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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+2.48 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">30</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">44</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-11.84 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2005)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">30</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">44</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-11.84 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Toronto +1.57 over NY YANKEES (1:05 PM)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
Talk about paying a ridiculous premium to wager on the Yankees and one need not look further than this game. In fact, if you put a different uniform on the Yanks today this game would be a pick-em. New York will send rookie Chien-Ming Wang to the hill to make his major league debut. Wang is one of the top pitching prospects in the Yanks system, however, that system is about the thinnest in the business and it’s not saying much at all. Wang had a 2-0 record in four starts and a 4.15 ERA at Triple AAA Columbus before the call-up. He’s got some decent credentials that include being the recipient of the Kevin Lawn "Pitcher of the Year" Award, honoring the Yankees' top Minor League Pitcher. He was named Eastern League "Pitcher of the Week" from 4/19-25, going 1-0 with a 0.69ERA in two starts and was promoted to Columbus on July 26 and suffered the loss that day in his Triple-A debut at Richmond but then won each of his other five games (four starts) going 5-0 with a 1.05 ERA. That’s all very nice and it’s impressive too but this is the major’s and this is Yankee Stadium and Wang has never faced a major league batter before. To make him 1.65 favorite is completely insane and regardless of the outcome the Blue Jays have got to be considered great value. They’ve won three in a row and beat The Big Unit last night with Roy Halliday on the mound. We know David Bush is no Roy Halliday but Ming Wang is no Randy Johnson either. Play: Toronto +1.57 (Risking 1.5 units). <o:p></o:p>

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Seattle +1.00 over OAKLAND (4:05 PM)<o:p></o:p>

Every once in awhile the A’s will break out with six or more runs, however, on most days they’ll score two or three or less and that makes wagering against them as the chalk a solid investment. Over its past five games, Oakland has scored two runs or fewer in four of them. Rookie Joe Blanton has been brilliant for the A’s and all of his four starts have been of the quality variety. His 0-2 record in four starts is completely unjust as he leads the majors with a 1.75 ERA. He’s pitched well enough to be 4-0. Having said that, it’s the same old story here for the A’s. They’ll be going up against a solid veteran lefthander in Jamie Moyer and the Mariners bullpen has been the best the league has to offer. Seattle is the superior team in every faucet of the game and three runs will likely be good enough to cash our ticket. That’s a gamble worth taking on any day and we make no exception here. Play: Seattle +1.00 (Risking 1.5 units).<o:p></o:p>

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L.A. Angels +1.02 over MINNESOTA<o:p></o:p>

Brad Radke throws strikes and seldom walks a batter, ever. However, he gives up a ton of hits and continues to give up runs in bunches. Radke had a good year last year as far as his ERA was concerned but in his previous three years his ERA was up near five and this year it’s over five. He’s allowed seven jacks, 39 hits, and 19 earned runs in just 33 innings. Brad Radke has been the major’s most over-rated pitcher for years. Kelvim Excobar, when on his game, is among the best starters in the league. He missed the beginning of the year because of a strained right elbow and returned to make his season debut against the A’s. He dazzled the A’s with two-hit ball over six innings and was credited with the win as the Angels won 1-0. We’re not going to put too much emphasis on dazzling the A’s, everybody has done that, what we’re suggesting is that Radke is average at best and is very hittable indeed. The Angels have a great offense and we’d be shocked if at least two players didn’t go yard today. Radke favored over any good team and pitcher is a losing proposition over time. Play L.A. Angels +1.02 (Risking 1.5 units). <o:p></o:p>

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Detroit +1.17 over CHICAGO (4:05 PM)<o:p></o:p>

Jason Johnson has one horrible start and three quality one’s to his credit this year and that’s good enough for us to pay attention. He didn’t make it out of the first inning against the Twins and that’s inflated his ERA, however, in his three other starts he’s pitched well into the seventh inning. Jason Johnson has excellent stuff and the White Sox are struggling to score runs, not a bad combination for us. Orlando Hernandez has a 2.35 ERA, however, the opposition is hitting .298 against him. He’s stranded a ton of baserunners thus far but that will eventually catch up to him. In fact, in just 23 innings of work covering four starts Hernandez has allowed 40 batters to reach base but just nine of them have scored. He’s a big inning waiting to happen and this could be the day. Lastly, the Tigers have won five in a row and the White Sox have dropped three straight. Sounds like a fair wager to us. Play Detroit +1.17 (Risking 1.5 units).<o:p></o:p>

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San Francisco +1.00 over PITTSBURGH (7:05 PM)<o:p></o:p>

Not interested in the Giants as the chalk but are less interested in the Pirates in the same position. Furthermore, the Giants are lukewarm with three wins in a row and will face a punchless offense here. A complete game four-hitter by Brett Tomko last night is all the evidence we need to verify just how inept this Pirate offense has been. The Giants scored 10 times last night and they’ve been much better against lefties all year and will face one here in David Williams. Williams is off to a good start, however, he’s in his third year and is making just $330.000 and in this day and age that doesn’t say much about his ability for a third year guy. Noah Lowry will toss for the Giants and he comes in with a somewhat misleading 5.09 ERA. He was roughed up in Colorado for six runs in five innings but has pitched very well in two of his other three starts. Not having to lay anything against the Pirates works for us. Play: San Francisco +1.00 (Risking 1.5 units).
 

New member
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Sep 21, 2004
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Sherwood,

First, let me thank you for the wonderful write-ups you provide to this forum day in and day out. Your contributions are well appreciated.

That being said, please don't take this the wrong way for what I am about to say.

Given your YTD record this year in the bases, do you think it is possible that you are over-analyzing these games too much?

Just curious as to what you think.

Take care and best of luck to you today and throughout the season!

Chalk
 

Call me Calos
Joined
Dec 1, 2004
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I love three of your plays, Tor, Sea, and SF. I'll be on them. I like your write up on yankee pitcher. He should get roughed up today. I was reading about how excited he is to be pitching for the Yanks and that his favorite player is Jeter. I think he gets caught up in the atmosphere and gets pulled early. I may be wrong. Good luck!
 

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Joined
Mar 31, 2005
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i like your style and analysis sherwood. the only 2 suggestions i have is avoid kc like the plague. they really are THAT bad. the other is avoid going against a heavy duty pitcher if the dog pitcher is a crapper.


i see a 4-1 or 5-0 day for you today. go dogs


:103631605
 

Member
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Sep 21, 2004
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Chalk:
Thanks for the kind words and to answer your question, no, I don't think I over analyze the games. It's very early in the season and I'm not about to allow one month to impact something I've had success for over 12 FULL years.

At the end of the year, if I'm in the red, I'll reconsider but its only been a lousy month and just two or three good days in a row will have me very close to even or better.

By years end, I trust that I'll be in the black again....wait and see.
 

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