Baseball Question (Runline)

aceduecetrey · May 18, 2005

How much more likely is it for the home team to win by 1 vs. the road team winning by 1?

Example: Fla on road -130 on ML today = -1.5 + 140
Wash at home -130 on ml today = -1.5 + 175

Rainbow · May 18, 2005

One lesser bat at home is pretty strong to over come.

aceduecetrey · May 18, 2005

Rainbow said:
One lesser bat at home is pretty strong to over come.

I am hoping one of the STAT boys here can give me some numbers.....

PanchoSanza · May 18, 2005

Rainbow said:
One lesser bat at home is pretty strong to over come.

thats not the reason for the disparity, think bottom of 9 and extra innings, almost all the time when the home team wins it in either of those 2 scenarios, its by 1 run.

Rainbow · May 18, 2005

Pancho Sanza said:
thats not the reason for the disparity, think bottom of 9 and extra innings, almost all the time when the home team wins it in either of those 2 scenarios, its by 1 run.

Pancho, that has alot to do with the line when the visiting team gets one extra at bat.

wantitall4moi · May 18, 2005

I have historical data somewhere. But it really vaires from team to team actually.

But I think the home fave will win by one run roughly 16 or 18% of the time, a home dog will win by one run about 16 or 18%. One is 16 one is 18 I remember that.

Road faves win by exactly one run about 11 or 12% of the time, and road dogs will win by one run about the same 10-12%, can't remember now.

But road teams are around 11% Median/average winning by one run, home teams are around 17% Median/average. So about 5-7% I would say differential.

I have them all broken down somewhere, if you want specifics I might be able to pull some.

PanchoSanza · May 18, 2005

Rainbow said:
Pancho, that has alot to do with the line when the visiting team gets one extra at bat.

Try again.:smoker2:

SHAWN GOTTI · May 18, 2005

lotta 1 run games!!

Rainbow · May 18, 2005

Pancho Sanza said:
Try again.:smoker2:

I would bust you if you minus the at bat for the road team, and make the line the same, it would be like taking candy from a baby...

PanchoSanza · May 18, 2005

Rainbow said:
I would bust you if you minus the at bat for the road team, and make the line the same, it would be like taking candy from a baby...

OK, if you say so.:hump:

aceduecetrey · May 18, 2005

Wantit- Thanks, I thought you might have some good information for me. I dont need anymore detailed information, I was just looking for a rough idea. Thanks again.