Not a good bet. If Pistons win in 6 then you make 30 bux, if either team wins in any number other than 6 or 7 you lose 400. So you have 2 "good" possibilities, one "OK" possibility, one "break even" possibility, and 4 bad possibilities.
As with any series you have to make decisions before they start. The best case is to have your team lose the first game to improve your odds on the series. Just look at Dallas. They were like +450 after they lost Game 1, then I saw upwards of +1200 when they were down 0-2. But guys thought they were a "gift" in that 7th game at -180 or whatever they were getting.
It is all relative. Most books can't correlate odds properly, so you just have to look and see wht they are offering and when and compare it to potential ml in futre games and go from there. Plus the timings and emotions of bettors rushing odds one way when the tide turns in a series is amazing.
But IMO this bet isn't all that good to make. If you want to betthese types of bets, better to take a stand and play a side. Indy is +850 for the series as it is, if they go down 0-2 in Det then they will be +2500/3000 anyways. Even if they go down 0-1 they will probably be +1500, and go to +1700.
The only way those bets make sense is if you think Indy wins game one in Det, and splits at home. And then you can get Indy at +425 on the ML, and parlay/correlate it out.
BTW that -900 on Det is a joke. I have NEVER seen a team that is more than double the game one ML price in any sport for the series. Most of the time the game one price is right in line with the series price. So Det at twice the ML is something I have never ever seen in any sport.
So books must not want any action on Detroit at all, or someone bet Det for a huge amount somewhere. Or something else is up. But the number doesn't make sense at all. Especially considering these teams split the season and neither team won at home. Very odd odds in this one.
As with any series you have to make decisions before they start. The best case is to have your team lose the first game to improve your odds on the series. Just look at Dallas. They were like +450 after they lost Game 1, then I saw upwards of +1200 when they were down 0-2. But guys thought they were a "gift" in that 7th game at -180 or whatever they were getting.
It is all relative. Most books can't correlate odds properly, so you just have to look and see wht they are offering and when and compare it to potential ml in futre games and go from there. Plus the timings and emotions of bettors rushing odds one way when the tide turns in a series is amazing.
But IMO this bet isn't all that good to make. If you want to betthese types of bets, better to take a stand and play a side. Indy is +850 for the series as it is, if they go down 0-2 in Det then they will be +2500/3000 anyways. Even if they go down 0-1 they will probably be +1500, and go to +1700.
The only way those bets make sense is if you think Indy wins game one in Det, and splits at home. And then you can get Indy at +425 on the ML, and parlay/correlate it out.
BTW that -900 on Det is a joke. I have NEVER seen a team that is more than double the game one ML price in any sport for the series. Most of the time the game one price is right in line with the series price. So Det at twice the ML is something I have never ever seen in any sport.
So books must not want any action on Detroit at all, or someone bet Det for a huge amount somewhere. Or something else is up. But the number doesn't make sense at all. Especially considering these teams split the season and neither team won at home. Very odd odds in this one.
Even if you wager correct amounts on all four of these props so that you recieve the same win if either of these four hit, you would only get a combined price of: +137.
So if you think that this series has the probability of going to at least 6 games is greater than 42% this is a good value bet.
So if you think that this series has the probability of going to at least 6 games is greater than 42% this is a good value bet.
Always a great read Want, I'm just surprised so many think this series will be a blowout.
I do like Indiana's chances to win game one. I also think this series is to compelling for it not to go at least six games, the powers that be just won't let that happen the ratings are everything and this is the matchup the league and everyone else wanted to see. The Spurs and Heat series won't last 6 games and the NBA isn't going to let every series be a blowout. This series will go 7 games and I think Indiana at 24 to 1 is to good to pass up.
I do like Indiana's chances to win game one. I also think this series is to compelling for it not to go at least six games, the powers that be just won't let that happen the ratings are everything and this is the matchup the league and everyone else wanted to see. The Spurs and Heat series won't last 6 games and the NBA isn't going to let every series be a blowout. This series will go 7 games and I think Indiana at 24 to 1 is to good to pass up.
With all due respect, "value" when it comes to a pointspread are totally impossible to determine. It is all based on opinion, plain and simple. Since even the VERY BEST are only right 4-5% better than a flip of the coin, that surely cannot constitute a big enough advantage in a set of seven games. That small advantage ONLY make a distinct difference over thousands of games, so thinking someone is "good" enough to make a big enough difference over a seven game series is crazy talk (no offence).
Also since only 5 underdogs have lost the game and still covered the spread (one was a push depending on when you bet the game)this year shows, as it usually does, that betting the ML on the dog is also a much "smarter" play than taking the points.
So as usual, betting pointspreads in the NBA (unless you like the fave) is a losing prop. Admittedly I do no bet the NBA that much, but I understand when and where "true value" exists, and it surely is not in mine, nor anyone elses OPINIONS on a game by game basis, especially in a 7 game series when you can get unbeleiveable odds both ways depending on the order in which games are won, and by whom.
The Indy/Bos series, and most certainly the Dal/Hou series offered very nice buy backs. Certainly more than trying to pick a random winner in a specific game, or even each game individually for all seven games. A 6 and 1 record in a series (if it goes 7) is still only paying the guy 4.6 to one @-107.
Also since only 5 underdogs have lost the game and still covered the spread (one was a push depending on when you bet the game)this year shows, as it usually does, that betting the ML on the dog is also a much "smarter" play than taking the points.
So as usual, betting pointspreads in the NBA (unless you like the fave) is a losing prop. Admittedly I do no bet the NBA that much, but I understand when and where "true value" exists, and it surely is not in mine, nor anyone elses OPINIONS on a game by game basis, especially in a 7 game series when you can get unbeleiveable odds both ways depending on the order in which games are won, and by whom.
The Indy/Bos series, and most certainly the Dal/Hou series offered very nice buy backs. Certainly more than trying to pick a random winner in a specific game, or even each game individually for all seven games. A 6 and 1 record in a series (if it goes 7) is still only paying the guy 4.6 to one @-107.
One edit to the above post. The 4 covers and one push, that the dogs got were all by dogs of 5 or more points, so taking the points in those game would have made a difference of 4 games. I did look up the ML for the dogs that won SU. One would have roughly collected 1125-1150 per 100 bet on the ML. So you would have lost around 1175 to 1150 betting straight ML plays on the dogs(record of 4-19). Taking the points would have resulted in an 8-14-1 record, for total losses of around 650. So in this case you would have lost $500-525 less, but you needed double the "wins" to do it. But again this is a short term look at something that is a long term process. I just didn't want someoe coming in here and telling me taking the dog on the ML this year would be a losing prop. Taking the dogs at all this year has been a losing prop for the most part...
