hno: 
I have an even better one for you Fish. I'll guarantee you've never heard of anything like this unless you experienced this yourself at Bodog:
Typical phone call at Bodog when trying to bet over the limit:
Me: I'd like to get Game #XXX for $1000. I know the limit is $500, can I get more on the game?
Bodog: One moment sir {about a minute passes}. Sir, I spoke to the lines manager. He said you could have $500 on the original line of -125 and an additional $500 on a line of -135. Would you like to do that?
Me: No, just let me have $500 at -125
Now, if the above happened to you then you would expect the line to go to -135 after you bet the limit $500 right? Cause what the linesman was really saying was "OK we'll take $500 at -125, but then we're going to move the line to -135 to encourage action on the other side." That sounds very reasonable to me, but you'd be dead wrong in assuming that LOL.
I go to check the line online and what do I find? Still -125. Check it an hour later, still -125 LOL. WTF? It's not that they actually wanted to move the line after they let me have $500, they just want me to pay the extra juice if I want to bet more than $500. Anyone else with an acct can get -125 all day long.
That is some crazy ****
And it happened every single time I tried to bet over the limit.......
Typical phone call at Bodog when trying to bet over the limit:
Me: I'd like to get Game #XXX for $1000. I know the limit is $500, can I get more on the game?
Bodog: One moment sir {about a minute passes}. Sir, I spoke to the lines manager. He said you could have $500 on the original line of -125 and an additional $500 on a line of -135. Would you like to do that?
Me: No, just let me have $500 at -125
Now, if the above happened to you then you would expect the line to go to -135 after you bet the limit $500 right? Cause what the linesman was really saying was "OK we'll take $500 at -125, but then we're going to move the line to -135 to encourage action on the other side." That sounds very reasonable to me, but you'd be dead wrong in assuming that LOL.
I go to check the line online and what do I find? Still -125. Check it an hour later, still -125 LOL. WTF? It's not that they actually wanted to move the line after they let me have $500, they just want me to pay the extra juice if I want to bet more than $500. Anyone else with an acct can get -125 all day long.
That is some crazy ****
And it happened every single time I tried to bet over the limit.......
the only chance you ever have with a book to get down that much action on a number is if the sportsbook is betting into the action also...I ran the #9 sportsbook for 3 years and we took that type of action $50dimes but the only time you ever want to bet with a book like that is if they are bettors themselves and in that case they will lay off or play the number accordingly.....
there is no book in the world that can continue to survive taking that much action and trying to balance the other side....when a bettor is betting that much with a book the book is at a terrible disadvantage...
there is no book in the world that can continue to survive taking that much action and trying to balance the other side....when a bettor is betting that much with a book the book is at a terrible disadvantage...
Fishhead said:
What would happen if they DID move the number on a limit wager?
Let's say we have Team A at -2 playing Team B
A guy takes Team A -2 for the limit, you raise it to -2.5
The next guy takes Team B +2.5 for the limit, so you drop it to -2
So all day, you would be taking wagers of Team A -2 and Team B +2.5. The bottom line is you would be screwed if it fell on 2 ... and that would occur maybe one out of every 25 games.
Now, increasing the vig is one thing but to change the number itself is NOT good practice at all.
I like to think of a vig adjustment as a "sale" on the other side. A guy puts down $1,100 to win $1,000 on Team A -2, so you put Team B "on sale" at -105 or +100.
So then you ask why change the number at all? Why not just play with the vig? Believe me, books would do just that if they could. If they books could form a syndicate and make ONE GOLDEN rule, it would be to never change the number at all and only change the vig. That is what they do in baseball and that is why they can afford to give dime lines in baseball - there is no chance of getting middled.
Fishhead said:
Fishhead,
You're talking from a gamblers perspective but think of it as a bookie. As much as you are used to playing sides at -110, the bookies are used to playing NOTHING at +110.
To think like a bookie, the question is whether you would rather
(a) scalp something at a reasonable rate (+110 on both sides) for a small amount
(b) scalp something for a larger amount and risk getting sided?
Most books choose A, and that is why they don't change the number. They do change the vig and that might prevent them from balancing the action and and it could decrease the volume, but they cannot subject themsleves to the risk of getting sided.
