since ive been riding everyones coattails to the money since opening day ive been asking questions and now ive got a totals system im having good success with. i just did the schedule for friday. im not ready to put myself out here yet but very soon i will add what i can to the forum.realise this is a huge thaaang for me cuz i HATE baseball and it bores me into a coma but money brings me out of the coma and winning dont come free.lol.so im going to swing thru the trees with all you guys real soon.golferman said:I love Northern Star's O/U Series system. I copy his plays myself. But, I am wondering if any of you guys have any other great system ideas, or systems that you already use. Would love to hear from as many people as possible. Thanks, and you all are really a great help.
~RG
golferman said:I love Northern Star's O/U Series system. I copy his plays myself. But, I am wondering if any of you guys have any other great system ideas, or systems that you already use. Would love to hear from as many people as possible. Thanks, and you all are really a great help.
'Dogs are Money Hogs"
By Ross Benjamin
The beauty of wagering on baseball is the rate that underdogs win games. Annually local bookmakers across the country will shut their operations down during the summer months. Their excuses vary from the lack of business during baseball season or the need for some time off from the every day rigors of a demanding schedule. You will not get an argument from me as to this partly being the reason. The real reason is the bottom line. Local bookmakers know that this is the one time of year they can take a real beating. Especially considering that if they have one or two major players in the know and they will not have enough casual or novice bettors to overcome their deficits.
Recent studies have shown that 44% of all Major League Baseball games have been won by underdogs. Let’s do some recent comparisons. This past 2004 NFL season including the playoffs and Super Bowl show that underdogs were just 86-176 straight up. That is an outright win percentage of just 32.8%. My college football data from this past regular season and bowl season show that underdogs were 173-475 straight up or just 26.7%. Of course both of those numbers would improve if you were to use ATS calculations. Baseball wagering is clear in the respect of either a straight up win, or straight up loss determines the result of your wager. That is of course unless you dabble with the run-line, which is the surest way to dissipate a bankroll. Bookmakers would invite any customer aboard who strictly would wager on the money line on either the NFL or college football. The odds would be in their favor dramatically as evidenced by the previously mentioned figures.
Let’s think about this for a moment. If you wagered on every baseball underdog through the course of the season you would cash 44% of the time. Most casual observers would say why would you do such an ignorant thing if you know you will lose 56% of the time. Quite simply no other sport when it applies to sports wagering gives you a greater rate of return versus your investment at such a high percentage than baseball. I will even carry this philosophy one step further. If you eliminated underdogs of +200 or more your win percentage would increase to over 47%. Simple handicapping logic would tell you that lines makers have installed these teams as huge underdogs for good reason. Now let’s take a look at the chart I have put together below. This chart displays the daily records of all baseball underdogs from 4/22/2005 to 4/28/2005, which is a full week of wagering. These records are based on the parameters of all underdogs less than +200 and on an average $0.15 line.
DateRecordUnits 4/22/20057-6+3.07 4/23/20055-8+1.69 4/24/20055-8+1.10 4/25/20055-4+2.13 4/26/20054-8-2.72 4/27/20057-6+4.56 4/28/20054-1+3.97
WinsLossesPercentageUnits 374147.4%19.24
Now let’s review so everything is crystal clear. In a seven day wagering period between 4/22/2005 to 4/28/2005. Wagering on all baseball underdogs of less than +200 during this span produced 47.4% winners. Bettors that play $100.00 per game would have profited $1924.00. Bettors that play $1000.00 a game would have profited $19,224.00. Some weeks the figure may be higher and others may be lower. So my advice would be that if you are going attempt this philosophy make sure that you have a big enough bankroll. You should also not exceed betting 3% of your bankroll on any one game.
Baseball wagering can be the most profitable entity in sports betting. Just having simple wagering methods of playing underdogs daily can make you a significant amount of money. Now the formula I have displayed for you should net you about a 47% winning percentage on an average through the course of the season. If you have the ability to isolate value in underdogs this figure can approach close to 50% winners. This brings me to this point. There is a distinct difference between professional handicapping and professional sports gambling. Professional sports handicappers rely on information such as statistics, probability, injuries, individual performances, and team histories to arrive at the possible selections daily. Professional sports gamblers rely more on wagering systems, loopholes in the money line, and strict money management to make their living. If you combine somebody who has very good handicapping skills coupled with rock solid betting systems you have a bookie’s nightmare.
Now you may ask if it so easy then how do the sportsbooks and offshore casinos stay in business from April till October taking baseball wagers. Their logic and reasons are quite simple. Even with the reduced number of people wagering during baseball they still have enough business from the novice and casual bettor to offset someone who has the discipline, intelligence, and patience to apply successful betting methods on a daily basis. The average person making a bet will not be disciplined, will become greedy, and not have the wherewithal to maintain their success over the long haul. The reality is that maybe an average of 1% of people betting on baseball have all the attributes to be successful at baseball wagering. In a direct comparison a successful restaurant owner serves an average of 100 meals per evening. On the average he has one to two complaints a night that requires him to give away a free meal. The profit he makes with the other 99 meals where people are satisfied far outweigh the loss he takes by having to give away a free meal. Even if that one or two complaints is the same person or persons nightly. In closing baseball can be a very lucrative sport to wager on if you have a method to your madness.
This is being tracked at another site with the following terms:
Play Underdogs between +100 - + 200
Eliminate Underdogs Above +200
Eliminate games where favorite is -120 or less
Assume all Wagers $100
05/12/2005; 4W-2L, + 2.90 Units
Since: 05.02/2005, 54W-63L, +5.80 Units.
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Great post BZ. I have a few questions though. Do those dog win percentages of 44 and 47% hold up over the long term? They seem a bit high. Does anyone have the figures as to what percent of the games are won by dogs over several years? The one week quoted in the article is hardly representative of the long term, or is it? I am sceptical of the win% going from 44 to 47 just by eliminating games over +200. Are there that many games over +200 to change the figures that much? I'm talking long term here, not for just a week. Some figures I have seen suggest the win percent may only be 41 or 42% for dogs but I dont know how reliable those figures are. Does anyone know or have the figures? Anyone?
Thanks for the post BZ. It has been very thought provoking.
Ron
Thanks for the post BZ. It has been very thought provoking.
Ron
ronaldn said:
ron,
I don't have a long term win percentage but I would assume it would be 40-44 percent for the dogs. The sytem had a bad day yesterday. I truly feel it will have great results the 2nd half of the year.
RESULTS:
5-14-2005; 4W-9L, -4.50 Units
Since: 05-02-2005; 63W-76L, (45%) +2.60 Units<!-- / message -->
i happened to look at all games above -1.75 for someone the other day and it is a net loser if you take the dogs. i dont recall the numbers but it wasnt close the time period was from the start of the season. to many times rooting for k.c. or col on the road tb etc.
i have been using betting al hometeamsto win one game and it appears to be slightly ahead just started a few weeks ago. dont like that much action as on ttop of that i have my own ego driven guessem plays. iwill have some data on the correlated parlays tonight. lost st.l last night.
i have been using betting al hometeamsto win one game and it appears to be slightly ahead just started a few weeks ago. dont like that much action as on ttop of that i have my own ego driven guessem plays. iwill have some data on the correlated parlays tonight. lost st.l last night.
In a 3-game series, a good team wins one of the first two games at a very high rate, when playing an inferior team. Bet the good team for the first game and if they win you are finished betting on that series. If they lose the first game, play them again on the second day, risking enough to win back yesterdays losses and a full unit profit. If they lose the second day, do not chase again. Today's play would be on St. Louis as they lost yesterday to Phillly. Some people play this system but only look for the situation that is in play today. The system is also reversed, playing against bad teams on the road. That system won yesterday with Baltimore over KC. There is a criteria for determing which teams are good and which are bad.
I think you should use the lefty-righty angle to eliminate some dogs. If the dog is terrible against the left or right, at the site, it should not be bet. For example, if the dog is 5-10 v.lefthanders at the site,and the dog is facing a lefty, it should be eliminated. Go to Jim Feist site, baseball, and click Breakdown to find out records versus left or right.They are broken down by site here.
klancy21 said:
Here we go.
List every team in the Al and NL separately, starting with best win % through the worst.
If the 3 game series started today, the WSox 700, Orioles 658 would be the top two teams on your list. These are the two teams you play ON. Now count down 3-4 more spots on the list and draw a line. Any team below the line is considered a bad team. If the top two are matched against any team in a 3-game series only, then you have a play. Do the same in the NL.
It also works the same starting with the two worst teams in each league. The only difference is you only play against the two worst teams when they are on the road, unless they are playing one of the top two teams as KC was yesterday.
I don't use the system in interleague play, although you could devise a system for it. This system although it is a winner, often requires playing some really high odds. When you have a good team that starts back to back aces like Arizona a few years ago when they had Schilling and Johnson, it was almost impossible to play. Example: Schilling starts the first game of the series and you lay 230 to win 100. If he loses, the next day you have to win back your 230 plus the original 100. So now you place a wager to win 330. Johnson goes off at -245. To win 330 you have to lay $808.50, all to win a $100.00 unit. Did I ever do that. No friggin way. I didn't even go after the first play. I just tossed those types of games out. You can always use common sense. For instance, St. Louis was a play yesterday and they lost. Today they were -107. Not bad at all.
It's not the best system out there but I do win money with it. One year it did not produce a losing series bet for almost 3 months.
