (Besides scheduled pitchers)

If I HAD to choose, I would say any type of a glaring streak is the most important. Baseball is a very streaky game. Hitting streaks, scoreless inning streaks, etc. When I cap, I try to bet on team's that are at the beginning of something special. Hot hitting, hot pitching, winning streak, etc. Everything is contagious. Recent evidence of this would be the White Sox winning streak, the Dodgers were pretty hot and have now cooled off, Marlins complete games and shutouts were hot for awhile, etc.

What factor(s) do you feel are the most important for capping baseball?
 

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I know you bet the NBA. One thing you need to get out of your system is home field. I know home court is huge in the NBA, but not as important in baseball. I dont mean its not important, just not as important as the NBA.The simple fact that the home team gets to bat last is an advantage alone. Of course pitching matchups is absolutly the most important factor. Not just starting pitching, but the bullpens too. I would suggest never betting action. Always bet listed pitchers. Study, study, study. Always stay a day and a half ahead of scedule. Learn to bet the overnight lines. If you do your homework early. You can hit the overnights as soon as they come out. When you learn how to judge line value, thats when the money starts rolling in.
 

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I usually like taking opposite of total runs between a pitcher...for example...LA pitcher went under last game...so i got over tonight, nothing real big but just like stupid stuff like that, not the best capper but sometimes i have my streaks
 

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Box, I think that is very sound advise. Generally, is not a good idea to wager against a streak. If you can isolate or predict when streaks will begin and use good money management, you should do well.

Personally, I don't have the time to cap like I would like to but try to coattail some cappers here that follow the same money management style that fits my tolerance for risk and bankroll. I do think that there is a little too much emphasis placed on pitching these days. It used to be much more important than it is now. Injuries are a little overrated as well. There is sometimes good value in a team that may have an injury. Clubhouse morale is important more than ever now for many reasons. I would try and avoid teams that have poison in the clubhouse. No stats to back any of this crap up with, just an observation.
 

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Boxslayer32 said:
Just a quick question to everyone on the baseball forum. Thought I'd throw a changeup here and make an actual POST that isn't a pick here.

Obviously, a combination of multiple factors go into capping. But if you HAD to choose, when you cap, what do you feel you would rank as the strongest indicator for making your selection. (Besides scheduled pitchers)

If I HAD to choose, I would say any type of a glaring streak is the most important. Baseball is a very streaky game. Hitting streaks, scoreless inning streaks, etc. When I cap, I try to bet on team's that are at the beginning of something special. Hot hitting, hot pitching, winning streak, etc. Everything is contagious. Recent evidence of this would be the White Sox winning streak, the Dodgers were pretty hot and have now cooled off, Marlins complete games and shutouts were hot for awhile, etc.

What factor(s) do you feel are the most important for capping baseball?



without a doubt, there is no argueing this. the most important factor in betting baseball is the line.
 

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Chop -

Very good advice. I'll definitely take that into consideration. I definitely don't factor home field in as much as the NBA, but I do have a tendency to factor it in a little more than I should out of habit.

Thatsrich-

I agree. I think pitching is so watered down too, it's tough to find a good pitcher; especially in the pen. I know a lot of good young pitchers on a personal level that are either in the bigs or will be in the bigs by the end of the year. These guys will be studs in the majors, but it's just tough to cap them early going in their careers because each pitcher reacts differently to their first few starts. I've lost some on Greinke, Kazmir, etc. It really comes down to lineups, matchups and how hot the respective hitting or pitching is, I feel. But I could be wrong, still learning.

Jasin -
I've tried that similiar myself. I factor that in at times. Particularly, if a home team is clearly better than the visitor, and the home team drops game 1, I take a hard look at them to respond the next day to force a series day in game 3. But, I'm learning to not factor in homefield as much as I do. However, from my experience in a 3 game set the first game sets the tone for the series more times than not. If game 1 is a 1-0 pitcher's duel, I can't see game 2 being any more than a 4-3 final. I think this ties in with the baseball contagious effect. Of course, there will be exceptions to this rule. How are you fairing by using that strategy?

RPM -
Definitely a good point. But let's not let that end the discussion. Someone might come bust out some wacky tool they use to cap games and it might end up working for us. Some guy might say, "I like to see how the leadoff man fairs against the pitcher lifetime. Because if the leadoff man struggles to get on base, the team usually struggles." And it may work for him. So, let's keep it going.
 

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I just judge by the lines and movements of the lines. Also look at the value of the run lines too. The main thing I go with is my first decision. Never second guess yourself or youve already lost. Not the game always but your decision making! You the man though box your boys are gonna be NBA champs!:103631605
 

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C-Lo-
What kind of line changes do you look for? Do you bet with or against the line change? If a line opens up a Braves -140 and O/U 8.5, and the line then goes to Braves -120 and O/U 8, you would bet the line changes?
In terms of the Heat, they look stellar right now. I think that Detroit series is scary. Not just because Detroit has the ability to beat the Heat. But if the Heat do get by Detroit, it's going to require a ton of bodies getting pounded in the low post. Then, the tired Heat will most likely play a high paced running Phoenix Suns squad. Long tough road ahead.
 

RPM

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C-LO said:
I just judge by the lines and movements of the lines. Also look at the value of the run lines too. The main thing I go with is my first decision. Never second guess yourself or youve already lost. Not the game always but your decision making! You the man though box your boys are gonna be NBA champs!:103631605



if you second guess yourself at all, stay off that game...
 

RPM

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if you bet a team at -140 and the line moves to -120, you are on the wrong side of that game....
 

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For that one I would bet the dog or leave it alone. The total I would not touch. I seriously dont start making decisions till noon. Then I will usually think about them throughout the day an dmake up my mind about 1-2 hrs before gametime. Like RPM just agreed if you second guess yourself you should quit. If you study for a while I feel you ahve put too much thought into a game!:103631605
 

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one thing i look at that have had mucho success is how a pitcher fares in a particular ballpark. e.g. prior to tonight, r lopez simply owned boston in fenway. while he got shelled, the other factor for me was that he has an offense to make up for his DUE to give something up. that is a play i wasnt in love with but i had it marked at the beginning of the year to play it bc i have had success with him there in past. another example is fartolo colon in anaheim stadium....awful. i pick and choose my spots but that guy has a near 5 era in his HOME park. does not get that many plays but man i do find nuggets. also use this angle in determining a play on total in certain parks.
 

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what are some of the best baseball websites that you cappers use. i use cbs sportsline and mlb.com sometimes jim feist's site.
 

UF. Champion U.
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statfox.com can give you a lot of info on umpires

wagerline.com can give you information on how the public is betting and other trends
 

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