8 Unit Play - BoSox/A's OV 9.5

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UF. Champion U.
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Man I really hate starting new threads to "hype" plays like this. It's usually been terrible luck for me. But I felt some people might want to talk about this game in it's own thread.

I put roughly 8% of my bankroll on this play. 8 units.

Basically 2 starters that havn't pitched in awhile getting thrown into the fire of the 3rd game of a split series against 2 offensive clubs that can put up runs. 1st game went 10 runs, 2nd game went 12. Now we get two rusty pitchers getting thrown into the fire, throwing in broad daylight where hitters are able to pick up spin and rotation of the ball out of the hand a lot better in the sun without light shadows.

Wells has been out for awhile with a foot injury. If it's still sore at all he's going to have some tenderness landing on it which can cause some balls to be up in the zone. Aside from all of that, the guy hasn't pitched in over a month. Chances are he's not going to come and jump right back in the mix and be crisp, especially at his age.

He's opposed by Oakland's Etherton who is making his 1st start since 2003. His first big league assignment in over a year is just the World Champion Red Sox in the rubber match of a 3-game set. I think one of these teams could approach going over the total on their own.

Let's hope so. If anyone agrees with this pick I encourage you to use proper judgement in units. I am putting 8% of my bankroll on this game, not 25%. Any other thoughts on the game are welcome? Any trends I'm missing? Any reason NOT to bet this? Best of luck with whatever you decide.
 

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Good luck man...I'll be rooting for you. I can't go on an over in a day game following a night game myself, but I hope it cashes for you. That's a lot of your bankroll to have on one play. I hope it works out!
 

UF. Champion U.
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Thank you Clip.

It's 8% of my bankroll because everytime I go up 15-20 units I cash out. I always leave my bankroll with roughly 100 units. I've cashed out a few times this year through my own picks and trailing others. So, if you count all my cashouts and such it's really about 3% of my bankroll. But I get what you are saying about night - day, I'll see if it plays any factor into some other games I've got bet or if it's a capper myth. I wonder if anyone has any stats on that?

Thanks for your input.
 

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That is great that you are up. That is far less of a risk then at 3%. Risking 8% is a formula for disaster in my opinion. But it sounds like you know what you are doing and that is not a true 8% risk. Congrats!

That night/day theory would be an interesting stat to see. I follow the results a little myself without being much of a total's bettor. I rarely play totals but just kind of check in to see how that theory does because it seems to make sense. It is looking like a 4-0 day for unders if you followed that theory for the early games so far today...maybe 3-1.

I mainly play sides until I came across Northern Star's system and I am on the UNDER in the Texas/Chicago game.
 

UF. Champion U.
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Yeah, I tihnk it would be an interesting stat.

I don't play totals much either. I'm mainly an underdog bettor, but a few totals have caught my eye recently. I also have the over in mets/reds game and that one has a very good chance. They've already blown a couple of opportunities. Griffey was up with bases loaded and a 3-1 count and he grounded out to 1B for the 3rd out, and the next inning the Reds pitcher Milton just hit a base hit with a man on 2nd, and he got thrown out at the plate. So this game could be over already in the 6th if they get some timely hitting. Still a lot of game left though.

Do you know any sites that I might be able to find a stat about over/unders for day games following night games? Maybe statfox? Know any others?
 

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I don't know of any other sites...Statfox seems to be the best for that stuff. Maybe Covers.com?
 

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2-0 oakland that is the best you could see boxer as we know boston will score a run or two. good luck!
 

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Looking good early man...3-0 in the first. The good news is those 3 runs came from Oakland. With their offense, any runs you get out of them is a bonus. Hopefully Boston will score plenty today as well.
 

UF. Champion U.
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3-0. The're on pace for 27 runs! LOL.

I got the over in this damn Mets game and I'm starting to get pissed. I have the push right now but I want this over I got 4 units on it.

1) Griffey grounds out on a 3-1 count with bases loaded.
2) Next inning Reds pitcher gets a base hit with 2 outs and man on 2nd and he gets thrown out at the plate.
3) Carlos Beltran has bases loaded and grounds out to the pitcher.

UGH!
 

UF. Champion U.
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4-0!

Yeah Oakland is the bonus. I know Boston can score on this pitcher. These two pitchers are rusty. Almost half way there in the bottom of the 1st. But not just that hopefully Oakland set the tone for them game with the 4 run 1st and making this a high run affair. Hopefully a back and forth offensive battle.
 

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Mark Ellis keeps it alive, another former teammate of mine, with a base knock.

Wells might not make it out of the 3rd. Bring on these bullpens.
 

UF. Champion U.
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It ain't over yet. But I couldn't of asked for the game to start any better than that. :103631605
 

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yeah you did good job there as reyes has yet another triple looks like today just may be your day I wish you were on the rockies.
 

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Congrats man...like we were discussing earlier about the night/day unders, it looks like you are on the only 2 overs in the early games so far. Awesome job.
 

UF. Champion U.
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I would be on the Rockies if they were a dog. But I'm not dishing out extra money to bet on that team. But you've supported me in my thread, I'll be the 1st guy rooting on the Rockies later for you. I actually like your confidence going back to them again, and I might have to throw a couple bucks on them. In Alan, I trust.

Thanks Clip. Far from over though.
 

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