k:One overlooked factor by some in Baseball is Momentum. When things go bad or good in baseball, it seems to affect every element of the team. Good examples has been the Yankees and White Sox. Everything the White Sox do seems to be working. In the Yankee case, everything is going wrong. Pitching, Hitting, defense and injuries. A lot of posters have been doing very well betting against the Yanks and on the White Sox. I usually stick with it until the tide reverses.
Up until this year I would have said staring pitching was one of the most overrated things to think of. How many huge leads have been blown the last few years by guys going 5-6 innings and having the bull pens explode?
But now with this new so called steroid issue I have to think enough hitters are truly off the juice, and the numbers are down drastically, allowing pitchers to go a little deeper, and obviously the lack of power and slight bat slow down has helped a lot of pitchers sneak that Sh it they call pitching by most guys without getting hurt.
So starting pitching truly has become a factor once again.
But still looking at lines and opposing lines and determing public sentiment are the capping tools that I solely utilize. Admittedly early on the scalps were ther, but now witht he more "dominant" pitchers, the swings aren't their because the lines are simply too high to get a big enough move to justify a buy back. So it has been a slower year, but it is early yet. But right now the lack of steroids looks to have killed some positive betting angles.
But now with this new so called steroid issue I have to think enough hitters are truly off the juice, and the numbers are down drastically, allowing pitchers to go a little deeper, and obviously the lack of power and slight bat slow down has helped a lot of pitchers sneak that Sh it they call pitching by most guys without getting hurt.
So starting pitching truly has become a factor once again.
But still looking at lines and opposing lines and determing public sentiment are the capping tools that I solely utilize. Admittedly early on the scalps were ther, but now witht he more "dominant" pitchers, the swings aren't their because the lines are simply too high to get a big enough move to justify a buy back. So it has been a slower year, but it is early yet. But right now the lack of steroids looks to have killed some positive betting angles.
RobFunk said:
When it's the last game of a series, and both teams are leaving town.
When that happens, the teams tend to lack focus and discipline at the plate. Couple that with the fact that if the umpires have to be in a city 2,000 miles away for their next game, the game tends to shorten itself - the strike zone gets bigger and first pitch swinging is prevalent - making the "UNDER" a lot more attractive than the over.
The most important thing I look at is winning and losing streaks. I look at the line looking for value, and then I start handicapping, I like looking at the walk and strikeout ratio when I am handicapping, I like keeping a record of every pitchers stats in a notebook, without having to look it all up everyday, I learned along time ago never try to make a losing team win...
