FLA @ COL over 12 +105
Both Leiter and Kennedy have, by far, the worst ERA's of their respective teams' starters (5.66 and 8.18). Both Florida and Colorado hit lefties pretty damn well (Florida .323 on the season and Colorado .357 at home). The home plate umpire Poncino is a 57% 'over' ump in last three years, and his games average about 10 rpg during that time. Leiter is having control problems so far this year, as evidenced by his 1.00 K/BB ratio and Kennedy is getting hurt by long balls ( 6 ytd ). They have a combined average MOB of 16.20 and opp OPS of .868 which is very, very bad. Kennedy has been hammered all three times when he had to face the opponents lineups for the first time of the season, allowing 18 ER in 15.1 IP. Leiter's horrible ERA looks even worst when you know that he pitched all four times at pitcher friendly ballparks, and now he is going to the hitters 'nirvana' to face the batting average leaders, the Rockies. Florida is one of those teams that is used to play @ pitcher friendly ballparks and they should be able to take advantage of this ballpark, and to give Leiter a better run support today. Florida's pen has been impressive (2.09 ERA) so far this season but this ERA should go up today as the relievers will probably have to pitch a few more innings as Leiter only lasts 5 innings per game ytd. Colorado's bullpen is just horrible (7.74 ERA) and these guys just continue to add a tremendous value to the 'over' in every single Coors field game this season.
WS
Both Leiter and Kennedy have, by far, the worst ERA's of their respective teams' starters (5.66 and 8.18). Both Florida and Colorado hit lefties pretty damn well (Florida .323 on the season and Colorado .357 at home). The home plate umpire Poncino is a 57% 'over' ump in last three years, and his games average about 10 rpg during that time. Leiter is having control problems so far this year, as evidenced by his 1.00 K/BB ratio and Kennedy is getting hurt by long balls ( 6 ytd ). They have a combined average MOB of 16.20 and opp OPS of .868 which is very, very bad. Kennedy has been hammered all three times when he had to face the opponents lineups for the first time of the season, allowing 18 ER in 15.1 IP. Leiter's horrible ERA looks even worst when you know that he pitched all four times at pitcher friendly ballparks, and now he is going to the hitters 'nirvana' to face the batting average leaders, the Rockies. Florida is one of those teams that is used to play @ pitcher friendly ballparks and they should be able to take advantage of this ballpark, and to give Leiter a better run support today. Florida's pen has been impressive (2.09 ERA) so far this season but this ERA should go up today as the relievers will probably have to pitch a few more innings as Leiter only lasts 5 innings per game ytd. Colorado's bullpen is just horrible (7.74 ERA) and these guys just continue to add a tremendous value to the 'over' in every single Coors field game this season.
WS
