Baseball is enjoying a revival of young pitching talent. Here are 10 young guns to watch:
Royals RHP Zack Greinke
Strengths: Greinke throws two-seam and four-seam fastballs with only average velocity but with fine command. He sinks, runs, and cuts the fastball, using it to get ahead of hitters. Greinke's 75-79 mph curve, which has a sharp "spike" drop, is his best pitch. He has a very effective slow curve as well, and can vary speeds with a deceptive circle changeup. He is poised and smart and has outstanding command. Greinke is an above-average competitor who, according to one AL scout, "has the chance to be special."
Weaknesses: Because Greinke is not an especially hard thrower, he will get hurt if he struggles with his command. The slider isn't helping him much; he was touched for 26 home runs last season, many on hanging breaking balls. While his stuff fully warranted a call to the major leagues (after just 35 minor-league games), Greinke has not experienced failure in the minors and is learning to adjust at the top level.
Comparison: Not many veteran pitchers can boast the arsenal of Zack Greinke, never mind youngsters, so comparisons are very difficult. Most pitchers with good curves depend on power in their other pitches. Greinke's arsenal and approach are much like that of Orlando Hernandez, minus "El Duque's" motion. Both of them are extremely competitive; they don't give in to hitters, they spot the fastball and sport fine breaking balls, like to change speeds on everything, and are thinkers on the hill. The historical comparison is a no-brainer: Greinke closely resembles the young Bret Saberhagen and could well give the Royals another Cy Young pitcher.
White Sox RHP Brandon McCarthy
Strengths: The formerly unheralded McCarthy had a fantastic season in 2004, going 17-6 for three different Sox farm clubs. He has two-seam and four-seam fastballs in the low 90s and a plus curve that he uses to get strikeouts. McCarthy is tall and seems to explode at hitters, but he keeps the ball down and doesn't walk anybody.
Weaknesses: McCarthy has only made four starts above Class A, which means he has a lot of learning-by-experience ahead of him. His changeup is still developing. Stuff-wise, McCarthy's fastball/curve arsenal isn't uncommon, but having the ability to pitch in the majors with control is.
Comparison: He hasn't filled out yet, weighing around 190, which leads to comparisons to another tall stick figure, Randy Johnson (McCarthy is three inches shorter). However, McCarthy lacks the young Big Unit's overwhelming power. If all goes well and McCarthy continues to improve with experience, he just might approach the level of Roy Halladay -- if he can develop a change as good as that of the Toronto ace.
Cubs RHP Angel Guzman
Strengths: Guzman, a three-pitch pitcher, sports a solid curve, a baffling changeup, and a mid-90s sinking fastball that is a ground-ball generator. He keeps the ball down; in 48 innings last season, the slim Venezuelan allowed just four homers.
Weaknesses: Guzman pitched just 48 innings in 2004 because he spent most of the year rehabilitating from 2003 shoulder surgery. He began this year on the DL at Double-A with a strained forearm. Guzman almost certainly will need a lot of innings to get himself ready for full-time big-league duty.
Comparison: Though the comparison must be regarded as preliminary given Guzman's lack of experience, his raw stuff can be compared to that of San Diego's Jake Peavy. Guzman, however, gets more ground balls than Peavy and fewer strikeouts. Both righties have a mid-90s fastball, good command, a sharp breaking pitch, and an effective change.
Astros RHP Ezequiel Astacio
Strengths: The Astros prospect features a refined split-finger pitch that helped him fan a Texas League-leading 185 hitters last season. He also throws a sinking and rising fastball, both in the 90s, and a hard curve.
Weaknesses: Astacio doesn't yet have a true changeup; everything he throws is hard. This will make it difficult for him to get past good fastball hitters if he can't place his curve where he wants it. If he doesn't develop something to keep hitters off balance, the Astros may choose to develop him as a reliever. Astacio is slim, weighing just over 150 pounds, and has had some wild streaks.
Comparison: While Astacio is not likely to find immediate stardom, he can be compared to Pedro Martinez because of his small size, his good velocity, his multiple plus pitches, and his ability to move the fastball all over the strike zone. The key element that projection lacks is Pedro's devastating change-of-pace.
Pirates LHP Zach Duke
Strengths: Duke's curve is top-notch. More a sweeper than a hard breaker, it can freeze both lefties and righties. Duke has excellent poise and command for a youngster and keeps his sinker down.
Weaknesses: While Duke is athletic and strong, he lacks an overpowering fastball and will have to win with control. The fact that his changeup isn't yet ready for major-league hitters is no surprise; he had made just nine starts above Class A before this year. There's time -- as well as room -- for improvement.
Comparison: Colorado's Jeff Francis, another highly regarded lefty, uses a sharp curve (with a harder break) and an effective sinking fastball. Duke, like Francis, needs to have good control to win, and eventual success for both will depend on it.
Braves RHP Roman Colon
Strengths: Colon didn't truly blossom until last season at Triple-A when the Braves moved him full-time to the bullpen. He has a sharp slider, a sinking fastball, and a splitter that gets strikeouts. Colon is just the kind of young pitcher who has thrived when brought to Atlanta.
Weaknesses: Since Colon rarely walks anyone and keeps the ball down, he puts a lot of balls into play. Backed by quality defensive infielders, Colon could be successful, though he does tend to give up a very high total of unearned runs. It would be a surprise if Colon's future isn't limited to relief work.
Comparison: Many successful relievers are converted starters. Danny Kolb, ahead of Colon in the Braves bullpen, is also a sinkerballing reliever, but without Colon's potential for punchouts. Akinori Otsuka of San Diego, an effective setup pitcher with a sinker/slider/split arsenal, is more comparable.
Brewers LHP Jorge de la Rosa
Strengths: De la Rosa converted to starting three years ago; he was much more effective in 2004 after a stint on the disabled list mandated by a sore shoulder. A strikeout pitcher with a moving fastball in the low to mid 90s, de la Rosa has mountains of potential.
Weaknesses: De la Rosa has struggled at times with his command of his fastball and still must be considered a thrower rather than a pitcher. Shoulder injuries are a warning sign for any pitcher, and de la Rosa has never even thrown as many as 140 innings in a season.
Comparison: The Brewers believe that his velocity is better than that of Teddy Higuera at a comparable age, but De La Rosa needs better control to attain comparable success. He has also been compared to the infamous John Rocker, another lefty with good stuff and questionable makeup.
A's RHP Danny Haren
Strengths: Haren has matured into a promising ground-ball pitcher. Using a moving sinker and a darting slider, he comes at hitters aggressively from a high three-quarters delivery. A plus competitor, Haren challenges hitters and is stingy with walks. The A's fully expect him to be an effective mid-rotation starter for several years, and he's moving into a pitcher's park.
Weaknesses: Haren won't blow anyone away; his fastball isn't a strikeout pitch, although he's improving his ability to close out hitters with the slider. His delivery doesn't have much deception, and Haren, like most pitchers lacking outstanding velocity, can be taken deep when he makes mistakes. His changeup is still developing, although it is expected to eventually rate above average.
Comparison: The Athletics hope that Haren's sinker, slider, and change will bring him to the level of Carl Pavano, a similar three-pitch righty starter with fine stuff and control.
Giants RHP Matt Cain
Strengths: Cain's reputation as a top prospect precedes him; he isn't going to sneak up on anyone. He features a low-to-mid 90s sinker, a hard slider, an above-par curve, and a changeup that has improved significantly. Cain doesn't allow many home runs and has a good, strong build. He clearly has No. 1 starter stuff, as well as poise and intelligence.
Weaknesses: Cain missed time in 2003 due to a stress fracture in his pitching elbow. He struggled some with his control after being promoted to Double-A last season, typical of a pitcher with his youth and inexperience.
Comparison: The Giants would be thrilled if Cain's career were to track the path of John Smoltz, who blossomed at age 22 into a dominating pitcher with power stuff and several plus pitches.
Phillies RHP Gavin Floyd
Strengths: Floyd has one of the best curves in baseball, a pitch that breaks straight downward (called a "12-6 break"). Floyd also has improved his changeup and potentially could be an excellent starter.
Weaknesses: The curve is by far his best pitch. Floyd doesn't throw that hard, settling in comfortably with the fastball at around 90. His command is sometimes inconsistent, and he may have been rushed to the majors to his detriment.
Comparison: Barry Zito may be the closest comparison, even though he's a southpaw. Zito lacks big velocity but has excellent movement on his curve, fastball, and change. If Floyd improves his command to the level of Zito's, he'll be a winner and a fixture in the Phillies rotation for years to come.
Gary Gillette is the editor of the 2005 ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, which was published in March by Sterling. Click here to order a copy. Gary can be reached via e-mail at GGillette@247Baseball.com.
Royals RHP Zack Greinke
Strengths: Greinke throws two-seam and four-seam fastballs with only average velocity but with fine command. He sinks, runs, and cuts the fastball, using it to get ahead of hitters. Greinke's 75-79 mph curve, which has a sharp "spike" drop, is his best pitch. He has a very effective slow curve as well, and can vary speeds with a deceptive circle changeup. He is poised and smart and has outstanding command. Greinke is an above-average competitor who, according to one AL scout, "has the chance to be special."
Weaknesses: Because Greinke is not an especially hard thrower, he will get hurt if he struggles with his command. The slider isn't helping him much; he was touched for 26 home runs last season, many on hanging breaking balls. While his stuff fully warranted a call to the major leagues (after just 35 minor-league games), Greinke has not experienced failure in the minors and is learning to adjust at the top level.
Comparison: Not many veteran pitchers can boast the arsenal of Zack Greinke, never mind youngsters, so comparisons are very difficult. Most pitchers with good curves depend on power in their other pitches. Greinke's arsenal and approach are much like that of Orlando Hernandez, minus "El Duque's" motion. Both of them are extremely competitive; they don't give in to hitters, they spot the fastball and sport fine breaking balls, like to change speeds on everything, and are thinkers on the hill. The historical comparison is a no-brainer: Greinke closely resembles the young Bret Saberhagen and could well give the Royals another Cy Young pitcher.
White Sox RHP Brandon McCarthy
Strengths: The formerly unheralded McCarthy had a fantastic season in 2004, going 17-6 for three different Sox farm clubs. He has two-seam and four-seam fastballs in the low 90s and a plus curve that he uses to get strikeouts. McCarthy is tall and seems to explode at hitters, but he keeps the ball down and doesn't walk anybody.
Weaknesses: McCarthy has only made four starts above Class A, which means he has a lot of learning-by-experience ahead of him. His changeup is still developing. Stuff-wise, McCarthy's fastball/curve arsenal isn't uncommon, but having the ability to pitch in the majors with control is.
Comparison: He hasn't filled out yet, weighing around 190, which leads to comparisons to another tall stick figure, Randy Johnson (McCarthy is three inches shorter). However, McCarthy lacks the young Big Unit's overwhelming power. If all goes well and McCarthy continues to improve with experience, he just might approach the level of Roy Halladay -- if he can develop a change as good as that of the Toronto ace.
Cubs RHP Angel Guzman
Strengths: Guzman, a three-pitch pitcher, sports a solid curve, a baffling changeup, and a mid-90s sinking fastball that is a ground-ball generator. He keeps the ball down; in 48 innings last season, the slim Venezuelan allowed just four homers.
Weaknesses: Guzman pitched just 48 innings in 2004 because he spent most of the year rehabilitating from 2003 shoulder surgery. He began this year on the DL at Double-A with a strained forearm. Guzman almost certainly will need a lot of innings to get himself ready for full-time big-league duty.
Comparison: Though the comparison must be regarded as preliminary given Guzman's lack of experience, his raw stuff can be compared to that of San Diego's Jake Peavy. Guzman, however, gets more ground balls than Peavy and fewer strikeouts. Both righties have a mid-90s fastball, good command, a sharp breaking pitch, and an effective change.
Astros RHP Ezequiel Astacio
Strengths: The Astros prospect features a refined split-finger pitch that helped him fan a Texas League-leading 185 hitters last season. He also throws a sinking and rising fastball, both in the 90s, and a hard curve.
Weaknesses: Astacio doesn't yet have a true changeup; everything he throws is hard. This will make it difficult for him to get past good fastball hitters if he can't place his curve where he wants it. If he doesn't develop something to keep hitters off balance, the Astros may choose to develop him as a reliever. Astacio is slim, weighing just over 150 pounds, and has had some wild streaks.
Comparison: While Astacio is not likely to find immediate stardom, he can be compared to Pedro Martinez because of his small size, his good velocity, his multiple plus pitches, and his ability to move the fastball all over the strike zone. The key element that projection lacks is Pedro's devastating change-of-pace.
Pirates LHP Zach Duke
Strengths: Duke's curve is top-notch. More a sweeper than a hard breaker, it can freeze both lefties and righties. Duke has excellent poise and command for a youngster and keeps his sinker down.
Weaknesses: While Duke is athletic and strong, he lacks an overpowering fastball and will have to win with control. The fact that his changeup isn't yet ready for major-league hitters is no surprise; he had made just nine starts above Class A before this year. There's time -- as well as room -- for improvement.
Comparison: Colorado's Jeff Francis, another highly regarded lefty, uses a sharp curve (with a harder break) and an effective sinking fastball. Duke, like Francis, needs to have good control to win, and eventual success for both will depend on it.
Braves RHP Roman Colon
Strengths: Colon didn't truly blossom until last season at Triple-A when the Braves moved him full-time to the bullpen. He has a sharp slider, a sinking fastball, and a splitter that gets strikeouts. Colon is just the kind of young pitcher who has thrived when brought to Atlanta.
Weaknesses: Since Colon rarely walks anyone and keeps the ball down, he puts a lot of balls into play. Backed by quality defensive infielders, Colon could be successful, though he does tend to give up a very high total of unearned runs. It would be a surprise if Colon's future isn't limited to relief work.
Comparison: Many successful relievers are converted starters. Danny Kolb, ahead of Colon in the Braves bullpen, is also a sinkerballing reliever, but without Colon's potential for punchouts. Akinori Otsuka of San Diego, an effective setup pitcher with a sinker/slider/split arsenal, is more comparable.
Brewers LHP Jorge de la Rosa
Strengths: De la Rosa converted to starting three years ago; he was much more effective in 2004 after a stint on the disabled list mandated by a sore shoulder. A strikeout pitcher with a moving fastball in the low to mid 90s, de la Rosa has mountains of potential.
Weaknesses: De la Rosa has struggled at times with his command of his fastball and still must be considered a thrower rather than a pitcher. Shoulder injuries are a warning sign for any pitcher, and de la Rosa has never even thrown as many as 140 innings in a season.
Comparison: The Brewers believe that his velocity is better than that of Teddy Higuera at a comparable age, but De La Rosa needs better control to attain comparable success. He has also been compared to the infamous John Rocker, another lefty with good stuff and questionable makeup.
A's RHP Danny Haren
Strengths: Haren has matured into a promising ground-ball pitcher. Using a moving sinker and a darting slider, he comes at hitters aggressively from a high three-quarters delivery. A plus competitor, Haren challenges hitters and is stingy with walks. The A's fully expect him to be an effective mid-rotation starter for several years, and he's moving into a pitcher's park.
Weaknesses: Haren won't blow anyone away; his fastball isn't a strikeout pitch, although he's improving his ability to close out hitters with the slider. His delivery doesn't have much deception, and Haren, like most pitchers lacking outstanding velocity, can be taken deep when he makes mistakes. His changeup is still developing, although it is expected to eventually rate above average.
Comparison: The Athletics hope that Haren's sinker, slider, and change will bring him to the level of Carl Pavano, a similar three-pitch righty starter with fine stuff and control.
Giants RHP Matt Cain
Strengths: Cain's reputation as a top prospect precedes him; he isn't going to sneak up on anyone. He features a low-to-mid 90s sinker, a hard slider, an above-par curve, and a changeup that has improved significantly. Cain doesn't allow many home runs and has a good, strong build. He clearly has No. 1 starter stuff, as well as poise and intelligence.
Weaknesses: Cain missed time in 2003 due to a stress fracture in his pitching elbow. He struggled some with his control after being promoted to Double-A last season, typical of a pitcher with his youth and inexperience.
Comparison: The Giants would be thrilled if Cain's career were to track the path of John Smoltz, who blossomed at age 22 into a dominating pitcher with power stuff and several plus pitches.
Phillies RHP Gavin Floyd
Strengths: Floyd has one of the best curves in baseball, a pitch that breaks straight downward (called a "12-6 break"). Floyd also has improved his changeup and potentially could be an excellent starter.
Weaknesses: The curve is by far his best pitch. Floyd doesn't throw that hard, settling in comfortably with the fastball at around 90. His command is sometimes inconsistent, and he may have been rushed to the majors to his detriment.
Comparison: Barry Zito may be the closest comparison, even though he's a southpaw. Zito lacks big velocity but has excellent movement on his curve, fastball, and change. If Floyd improves his command to the level of Zito's, he'll be a winner and a fixture in the Phillies rotation for years to come.
Gary Gillette is the editor of the 2005 ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, which was published in March by Sterling. Click here to order a copy. Gary can be reached via e-mail at GGillette@247Baseball.com.
