SSI's Double Shots

SSI · May 14, 2005

Lets get the record posted first.
Posted Record YTD:
Totals: 21-20 (-3.37), sort of sucked on totals..

Sides:

One Unit: 48-50 (-1.82 units)
Two Unit: 24-15 (+18.52 units)
Four Unit: 2-1 (+2.40 units)
Overall: 74-66 (+19.10 units).. not too bad a job on sides..

Plays for saturday and this thread:

1. Astros (-1.67) one unit.
2. Orioles (+1.17) one unit.
3. Redsox (-1.16) one unit.

All plays listed pitchers at pinnacle..

A little about the plays: each play will be played for one unit, if the play loses a one time double up (2 unit play) will occur the next game.. There will be no 4 unit plays, as i can guarantee you that the 2nd double up will kill you in the long haul.. dont believe me, continue to watch people try it.. Im talking from a lot of experience on this..

Astros (-1.67): quite simply a play on Mr. Clemens, their stopper, their stud. also a slight nod given to the fact that the stros are 10-7 at home and im taking into account -- that i dont think they get swept in a 4 game series by the Giants at home..

Orioles (+1.17): ill take my chances with the 2nd best team in the AL not getting swept by the best team in the AL over a 4 game set.. Ill take Cabrera and Bedard against Garcia and Contreas and hope i win one of them..

Redsox (-1.16): simply dont think the redsox get swept by the mariners, ill take Miller and Wakefield againtst the 2 seattle starters (meche is one of them and the other slipped my mind at the moment).. Bostons bats should be able to get a win here..

lets see how it goes, remember if i get a win today, the series is over and there is no play on sunday...

this is also not strictly for series', as ill be playing some sunday-monday crossover series..

LEYKIS101 · May 14, 2005

Glad to see you back posting baseball sides. I like your new system variation, lets hope it works. Im with ya on today's plays.

Best of luck.

:103631605

SSI · May 14, 2005

Leykis, im always tinkering.. this is just a slight variation to what i was doing.. im not looking at individual series solely but do take that angle into account.. Im looking more at a certain teams--next 2 games and hoping they win one of them. sort of capping 2 games at once.. If this works, it could be used for all sports with the same concept.. You still must handicap the games, so it has a little bit of system and a lot of capping.. Lets see how it goes and really hope the rocket wins tonight..

LEYKIS101 · May 14, 2005

Sounds logical. Have you ever thought trying an underdog only selection/system? I know you try to keep the favorite selections relatively low-priced, but if Clemens were to lose tonight the 2 unit play tomorrow would barely bring us back to even. Lets hope Clemens blanks em' today and we dont have to worry about it.

:drink:

SSI · May 14, 2005

quite honestly, i hope to hit a much higher % of winners.. the astros game scares me, ive been doing this (without posting) for the past week and have stayed for the most part with a few teams (wsox/redsox/braves/cards/marlins). id rather be on the home team also.. I have been playing this thing "to win 1 unit" on the fav's.. so tomorrow, if houston loses today, we will have houston to win 2.67 units.. i did change that concept from the original system, along with completely dropping the four unit play....

a 2nd double up is a killer, if you dont believe me, realize you must hit almost 9 to 1, just to break even... Look at northern star (who has been doing great).. 30 straight series in which he won units.. however he took an Ofer yesterday, if he drops 4 series this weekend, he would be down money.. 4 taking away 30.. doesnt make sense..

LEYKIS101 · May 14, 2005

Got it. Ok, 2.67 units on HOU should they lose today, I like that additional rule as before you could hit on the 2nd game but not come out much ahead. You will have this fine-tuned in no time.

:103631605

LEYKIS101 · May 14, 2005

2-0 so far with Red Sox pending.

Nice job today SSI.

:103631605

SSI · May 14, 2005

Leykis, ive got to do some more research once the late games are in,,, however i can tell you that im already down on the twins tomorrow (-1.23)... ill back them tomorrow for 1 unit, if they lose -- then ill back them in their next game on tuesday against bluejays with santana going.. dont think texas will sweep them in minnesota...

Ill have a couple others probably.. one will be boston if they lose...

LEYKIS101 · May 14, 2005

Me thinks I will tag along for the ride.

:suomi:

ThreeUnits · May 15, 2005

SSI,
Glad to see you changed a bit on that game-3-of-a-series, double-up-again part of your system. I wrote a few weeks ago how back a couple of seasons I tracked the sweep / anti-sweep angle foor a whole year on the Vegas Insider forum, and it ended absolutely dead even. In other words, a series is just as likely to finish with a sweep as it is with a sweep being broken up.

Now some teams were better "sweepers" than others, while some teams were quite adept in the "anti-sweep" situation than others in that particular scenario. So I guess you have to pick your spots (i.e. you gotta do some capping).

Thus while tomorrow I will be with you on Minny to "anti-sweep", on the other side of the coin I will be on the Yanks to complete the sweep.

Back to your modified system, like yourself I often find value in picking the game-one loser in the second game of a series (again, picking your spots). Today I won with Wash, St.L, Houst and Ariz that way, (with Bost still pending) and lost with only Tor and Minn.

Best,
Three Units

barbierse · May 15, 2005

SSI, What do you think about Torronto on Sunday? Would that game worth a 2 units play? Personally, I don't think they'll get sweep by Cleveland. Thanks

SSI · May 15, 2005

thx guys, 3 units: agree that spot (or situation) selection is everything.. good luck on your plays today.

Barbareise: Halladay vs. Sabathia is a good matchup, i modified my system and selection process a great deal, so it isnt for me.. It should be a low scoring game and i do like to bet Halladay but not today..

New Format: 3-0 (+3.17 units)

Play for sunday May 15th:

4. Twins (-1.23) listed pitchers for 1 unit.

For now this is all, im more into looking for situations and i like the twins today - not to get swept at home by texas with radke on the mound.. If this play loses, ill lay the juice on tuesday and take the Twins again with Santana going for 2 units.. In a sense, im going with Radke and Santana, against Young and Bush (tor on tuesday), and hope we get one win.. If Radke wins today, thats a system win...

May or may not add again later, im looking at the situations and trying to be alot more selective..

heart222 · May 15, 2005

noticed your comment about favorite teams being on the road. may be better to leave them alone. outside of st.l atl and fl have so/so road records so passing may be better. still like home teams to win 1 rather than zig-zag concept suspect both in the long run come out near 50%. have noticed al east and al west are best divisions so looking at them against other divisions may be worht something. good luck heart 222

SSI · May 15, 2005

thx bobk, i think the good teams are capable of winning 1/2 on the road, boston/yanks/braves/cards/wsox and a few others..

adding: redsox (-1.24) 1 unit..

Sundays complete card:

4. Minn (-1.23) 1 unit.

5. Redsox (-1.24) 1 unit.

this is where my system has changed some, even though we won on the redsox yesterday, we are back on them today.. If however the redsox lose today, ill play them for 2 units tomorrow night in oakland.. essentially im taking wakefield and arroyo against meche and sarloos.. More than likely this is it for sunday, as im being much more selective and looking at specific pitching matchup and situations over a 2 game stretch..

heart222 · May 15, 2005

i also have minn today but texas is one of the better road teams so far. i also had st.l and that has cashed. so now we need minn for a good day.

Livinthedream · May 15, 2005

Add 1 Unit

Minny wins

arty:

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