see what youve all done to me? im actually wanting to learn baseball handicapping! your all a very bad influence on me but its damn profitable being this devious.lol.ok i need to understand the moneyline. i was on vegasinsider.com and i noticed the phillies opened at -105.but right away harrahs and a couple others opened the cardinals at -120. whos money moved the money to the other side like that? sharp money?the books money? and if this were any other sport i follow i go with the 1st line offered because i figure the oddsmakers know best since its thier job to know.so can you explain all this in simplistic terms? and if i cap my own games what is the importance of the ML? is the ERA the key to winning? how does one figure out whos bullpens will meltdown? i have so much to learn but the rx is the best classroom in the world so i seek your help. thanks guys.~RG
Rox,,,
the question youa re asking is a HUGELY complex one,,, the VIG yes i s HUGE,,,, you gotta have a STARITNG POINT when betting sides,,,
I am gonna give you a very very average explination,,,,,
you gotta have an angle,,,,then Hit the CRIS -OLY and PINY for the best VIG,,,,,
those are your 100% most solid reliable PAY books,,,,,
Please post a FULL BODY picture of yourself and I will continue the lesson,,
LOLOL
tater
:monsters-
the question youa re asking is a HUGELY complex one,,, the VIG yes i s HUGE,,,, you gotta have a STARITNG POINT when betting sides,,,
I am gonna give you a very very average explination,,,,,
you gotta have an angle,,,,then Hit the CRIS -OLY and PINY for the best VIG,,,,,
those are your 100% most solid reliable PAY books,,,,,
Please post a FULL BODY picture of yourself and I will continue the lesson,,
LOLOL
tater
:monsters- hit up lakersfan for that when you get to hawaii this weekend and youll see for yourself. now answer the question tatertot.lol.~RGtatehill2000 said:Rox,,,
the question youa re asking is a HUGELY complex one,,, the VIG yes i s HUGE,,,, you gotta have a STARITNG POINT when betting sides,,,
I am gonna give you a very very average explination,,,,,
you gotta have an angle,,,,then Hit the CRIS -OLY and PINY for the best VIG,,,,,
those are your 100% most solid reliable PAY books,,,,,
Please post a FULL BODY picture of yourself and I will continue the lesson,,
LOLOL
tater
Roxy -
Don't be shy to ask these kinds of questions. Everyone has to start somewhere. A lot of people on this board have a wealth of information. And I'll offer a drop in the bucket since I'm not tired right now.
1) If two teams open up at -110- and -110, there is no real favorite in the game and it's just the books way of winning by making there juice money.
2) I personally try not to get too caught up in line movement. Sometimes it's massive public money on one team. Sometimes it's a "trap". Some people claim they can look just at line movement and make bets in sports.
3) I suggest whatever style you choose to look at games, you keep it consistent. A good way to start is to make a checklist of things that you find to be important in determining games. Follow that checklist day in and day out and don't stray from it. The more consistent you stay, the better.
4) A few example items on my checklist include the listed pitchers home and away stats. Particularly strikeout/walk ratio. If it's anywhere near 3:1 (3 strikeouts per 1 walk) thats very good. Strikeouts and groundballs/9 innings are important in capping because strikeout pitchers and groundball pitchers have the ability to get out of jams via the strikeout or double play. Pitchers who have a hard time striking batters out, will have a lot of balls hit in play off of them. Every pitcher has runners on base throughout the course of the game. The games are make or break by how well a pitcher can manage men on base. Pitchers with a high flyball ratio have a harder time getting out of these jams because of homeruns, balls in the gap, or sac flies. Groundball and strike out pitchers can get the critical double play and strikeout - the two most important tools for getting out of jams. They usually fair more successful. Sometimes you can find starting pitchers that aren't big name guys because they have high ERAs, that have great groundball/9 innings or strikeout:walk ratios. These guys will usually be big underdogs and you can get a great price on them. Go through a checklist similiar to this.
4) Determining Winners or Values: Sometimes, as you go through your checklist, a game will appear even. So, let's say I go through my checklist and the Cardinals and Phillies appear to be dead even through all of my research. But then I look at the line and I see Cardinals -200 and Phillies +170. I'm taking Philly I don't care what the line movement did.
I hope those are a couple of pointers to maybe nudge you in the right direction. I'm sure others will chime in. If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask.
Don't be shy to ask these kinds of questions. Everyone has to start somewhere. A lot of people on this board have a wealth of information. And I'll offer a drop in the bucket since I'm not tired right now.
1) If two teams open up at -110- and -110, there is no real favorite in the game and it's just the books way of winning by making there juice money.
2) I personally try not to get too caught up in line movement. Sometimes it's massive public money on one team. Sometimes it's a "trap". Some people claim they can look just at line movement and make bets in sports.
3) I suggest whatever style you choose to look at games, you keep it consistent. A good way to start is to make a checklist of things that you find to be important in determining games. Follow that checklist day in and day out and don't stray from it. The more consistent you stay, the better.
4) A few example items on my checklist include the listed pitchers home and away stats. Particularly strikeout/walk ratio. If it's anywhere near 3:1 (3 strikeouts per 1 walk) thats very good. Strikeouts and groundballs/9 innings are important in capping because strikeout pitchers and groundball pitchers have the ability to get out of jams via the strikeout or double play. Pitchers who have a hard time striking batters out, will have a lot of balls hit in play off of them. Every pitcher has runners on base throughout the course of the game. The games are make or break by how well a pitcher can manage men on base. Pitchers with a high flyball ratio have a harder time getting out of these jams because of homeruns, balls in the gap, or sac flies. Groundball and strike out pitchers can get the critical double play and strikeout - the two most important tools for getting out of jams. They usually fair more successful. Sometimes you can find starting pitchers that aren't big name guys because they have high ERAs, that have great groundball/9 innings or strikeout:walk ratios. These guys will usually be big underdogs and you can get a great price on them. Go through a checklist similiar to this.
4) Determining Winners or Values: Sometimes, as you go through your checklist, a game will appear even. So, let's say I go through my checklist and the Cardinals and Phillies appear to be dead even through all of my research. But then I look at the line and I see Cardinals -200 and Phillies +170. I'm taking Philly I don't care what the line movement did.
I hope those are a couple of pointers to maybe nudge you in the right direction. I'm sure others will chime in. If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask.
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5) Also, I like betting underdogs alot. Its been successful for me. In sports people aim to hit 60%. If you take underdogs you only have to hit 50% to make money. I usually take an even number of dogs that I think have a solid chance of beating their opponent that is favored. All you have to do is get the split to make money. A lot of people (the public) love betting favorites.
6) If I look at a game, and I have determined that a particular underdog just has absolutely no chance of beating a favorite, then and only then will I play that favorite if it is about -150 or less. If it's -160 or more I usually play the run line -1 or -1.5 and you can get a + value on that.
If it was just as easy as betting based on ERAs and good pitchers we'd all be rich and the RX wouldnt exist. Don't get caught up in paying a high price for a good pitcher with a low ERA. Perfect example was tonight with the Twins. Johan Santana is a very good pitcher and the Twins were -250 or something crazy. There is so much that goes into a baseball game besides the starting pitcher thats too high a price to pay. The only way you win is if that pitcher has a good game. You lose if that pitchers bullpen fails him, he has a bad outing, his team gives him no run support, or if he pitches great but there are a lot of errors in his defense.
You can't tell if bullpens will meltdown. But good signs are overused bullpens. You can look to see who the most used guys are in each teams bullpen by looking at the number of appearances on their stats. If they pitched 2 consecutive days, their pen is a little overworked and their arms might be tight. They may not be effective if they are used. Or some managers may just give up and leave a pitcher out their to dry even though he is getting hit.
I know it's a lot to throw at you. But you'll get the hang of it.
6) If I look at a game, and I have determined that a particular underdog just has absolutely no chance of beating a favorite, then and only then will I play that favorite if it is about -150 or less. If it's -160 or more I usually play the run line -1 or -1.5 and you can get a + value on that.
If it was just as easy as betting based on ERAs and good pitchers we'd all be rich and the RX wouldnt exist. Don't get caught up in paying a high price for a good pitcher with a low ERA. Perfect example was tonight with the Twins. Johan Santana is a very good pitcher and the Twins were -250 or something crazy. There is so much that goes into a baseball game besides the starting pitcher thats too high a price to pay. The only way you win is if that pitcher has a good game. You lose if that pitchers bullpen fails him, he has a bad outing, his team gives him no run support, or if he pitches great but there are a lot of errors in his defense.
You can't tell if bullpens will meltdown. But good signs are overused bullpens. You can look to see who the most used guys are in each teams bullpen by looking at the number of appearances on their stats. If they pitched 2 consecutive days, their pen is a little overworked and their arms might be tight. They may not be effective if they are used. Or some managers may just give up and leave a pitcher out their to dry even though he is getting hit.
I know it's a lot to throw at you. But you'll get the hang of it.
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Many times the late money in baseball is the right side. Once the lineups are given, you can capitalize on some slow moving lines, especially on totals.
On betting totals, I try not to bet overs on odd numbers (7, 9, 11, etc). Betting overs on 7.5, 9.5, etc is suicide - like taking the road team in football and laying 3.5. If there is heavy juice on a total (over 8 -135) I will take that side. Might be strong winds going out. People study it far more than me on here, so I learn who is strong in different situations here and may use it to my advantage.
On betting totals, I try not to bet overs on odd numbers (7, 9, 11, etc). Betting overs on 7.5, 9.5, etc is suicide - like taking the road team in football and laying 3.5. If there is heavy juice on a total (over 8 -135) I will take that side. Might be strong winds going out. People study it far more than me on here, so I learn who is strong in different situations here and may use it to my advantage.
