Question for BOXING WISEGUYS

Fishhead · May 3, 2005

How much is ONE round worth on the moneyline(cents).

What would one need to gain an advantage if scalping/middling round props?

For example, is the following a longterm positive expectation win?...........again, be the answer yes or no, what is the cutoff for TOTAL CENTS RISKED to make it a positive play? (In the below example, the TOTAL CENTS RISKED is 15 cents)

SPORTSBOOK A---OVER 9.5 -140

SPORTSBOOK B---UNDER 10.5 +125

Also, would imagine the lower the ROUND LINE NUMBER(in this example TEN), the more cents one would be able to risk?

SportSavant · May 3, 2005

12 round fight.....

36 minutes of boxing....

your example allows for a 3 minute window.....

you have got 8.4% of the ACTUAL boxing time for you to hit your middle....

Also should factor in of course that fight is more likely to end in the round predicted....

so I would say its got about a 10-15% shot (probably closer to 10%)

honestabe · May 3, 2005

i like your reply SportSavant, but shouldn't the possibility of a decision be included as well?
so with whatever % of fights going to a decision, a result in each individual round becomes less likely.

Fishhead · May 3, 2005

honest abe said:
i like your reply SportSavant, but shouldn't the possibility of a decision be included as well?
so with whatever % of fights going to a decision, a result in each individual round becomes less likely.

Excellent point!

Obviously though, the round to go over/under would be higher.........say over 10.5 rather than 5.5 rounds.

-F-

ps- Still would like to know what one full round is worth on the moneyline(8.5 vs 9.5 for example). I reckon BetOdessaa must know this answer.

valdosta · May 3, 2005

....

I'll make sure he gets a look at this thread. My opinion is a little different than simple math. I think it simply depends on the fighters. Some guys are agressive and wear there opponents down for a late stoppage. 1 round is worth a lot in those types of fights. Some guys box looking just to win a decision though and in those cases it really don't matter. What are you looking at Fishead?

Fishhead · May 3, 2005

valdosta said:
I'll make sure he gets a look at this thread. My opinion is a little different than simple math. I think it simply depends on the fighters. Some guys are agressive and wear there opponents down for a late stoppage. 1 round is worth a lot in those types of fights. Some guys box looking just to win a decision though and in those cases it really don't matter. What are you looking at Fishead?

Not looking at anything in particular, just a simple inquiry is all.

Thanks,
-F-

valdosta · May 3, 2005

....

I IM'ed Odessa this thread if he wants to reply when he is around later. I think it just all depends on the fight. Braithwaite-Mormeck had a HUGE difference for 1 round while Margarito-Cintron didn't.

Fishhead · May 3, 2005

valdosta said:
I IM'ed Odessa this thread if he wants to reply when he is around later. I think it just all depends on the fight. Braithwaite-Mormeck had a HUGE difference for 1 round while Margarito-Cintron didn't.

Thanks, looking forward to his reply on the subject.

-F-

Fishhead · May 3, 2005

?~?~?~?~

JOddessa · May 3, 2005

I think it simply depends on the fighters. Some guys are agressive and wear there opponents down for a late stoppage.

I agree with what Valdosta said. I have a computer program that breaks down the total on bouts. I go over these with Val from time to time, especially if if makes a play jump off the page at me. Problem is, it cant count in all the intangibles.

While its great with OVER plays, it often creates a high minus numbers on a bout to NOT go the distance. For example the Pacman vs Morales fight. Looked like a stone cold under, when in fact Morales had never been on canvas and has a great chin. I dont recall the # but it screamed UNDER.

I think a round may generally be worth a bit more as you up in weight (Middleweights to Heavyweights), but I dont think there is any accurate % or number that can be placed on a round.

Every fighter, fight, ring, is different. And then there are bouts where guys just fight to survive. The late rounds in some bouts can be worth more while in others, much less.

Tyson Round 1-6 each round would be worth alot more than rounds 7-10.

Then think about how many bouts you can recall that ended in the 'championship' rounds.' Moorer/Foreman, Chavez/Taylor, Freitas/Barrios, Ruiz/Oquendo. I can recall because most were bad beats. If it goes 10, its likely to go 12 so the difference between 10 and 12 would be less than 7-9 from a statistical standpoint.

Many guys and corners look to not take chances and coast to a win on the cards.

But at the same time an opponent may or may not be known for giving 110% every round. Arturo Gatti wouldn't be a guy that I would expect to just accept defeat and look to finish the last 2 rounds without looking for a KO. While another guy maybe receiving his 1st 6 figure payday, felt he has shown up, done enough, and wants to live for another payday, by going the distance with a great fighter.

Anyway, IMO there is no definite answer to the question. Every fighter is different. Too many variables.

Sorry 4 the late response, just walked in the door.

Fishhead · May 4, 2005

Each and every fight where there is a round prop, there has to be an answer to what a round is worth on the moneyline.

I understand how the different weight classes can pose a difference.

If the initial post in my thread represented a HWT bout, what is the round worth?

Say TONEY vs RUIZ for example

THANKS,
-F-

Fishhead · May 4, 2005

Anybody else care to take a shot at my opening question in this thread.

Approximently/guess if nothing else.

Thanks,
-F-

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