Bellamy Road is simply the best

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Bob's Sports Show
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Friday, May 06 2005

Bellamy Road is simply the best

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WASHINGTON - Most racing fans spend many hours studying the horses in the Kentucky Derby, but they can make the mistake of analyzing the race too much. Over the years I have often been guilty of this error, failing to pick standout winners such as Secretariat, Affirmed, and Seattle Slew. It is easy to become obsessed by nuances and lose sight of the big question: Is there a horse in the field with such superior talent that the nuances are irrelevant? That may indeed be the case in the 131st Derby. Bellamy Road could very well be in a class by himself.

Owner George Steinbrenner's colt has raced twice this year, winning an allowance race at Gulfstream Park by nearly 16 lengths and the Wood Memorial Stakes by 17 1/2. In the latter he equaled a 32-year-old track record at Aqueduct and earned a stratospheric Beyer Speed Figure of 120, the best ever recorded in a prep race for the Derby.

This one performance suggested that Bellamy Road might be another Secretariat, Affirmed, or Seattle Slew. Yet skeptics doubt that he will run a similarly powerful race on Saturday, and they raise several legitimate questions about him:

* Does he have enough preparation? Bellamy Road has raced five times in his career, and only twice as a 3-year-old. History says this is not sufficient. Only one horse since 1947 has won the Derby with just two preps. However, most of his main rivals have had light regimens as well, so Bellamy Road is not at a significant disadvantage against them.

* Will he bounce? Many handicappers believe that a horse who delivers an extraordinary effort - as Bellamy Road did in the Wood - will regress sharply in his next race. But it is common for 3-year-olds to improve suddenly in spring and continue to improve. In recent years, both War Emblem (2002) and Charismatic (1999) came to life with an unexpected, fast victory in April. Instead of bouncing, both went on to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown series.

* Can Bellamy Road run effectively if he doesn't have the early lead? Handicappers regularly encounter horses that run big races when they go to the front unchallenged but falter when they are subjected to tough early pressure. It is almost axiomatic to bet against such horses when they face fields where they can't make the lead.

Bellamy Road's three wins in distance races were front-running efforts; he suffered his only defeat as a 2-year-old after a head-and-head battle. And he won't make the lead in the Derby against speedsters such as Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild.

In an ordinary year, I would be inclined to take a stand against a front-running favorite facing the prospect of intense pressure in the first half mile. But this is not an ordinary, wide-open Derby. Even if other horses do get an ideal setup from a fast pace, most of them aren't talented enough to take advantage of their good fortune.

Speed figures have pointed out the winners of most recent Derbies, and they have been a very potent tool is distinguishing the contenders from the non-contenders. A useful rule of thumb is that a horse should have earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 or higher at least once before the Derby. In the 13 Derbies since the ratings have been published in Daily Racing Form, only 73 horses have met this standard and 11 have won. Horses who failed to run a 105 before the first Saturday in May had a combined Derby record of 2 for 151.

In most years, the Derby contenders' speed figures are closely bunched, but in Saturday's field there are huge gaps separating them. Besides Bellamy Road, with his towering 120, only three horses reached the 105 benchmark: Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby (108), Greeley's Galaxy in the Illinois Derby (106), and High Limit in the Louisiana Derby (105). Other entrants who are considered strong contenders have never run fast - such as Bandini, the runaway winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, and High Fly, the Florida Derby victor. Indeed, more than half the field has never earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, and it is hard to imagine them improving enough to win.

If Bellamy Road were foiled by a too-fast battle for the early lead, the Derby winner would almost certainly be a horse who could come from off the pace and finish strong. Afleet Alex is the most likely candidate. He drew away from his rivals in the stretch to win the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths. Moreover, he has a classic profile for a Derby horse, including a good 2-year-old campaign and a second-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Bellamy Road's stablemate Sun King also has an outside chance to spring an upset. He gave a poor showing in the recent Blue Grass, but there is a long history of Blue Grass flops doing well in the Derby. Before that setback Sun King earned a speed figure of 104 and had previously laid a solid foundation at 2.

But neither Afleet Alex, Sun King, nor anybody else is going to win the Derby if Bellamy Road approximates his best form. I believe he will, and I believe he has such an advantage in raw talent that he can overcome adversity and still win. I may have overlooked Secretariat, but I'm not going to overlook a potential superstar this time.

I thought I'd drop this news off good luck with the derby:party:
 

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he has a huge shot at winning if he gets out of that 16 gate good
 

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I also think Bellamy Road wins the Derby.

It will be a great interview with Steinbrenner after the race.

George how does it feel to have the derby winner and your team in Last place on the same date?
 

Smells like victory!
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is everybody and Slim's brother on Bellamy Rd. Coming off now @ 5-2. Can only imagine the odds @ post time

Good luck to all

should be fun as hell with a 20 horse field and hopefully some longshot possibilities

I just can't root for anything Steinbrenner related
 

Bob's Sports Show
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He's been keeping quite and I thinks its for a reason.Stienbrenner is definatly addicted to the media and spot light, why so quite ?, I hate to be the yankees if his horse loses lol .
 

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i believe george's bad luck is going to continue. this horse might go off at even money in a 20 horse field. too many things can happen in such a large field. i'll take a shot on afllet alex in a tri or one of the other contenders and hope the even money favorite runs out.
 

Smells like victory!
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you're right, somebody is definately getting fired if bellamy rd. doesn't pull it off
 

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Point Given and Empire Maker were also the best horses going into their derbys. Don't forget that the favorite has only won the derby twice in about 20 years (Fu-peg and Smarty).

None of my money will be on him, even though he seems to be the best horse.

I'm tossing him and trying to hit some exotics at inflated prices.

Good Luck!
 

Bob's Sports Show
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A couple years ago Fusaichi Pegasus pd something like 5.80 for the win and was a huge favorite, I think bellamy rd won't go any lower.

LOL george will definetly take it out on the yanks..lol wheres zip zimmer:103631605 or at least fire the hitting or pitching coach.
 

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Captain Obvious says if he runs the same race he ran last time out he wins going away and we anoint him Secretariat II.

Reality says, the bounceback effect and the huge field grind him down to reality.

If he is superhorse, every ONE of us will be rooting for him to bring the horse racing and gamblindg community to our knees.

If he's another in a long line of faves who failed to match their newsprint we will shake our heads in acknowledgement.

I don't know, and I suspect, the rest of us don't, but that's what makes Derby weekend and the triple crown so damn fascinating.
 

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"Speed figures have pointed out the winners of most recent Derbies, and they have been a very potent tool is distinguishing the contenders from the non-contenders. A useful rule of thumb is that a horse should have earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 or higher at least once before the Derby. In the 13 Derbies since the ratings have been published in Daily Racing Form, only 73 horses have met this standard and 11 have won. Horses who failed to run a 105 before the first Saturday in May had a combined Derby record of 2 for 151. "

"In most years, the Derby contenders' speed figures are closely bunched, but in Saturday's field there are huge gaps separating them. Besides Bellamy Road, with his towering 120, only three horses reached the 105 benchmark: Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby (108), Greeley's Galaxy in the Illinois Derby (106), and High Limit in the Louisiana Derby (105). Other entrants who are considered strong contenders have never run fast - such as Bandini, the runaway winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, and High Fly, the Florida Derby victor. Indeed, more than half the field has never earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, and it is hard to imagine them improving enough to win."

Beyer Speed Figure, a winner will be one of those horses.
 

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Another possible post race question for Steinbrenner?

Now George what did you pay to breed Bellamy Road?

George S xxxxxx.

Well that's not quite as much as what you've paid for the Last Place Yankees, is it?
 

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While Bellamy Road has created a buzz with his dominating wins, Steinbrenner has been all but mum on the colt he bought for a bargain-basement $87,000. At Legends Field in Tampa, Fla., last week, he was asked what it would be like to join the late John Galbreath, the former Pittsburgh Pirates owner, as a World Series-Kentucky Derby champion.

"He was a great friend of mine. It would be great. It would be a great feeling for me," Steinbrenner said. "It's very hard to win the Derby. Thirty-thousand foals are eligible every year. And to be one out of 30,000 is hard...down play it some more george lol
 

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WalesALSNo.10.0203c.gif
 

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Looks like another public betting favorite is about to bite the dust.


can't wait:party:
 

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Thoroughbred racing fans like myself rooting for a Triple Crown winner to perhaps assist in rejuvenating the sport will be on his side if Bellamy Road can win the Derby. I won't be betting him tomorrow due to the lack of value expected and the past history of public choices in this race. If he can pull it off, good luck to him in what has become one of sports most elusive quests.
 

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SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Key trends governing the outcome of this race will be broken one day, but, until that time, we must assume they are underpinned by cold logic. Chief among them is the ‘three-run rule', which governs that a potential winner needs a series of demanding preps as a three-year-old. This is the most serious worry for supporters of potential superhorse Bellamy Road, whose Beyer Speed Figure of 120 in the Wood Memorial is the highest rating ever recorded in a Derby trial. The point is that without the necessary ‘bottom' to his fitness from the extra outing he is short of, there is a chance he could recoil from that effort - he would be the first for 58 years to beat the stats.\n
Afleet Alex is his most credible foe, having won the Arkansas Derby in the manner of a top-notch performer. He has ticks in all the right boxes, but his trainer Tim Ritchey is something of a maverick. The worry is that he has been subjected to a series of overly punishing workouts - including a five-mile canter - which may leave their mark.\n
Bandini was wildly impressive in the Blue Grass Stakes. The trouble is that the surface there throws up misleading results, and Bandini's time was slow. The runner-up, High Limit, could even reverse the form.\n
HIGH FLY gets the vote. The style in which he augmented his fine record when winning the Florida Derby was memorable, and, although a doubt persists over his stamina, the lack of that credential did not stop Smarty Jones or Funny Cide. The colt has only tasted defeat once, and was wildly unfortunate on that occasion.[JW]
 

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LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) As if carrying the jockey wasn't burden enough, there is the owner.



George Steinbrenner won't be riding Bellamy Road not literally, and nowhere near the way he rides the humans on his baseball team if the dark bay colt, the 5-2 favorite heading into Saturday's race, fails to win the Kentucky Derby.

Even the imperious Yankee chieftain has conceded that horse racing is a different game. It's the only one, for instance, where his athletes routinely stick their tongues out at the Boss when they come face to face.

''The rest of them,'' Steinbrenner said on a previous visit to Churchill Downs, ''wait until I leave the room.''

Steinbrenner didn't make it to the backstretch Friday morning, though his presence was felt. There were six Jefferson County sheriff's police cars parked in tight formation outside trainer Nick Zito's barn, perhaps just in case.

Jockey Javier Castellano, wearing a Yankees cap he bought himself, had never met the man ''I hope to meet him in the winner's circle,'' he said but hadn't prepared anything to say.

''I listen,'' Castellano said. ''Just listen.''

Zito, already a two-time Derby winner, will saddle a record-tying five entries for the race. No one asks much about the four other owners, only about King George.

''We have a great relationship,'' Zito said. ''I've heard I'm one of the few people who can say that.''

In the baseball business, maybe. With the Yankees scraping the bottom of the American League East barrel, Steinbrenner is his old, corrosive self. Reached Thursday at his Tampa office, a day before departing for Louisville, he told USA Today, ''Time is getting shorter,'' suggesting the job tenure of either manager Joe Torre, general manager Brian Cashman or pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre maybe even all three might be doing the same.

But something happens when Steinbrenner changes out of his baseball uniform blue blazer, white turtleneck and tan slacks and into his more casual horseman get-up blue blazer, blue turtleneck and tan slacks.

He's had five Derby horses dating back to 1977, and even though none has finished better than fifth, Steinbrenner has been a relative sweetheart as an owner.

''I always got along great with him,'' said trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Derby winner himself. ''He's a great friend. He's impulsive, he reacts, but I never had a problem with him.''

Lukas did say that Steinbrenner is like a lot of his other owners, passionate but pliant at first, then more involved the more his horses win.

''The thing you've got to remember as an owner is that in our game you lose a lot more than you win,'' said trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Derby three times. ''It's more important that your personalities mesh. That's why Mike Pegram and I get along so well. He always says, 'I want to be with somebody fun when we lose.'''

That might still be something of a stretch for Steinbrenner. But not enough of one to scare off Baffert. A moment later, he spotted Ed Sexton, the Joe Torre of Steinbrenner's Kinsman Farms operation, lingering at the edge of a crowd. It was Sexton who found Bellamy Road and picked him up for a mere $87,000.

''I don't know why he didn't send that horse to me,'' Baffert said.

Then, turning to Sexton with a broad smile, he added, ''I've got a plan in case things don't work out, a horse named Brave Charmer, running the race after the Derby. Watch him. Call me and we'll go to the Belmont together.''

Sexton cracked a smile of his own, but left the offer hanging. He knows racing is a tough business, but rarely tougher than when you are in Steinbrenner's employ.

In 1997, the Boss climbed out of a town car the day before the race and strode purposefully toward the barn where his entry, Concerto, lounged in a nearby stable. John Tammaro III, his trainer, and Carlos Marquez Jr., his jockey, were both Derby rookies. Steinbrenner watched both scurry about making preparations for the race and proudly announced he'd avoided the temptation to change either.

''I could get name people for this,'' he said, ''but how can you say to a kid that's practically lived with the horse and I have to tell you, I'm surprised he's not sleeping here that you're off him?''

Proving that some habits are hard to break, Steinbrenner fired the kid a month later.

Jim Litke is a national sports columnist for The Associated Press
 

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the yanks slump continues. joe torres horse went off at 4/5 and ran out of the money. i'm hoping that favorite in derby goes off at 4/5 also. the slump continues
 

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