Of course one needs to be LUCKY to win TOURNAMENTS, but SKILL is the longterm overriding factor between good and bad players and who gets the most dough.
That fact should not even be debatable.
Obviously if two playeres are ABSOLUTELY IDENTICAL in skill level(which would be rare), LUCK would be the main element on who comes out on top in the longterm.
-F-
That fact should not even be debatable.
Obviously if two playeres are ABSOLUTELY IDENTICAL in skill level(which would be rare), LUCK would be the main element on who comes out on top in the longterm.
-F-
Players who are at a comperable skill level in regards to knowing which hands to play may not show the same average hourly rate over the long term. The differentiating factor is knowing how to maximize profits on winning hands and minimize exposure on losing hands. This is true in limit games but especially important in NL.
The difference between a typical newbie and a solid player is huge.
A famous pro does better than other solid players mainly because of the intimidation factor IMO. Players who are otherwise solid just bow out of pots against them on their own for some reason. Must be some Darwinian thing, who knows?
But if you are a solid player and have confidence in your abilities, ie. you don't let yourself get intimidated by anyone, then you stand a decent chance even against God, and so against any other solid player like that the game is mainly luck IMO.
I've played against Hellmuth, Negreanu, Dan Harrington and also Ron Stanley (heads up NLH) plus a bunch of other well-known names before, and none of them were particularly scary. Negreanu was actually on tilt and dumped his chips pretty quickly (but not to me unfortunately).
A famous pro does better than other solid players mainly because of the intimidation factor IMO. Players who are otherwise solid just bow out of pots against them on their own for some reason. Must be some Darwinian thing, who knows?
But if you are a solid player and have confidence in your abilities, ie. you don't let yourself get intimidated by anyone, then you stand a decent chance even against God, and so against any other solid player like that the game is mainly luck IMO.
I've played against Hellmuth, Negreanu, Dan Harrington and also Ron Stanley (heads up NLH) plus a bunch of other well-known names before, and none of them were particularly scary. Negreanu was actually on tilt and dumped his chips pretty quickly (but not to me unfortunately).
i have been getting my head kicked in on the tables the past 2 days.. im not the greatest player and im not the worst... but my beats these past 2 days have been freaking horrific
I went all in on Ks-Kc in a NL tourney (3500 chip bet) I get called by this jackass with 6k in chips with 4d-8h 2 hearts come on the flop then runner runner hearts
I slammed my laptop shut...im lucky I didnt break it.
also, 2 other all in plays with pocket aces pre flops, each time I lost to a smaller pocket pair
I went all in on Ks-Kc in a NL tourney (3500 chip bet) I get called by this jackass with 6k in chips with 4d-8h 2 hearts come on the flop then runner runner hearts
I slammed my laptop shut...im lucky I didnt break it.
also, 2 other all in plays with pocket aces pre flops, each time I lost to a smaller pocket pair
I'd say the generals correct as to playing any 1 hand. even doyle brunson couldnt make a newbie throw away 4 aces but over time if the newbie had 4 9's lets say, doyle might could intimidate him enough to make the newbie think he's beat....but online? the only thing you have to intimidate with is the size of your stack and the size of your bets..and to a lot of new players those dont mean much either if they have an ace...they going to call anything cus after all an ace beats anything right???:drink: and then again tell me how you do anything regardless of skill in this hand....and before you call me an idiot this was a freeroll or i would have played it quite different...still woulda lost though...lol
Game No : 1962705622
***** Hand History for Game 1962705622 *****
NL Hold'em Trny:11696315 Level:1 Blinds (10/15) - Wednesday, April 27, 19:12:29 EDT 2005
Table $2,500 Players Club Freeroll(318516) Table #73 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: filliest ( $700 )
Seat 2: rtoki ( $1000 )
Seat 3: jenjen00 ( $1310 )
Seat 4: shadyjade ( $1000 )
Seat 5: RRR11 ( $970 )
Seat 6: elway7j ( $1000 )
Seat 7: slevie6969 ( $1000 )
Seat 8: fish1820 ( $1070 )
Seat 9: PPP ( $990 )
Seat 10: Silence4ever ( $960 )
Trny:11696315 Level:1
Blinds (10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PPP [ Ac Kc ]
jenjen00 calls [15].
shadyjade folds.
RRR11 calls [15].
elway7j folds.
slevie6969 folds.
fish1820 folds.
PPP calls [15].
Silence4ever calls [15].
filliest calls [5].
rtoki checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ad, 9d, 7h ]
filliest bets [60].
rtoki calls [60].
jenjen00 calls [60].
RRR11 calls [60].
PPP is all-In [975]
Silence4ever is all-In [945]
filliest is all-In [625]
rtoki is all-In [925]
jenjen00 calls [925].
RRR11 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
** Dealing River ** [ Jh ]
filliest shows [ Tc, Ah ] a pair of aces.
rtoki shows [ 9c, 7c ] two pairs, nines and sevens.
jenjen00 shows [ Qd, 7d ] a pair of sevens.
PPP shows [ Ac, Kc ] a pair of aces.
Silence4ever shows [ 8s, 6d ] a straight, five to nine.
rtoki wins 20 chips from side pot #3 with two pairs, nines and sevens.
rtoki wins 90 chips from side pot #2 with two pairs, nines and sevens.
Silence4ever wins 1040 chips from side pot #1 with a straight, five to nine.
Silence4ever wins 3575 chips from the main pot with a straight, five to nine.
Player filliest finished in 1519 place
Player PPP finished in 1518 place
Game No : 1962705622
***** Hand History for Game 1962705622 *****
NL Hold'em Trny:11696315 Level:1 Blinds (10/15) - Wednesday, April 27, 19:12:29 EDT 2005
Table $2,500 Players Club Freeroll(318516) Table #73 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: filliest ( $700 )
Seat 2: rtoki ( $1000 )
Seat 3: jenjen00 ( $1310 )
Seat 4: shadyjade ( $1000 )
Seat 5: RRR11 ( $970 )
Seat 6: elway7j ( $1000 )
Seat 7: slevie6969 ( $1000 )
Seat 8: fish1820 ( $1070 )
Seat 9: PPP ( $990 )
Seat 10: Silence4ever ( $960 )
Trny:11696315 Level:1
Blinds (10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PPP [ Ac Kc ]
jenjen00 calls [15].
shadyjade folds.
RRR11 calls [15].
elway7j folds.
slevie6969 folds.
fish1820 folds.
PPP calls [15].
Silence4ever calls [15].
filliest calls [5].
rtoki checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ad, 9d, 7h ]
filliest bets [60].
rtoki calls [60].
jenjen00 calls [60].
RRR11 calls [60].
PPP is all-In [975]
Silence4ever is all-In [945]
filliest is all-In [625]
rtoki is all-In [925]
jenjen00 calls [925].
RRR11 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
** Dealing River ** [ Jh ]
filliest shows [ Tc, Ah ] a pair of aces.
rtoki shows [ 9c, 7c ] two pairs, nines and sevens.
jenjen00 shows [ Qd, 7d ] a pair of sevens.
PPP shows [ Ac, Kc ] a pair of aces.
Silence4ever shows [ 8s, 6d ] a straight, five to nine.
rtoki wins 20 chips from side pot #3 with two pairs, nines and sevens.
rtoki wins 90 chips from side pot #2 with two pairs, nines and sevens.
Silence4ever wins 1040 chips from side pot #1 with a straight, five to nine.
Silence4ever wins 3575 chips from the main pot with a straight, five to nine.
Player filliest finished in 1519 place
Player PPP finished in 1518 place
Luck evens out over the long run. If you play 8-10 hours a day everyday, and keep track, the bad beats will eventually pan out. But for every bad beat you are expected to get more than an equal amount of bad calls that win for you. The basic secret is to not have a table full of guys that will chase you down. 2-3 at a 10 chair table is the max, and 3 is pushing it if they have enough chips to hurt you, but not enough worth winning.The thing about tv is that it is a tounry setting, and often a lot easier to throw chips around, even if the prize money is huge. Because uually these guys have been sitting and pitching cards for days, and they are tired, bired, have a reputation, whatever. Totally different than in live games with real money in frot of them.
I have sat at tables in both situations, tournies and live, with a lot of pro players. The truly good ones have the ability to switch their games form live to tourney, and from hand to hand.
Ultimately you need the cards, or the money. It is a lot easier to bluff witha stack size equal to or greater than ANYONE, than it is to try and make a move on someone who you can't hurt. This obviosly helps if you have the nuts, but if you turn the nuts over all night, you won't get a lot of calls. This will allow some bluffing for sure, but you have to pray the other guy doesn't have the goods when you try it.
Poker isn't all that disimilar than sports betting actually. The best way to do it is to grind it out, take your wins and losses in stride and don't get too emotional.
I have seen guy win tournies and be broke within months if not weeks. I have seen some pro buy into tournies 15-30 times and these are 1K to 5K buy in tournies. If they do not make the money they are out some change. Sure the prize pools are huge, but These guys do this every single week, sometimes twice a week. Doesn't take a lot of no money finishes to eat up one nice win.
A lot of people miss that too. Just like the guy that hits a huge parlay and has more money than he has ever seen in his life. He might piss that all away in a month or two.
Success is actually the worst thing for gamblers to attain, unless they have the correct mentality to handle it.
But I love poker, it is defiantely a nice addition to sports, but is a lot like work, and is very hard to play in the summer now that bases has started. You just can't play all the time and stil monitor baseball lines and moves. And you just can't run to a cassino for a quick hit and hope to be serious about it. If you want to gamble,m then sure it is OK, but like anything else, to be successful you need patience and information.
This is of course aimed at NL or PL games and surely not limit games where you can have someone else play for you. Just give them a rack of chips, have them play every hand and hope they win more than they lose, that is basicaly what everyone else does. As long as you have a single out keep calling.
I have sat at tables in both situations, tournies and live, with a lot of pro players. The truly good ones have the ability to switch their games form live to tourney, and from hand to hand.
Ultimately you need the cards, or the money. It is a lot easier to bluff witha stack size equal to or greater than ANYONE, than it is to try and make a move on someone who you can't hurt. This obviosly helps if you have the nuts, but if you turn the nuts over all night, you won't get a lot of calls. This will allow some bluffing for sure, but you have to pray the other guy doesn't have the goods when you try it.
Poker isn't all that disimilar than sports betting actually. The best way to do it is to grind it out, take your wins and losses in stride and don't get too emotional.
I have seen guy win tournies and be broke within months if not weeks. I have seen some pro buy into tournies 15-30 times and these are 1K to 5K buy in tournies. If they do not make the money they are out some change. Sure the prize pools are huge, but These guys do this every single week, sometimes twice a week. Doesn't take a lot of no money finishes to eat up one nice win.
A lot of people miss that too. Just like the guy that hits a huge parlay and has more money than he has ever seen in his life. He might piss that all away in a month or two.
Success is actually the worst thing for gamblers to attain, unless they have the correct mentality to handle it.
But I love poker, it is defiantely a nice addition to sports, but is a lot like work, and is very hard to play in the summer now that bases has started. You just can't play all the time and stil monitor baseball lines and moves. And you just can't run to a cassino for a quick hit and hope to be serious about it. If you want to gamble,m then sure it is OK, but like anything else, to be successful you need patience and information.
This is of course aimed at NL or PL games and surely not limit games where you can have someone else play for you. Just give them a rack of chips, have them play every hand and hope they win more than they lose, that is basicaly what everyone else does. As long as you have a single out keep calling.
You dont always ned cards. If you are playing with guys with enough brains to fold a winning habd, then you can win without cards, as long as you have enough chips to do it.
I would call a guy if I thought he had a royal if he didn't have enough chips to hurt me, just to see what he is playing.
But I wouldn't call a guy if I put him on 5 high if he has 3 times the chips I did and knew he was going all in the next hand, unless I had the nuts or close to it. It just isn't worth it. Sooner or later they all make mistakes, and that is when you get them. You just can't make the mistake before them.
I would call a guy if I thought he had a royal if he didn't have enough chips to hurt me, just to see what he is playing.
But I wouldn't call a guy if I put him on 5 high if he has 3 times the chips I did and knew he was going all in the next hand, unless I had the nuts or close to it. It just isn't worth it. Sooner or later they all make mistakes, and that is when you get them. You just can't make the mistake before them.
By its nature, no-limit holdem is a short-term game. Whether you are playing in a tournament or have bought into a cash game, in a matter of a few hours you have either quit a winner or quit a loser. Over the short term a run of good cards (or bad ones) can determine the outcome for you regardless of your skill.
I guess that's why more pros play limit.
I guess that's why more pros play limit.
in live action cash games, you definitely need alot of skill and discipline if you plan to play for the long run...
but in the nl tourneys (especially on the net), there is absolutely no skill involved...i'd say 99% of the players don't read hands...once the tournament reaches its halfway point, there's alot of allins preflop...i'd like to see a tournament where the it's structured preflop and on the flop,pot-limit on the turn, and no limit on the river...make the players decide on the river what their opponent has...that's the only way to test true poker skills...
but in the nl tourneys (especially on the net), there is absolutely no skill involved...i'd say 99% of the players don't read hands...once the tournament reaches its halfway point, there's alot of allins preflop...i'd like to see a tournament where the it's structured preflop and on the flop,pot-limit on the turn, and no limit on the river...make the players decide on the river what their opponent has...that's the only way to test true poker skills...
Poker is a game of skill AND luck. In any game, NL in particular, a lucky player can accumulate a lot of money in a short period of time.
IMO, to win any one tournament requires a large amount of luck.
1) You could have a bad draw at a table so your competition could be more difficult than someone else's.
2) You need to get cards in order to not get blinded out.
The interesting thing about NL and luck is that it would seem to me that while the cards may even out over the long run, the pot sizes may not so you could end up on the losing side of the equation. In that case it would seem that you need to be lucky a bit in terms of your bet/pot sizes.
This last one I need to think about a bit more since I think it is a bit different in limit since the bet/pot sizes are very similar.
IMO, to win any one tournament requires a large amount of luck.
1) You could have a bad draw at a table so your competition could be more difficult than someone else's.
2) You need to get cards in order to not get blinded out.
The interesting thing about NL and luck is that it would seem to me that while the cards may even out over the long run, the pot sizes may not so you could end up on the losing side of the equation. In that case it would seem that you need to be lucky a bit in terms of your bet/pot sizes.
This last one I need to think about a bit more since I think it is a bit different in limit since the bet/pot sizes are very similar.
If somebody else gets good cards or wins, then they are lucky. If you get bad cards and lose, then you had bad luck and got bad cards, but smart card players have a short memory after a bad beat..
Everybody knows what is good and bad.
It is not the cards you get , it is how you play them. To me it is that simple.
Any idiot can bet like hell when he has bullets or big slick and theoretically win the hand
I have gotten a long run of bad cards, like everyone else, but to me this is where you seperate yourself from the rest by either folding agrressively and minimizing your losses, or bluffing like hell which you set up before.
It's the crappy hands that make the difference in your bankroll
Everybody knows what is good and bad.
It is not the cards you get , it is how you play them. To me it is that simple.
Any idiot can bet like hell when he has bullets or big slick and theoretically win the hand
I have gotten a long run of bad cards, like everyone else, but to me this is where you seperate yourself from the rest by either folding agrressively and minimizing your losses, or bluffing like hell which you set up before.
It's the crappy hands that make the difference in your bankroll
