The D-Train is on fire but will soon derail. As I mentioned with Johan earlier, all streaks must come to an end. Had the Marlins been a dog here I may have thought differently. However, they are not and I think Willis loses tonight. If not I will martingale him three times. I don't see him winning 10 games before a loss. Good luck!
I agree. I like it when people post picks with reasoning. If you follow my previous posts, however, you'll know that I give analysis on the good majority of my plays. However, tonight I just posted so late (20 minutes before gametime) that if I had given a decent analysis, there's no way I would have been able to share my side with enough time.BIG Wave said:I agree chaptalk...................wish people would throw in SOME reasoning on something like this - other than "cause he has to lose sometime"...........
Even if it's only a gut feeling............
Anyway.................good luck - Chose, or lose
Being from the south florida area, I talk about our sports all the time. My friends and I were just talking about Dontrelle on Sunday. There were five of us, and all of us just weren't completely sold on him. Honestly, most people down here haven't been since day one. I don't exactly know why. One of my buddies mentioned talks of a Cy Young and we all had to laugh. He is no doubt a good pitcher but he's number 4 on the Marlins depth chart for a reason. He is really number 3 in my book. Burnett is the Marlins #1, he's got amazing speed with the fast ball and sick break on the curve. Beckett is also above Dontrelle, his problem is that he tends to get satisfied easily, and even lazy at times. As far as a gut feeling goes, yeah, I'll admit it was there. But I also am a firm believer in the Law of Averages, especially in sports betting. I am actually planning to fade the Heat in their next playoff series. I'll go into detail there in the B-ball forum though.
So I basically based this play on the Law.
I did see the reasoning for it. Mainly the Marlins bats being a little cold and how well Lowe pitches at home. But at -126, it was just too good of value to pass up. But I personally only put 1 unit on it bc I felt that this was a bad spot for the DTrain. Now I have 3 units on the Under, so I can careless if the Marlins win, I want the under, and it's gonna be tough to get because of that 1 st inning.
