RPM:
The main basis of my theory is the line for the total is set by the pitchers. My theory is I will base my decision on the other 16 players (or 18 in the american league) in the game. Last night's Minesota game is a perfect example. I pushed with 8 playing the over but ther were alot of people that won with 7.5.
Lets look at the line and use 7.5 in the example. The total is low because we have Cy Young winner Santana pitching for Minnesota. he is up against a Tampa pitcher who is 1-5 and and era of over 5. So my theory is that this total is based mostly on these two pictures. If Santana was pitching against a stronger pitcher the total would have been even lower.
I base my opinions on the other 16 players in the game rather than the two pitchers. Tampa bay is the highest scoring team in the majors with over 180 runs scored. If Tampa can get a couple off of Santana and Minnesota can score off the crappy Tampa pitcher we get our win. If you played baseball it always seemed like hitting was contagious. When guys hit it seems like everybody hits, when guys don't hit, no one hits.
My theory has been very successful in the past and I used to take more time and handicap every game every day. I used to also apply a couple of other things I would track and follow before they were easily found on the internet: things like umpires, pitchers o/u, average runs per ballpark. The best indicator in determining a total in my opinion is how the team is doing not the two guys that are going to pitch today. Now that I have kids I am sticking solely to my team theory and using the martingale system to keep it simple and less time consuming. I hope it gives you some insight. I have used my main theory for over 15 years and it works.
I hope you played them last night because they almost all won.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star