Sun San Antonio Series price

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I wasn't sure who would be favored in this series. With home court I figured it might be Phoenix by a little bit. But I thought SA had enough reputation to be made a slight fave. But right now they are sitting at -156. That line makes no sense at all to me.

I notice that there is no game line for The first match up. Probably because these places have to figure out how to make Pho a dog and still keep a straight face.
It is something to have Miami -4/4.5 with a -190/200 ML in game one and have the whole world betting Det in the series to push them back. But that is due to a major question mark with a major player, and one that probably can decide the series. If Shaq was healthy I would imagine Miami would have ben a -200 in the series, and still taken some action. But as it is people were falling all over themselves trying to bet Det.

I think it is a smoke screen personally. Shaq has pulled that shiit his whole career. I imagine he will come out 80-90% and be a big role in this series and Miami will probably win. The guy has only played a couple games in the last month. But that is what he does when he isn't needed. He coasts to be ready for WHEN he is needed. Which is this series.

But back to SA/Suns Can't figure it out. SA is good yes, and Suns have been labeled paper tigers. But they have still gotten it done. They have no injuries, and if anything Nash has set himself above everyone and shown why he was the MVP of the league.

All I can say is I am anxiously waiting to see what the number is for game one. I think Pho was a HD once this year(that was against SA +2 and they did lose), and have been no less than a -6 fave in playoffs at home. And I think they have only been a dog 11 times total. So to see a team -160 against them in a 7 game series when they have the first two games at home is very surprising.

You could maybe make a case for -120 with SA being small dogs on the road in 3 games like +1/+2, then being -5 to -6 at home, but right now they basically have to open up -3.5 on the road in game one, and I can't see how Pho doesn't get a lot of action as that big a dog at home. Because if they open game one -2 than it is the same scenario, you are better off betting them to win that game on the ML, and if they lose, then you can come back and bet them (SA to win the series at +140 at least)

Basically the odds can't seem to match up right here for the books. Maybe that is why they are waiting on posting a line. Doing what they seem to be doing a lot mre lately. Letting the action determine the line for them, rather than posting a legit line to begin with.
 

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LMAO, what did I tell you, they put up Pho -3, with NO ML, what a frigging joke.


Anyone that tells me Pinnalce or any other sportsbook/linemaker is a savant I am going to puke.

All these places do is put up a number and see what happens, then when they seem to have a handle on it they stick and then swap money back and forth.

There is absolutley NO justification to have Pho as a +140 dog and then post them a -3 fave. Anyone betting on San Antonio to win the series at -160 would need to have their frigging heads examined.

All they need to do is bet SA in the first game at legit odds, generally a +3 road dog should be +130-140. Then if SA loses, they lose that bet, but can still come back and get SA in the series for a hell of a lot better than -160. If SA wins the first game, then they do not need to bet anymore. They got paid twice as much for ONE game compared to having to wait a whole series that they may or may not pull out.

Things like this show just how "good" books aren't, and shows just how EASY it is for anyone with even a little bit of money can start their own place up and make a killing if they use their heads.
 

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Well at least the Greek had the balls to put up a legit ML on the Spurs of +140. I do not play there, but seems to be the best possible scenario to me. If you like the Spurs you have to bet them ML in game one, then if they lose come back and bet them in the series at a lot higher premium than -160/170. Again, if they win then you are set for the series.Unless you want to take a shot at Pho who down 0-1 would probably be +275.
 

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I have alot of respect for you, but nobody in the NBA will be favorite over the Spurs including the Heat...
 

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I agree, but the Heat won't be in the Finals.



Rainbow said:
I have alot of respect for you, but nobody in the NBA will be favorite over the Spurs including the Heat...
 

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Rainbow, not about me. I am just pointing out how these books do things.


If SA is the better team and the books think people will bet them, then why are they +3? They could have just as easilly made them -2, would have made more sense for sure. Or even make the firsyt game a PK. But to put up +3 with no ML is not bookmaking in my opinion. It is simply making up a number to see what happens. Especially when they made these guys prohibitive favorites in the series.

Considering SA HAS to win a game on the road to win the series, then where is the justification in making them +140 road dogs in game opne, and -160 overall favorites? Even if it goes to seven games, SA will be on the road. to justify the -160 SA wil have to be about a 3.5/4 point fave so they are gong to make a 6.5/7 point spread swing in that time? Even if it doesn't go seven they still have to win one of those games on the road. So anyone who likes SA to win this series cannot bet them to win the series. The odds do not justify it, since they have odds in individual games that will be better.

I have said it before, and I will say it again, these books/linesmakers can't correlate a two game series let alone a seven game series.

There is no scenario that makes this balancing action. Not one.

You make 3 bets in this series at most. You bet Pho +140 now to win the series. You bet SA +140 now to win game one. Depending on what happens in game one you either win with SA and still have Pho live, or you lose the SA bet, and then get SA PLUS money for the series. So you have both teams live in the series, and PLUS odds, which at worst should break you even after the losing bet on the Spurs in game one.

It is basically a free roll for guys, and if guys are looking to fulfill bonus whoring commitments it is a no brainer. Even for guys looking to get a free shot it is still a no brainer.
 

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wantitall4moi said:
Rainbow, not about me. I am just pointing out how these books do things.


If SA is the better team and the books think people will bet them, then why are they +3? They could have just as easilly made them -2, would have made more sense for sure. Or even make the firsyt game a PK. But to put up +3 with no ML is not bookmaking in my opinion. It is simply making up a number to see what happens. Especially when they made these guys prohibitive favorites in the series.

Considering SA HAS to win a game on the road to win the series, then where is the justification in making them +140 road dogs in game opne, and -160 overall favorites? Even if it goes to seven games, SA will be on the road. to justify the -160 SA wil have to be about a 3.5/4 point fave so they are gong to make a 6.5/7 point spread swing in that time? Even if it doesn't go seven they still have to win one of those games on the road. So anyone who likes SA to win this series cannot bet them to win the series. The odds do not justify it, since they have odds in individual games that will be better.

I have said it before, and I will say it again, these books/linesmakers can't correlate a two game series let alone a seven game series.

There is no scenario that makes this balancing action. Not one.

You make 3 bets in this series at most. You bet Pho +140 now to win the series. You bet SA +140 now to win game one. Depending on what happens in game one you either win with SA and still have Pho live, or you lose the SA bet, and then get SA PLUS money for the series. So you have both teams live in the series, and PLUS odds, which at worst should break you even after the losing bet on the Spurs in game one.

It is basically a free roll for guys, and if guys are looking to fulfill bonus whoring commitments it is a no brainer. Even for guys looking to get a free shot it is still a no brainer.

The first game is always higher, if Phoex wins the first game by 10pts the 2nd game will be -2 or less.
 

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Ya and if Pho wins the first game then what will the series price be on SA?


There is absolutely no way to say the odds in gme one, and the sereis odds prices match up.

If guys can't see such a glaring discrepency, then frankly they shouldn't be gambling. That is as obvious as it gets.

It is one thing to see a 3 cent scalp, is is another to look at two sets of odds, look at all possible outcomes and realize there are ways to bet this and not lose.

And it isn't like the limits are all that low either way for protection either. You can basically bet it for what you want.
 

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wantitall4moi said:
Ya and if Pho wins the first game then what will the series price be on SA?


There is absolutely no way to say the odds in gme one, and the sereis odds prices match up.

If guys can't see such a glaring discrepency, then frankly they shouldn't be gambling. That is as obvious as it gets.

It is one thing to see a 3 cent scalp, is is another to look at two sets of odds, look at all possible outcomes and realize there are ways to bet this and not lose.

And it isn't like the limits are all that low either way for protection either. You can basically bet it for what you want.

I understand what you are saying, I was just talking about the Sr\eries price itself, the Spurs should be the favorite, I wasnt talking no scalping....
 

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This is just too funny

Wantitall4more is ripping on the books for setting obvious "bad lines", correctly pointing out they opened Phx -3 when it should have been -2 or -2.5. Nice work, he found a line off by 3/4 of a point. It happens.

Unfortunately, he also set the PHX/SA series line WITH PHX AS THE FAVORITE.

If it was my book, and my lines guy threw that one out, and we had to eat a bunch of Spurs +100, -110, -120 and -130 and -140 bets, I'd be Donald Trumping all over the place. "Your Fired".

Wantitall4more, can you please get a sportbook to use YOU as their odds consultant?
 

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If they are going to be dogs in the away games, then I am not so sure they should be favored in the series actually. I can't see them beeing more than -200 at home.

At -200 faves. That is 3 games. So assuming they win all 3 games at home. Correlate that out. $100 @-200= $150, parlay that to -200 and that returns $225. Parlay that gets $337.50. So right there you are getting more for your 100 bux than if you bet them -160 for the series. Not to mention if it does work out that each teams wins at home and it goes to game 7, then you have that 337.50 to bet on the Spurs ML on the road, where I ahveto assume that they would be at best/worst a PK, and that is still a 3 point swing from game one (assuming they lose that game)

Of course they might lose a game at home and need two on the road. Then at +odds for both those that blows it way out of whack.

The bottom line is, unless you think SA is going to sweep the Suns you cannot bet them right now. Unless of course you bet them in one of those props at whatever odds you canget the Spurs in 4 games. I have to think it is like +180, if they even have it up yet. Because that is the only number that would make sense at this point.
 

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CRIS is using Phoenix -2.5 and -145 ML in Game one and SA-160 for the series.

If the series was considered a toss up then Phoenix would be around 4 to 4.5 in Game one to reflect home court advantage. -160 is not a big series price to begin with and the Spurs were the off season futures favorite to win the Conference so you then may inflate a bit to get some Suns action for the series. Suns futures didn't start becoming popular until they jumped out to a quick start so many books either had their futures down or made adjustments to limit many 20-1 and greater prices for the conference that were around early on Phoenix.

Personally depending on Joe Johnson's availability , I will be playing the Suns for the Series and glad to be getting this plus price.
 

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Fezzik you are supposed to be some sort of genius I guess.


So tell me, would you rather bet SA -160 for the series or bet them in a game where they are a dog to win a single game and win the series?

Even in a close out game at home I doubt they would be more than a -220 fave on the ML, but that still assumes they won two games on the road in which the will have to be dogs.

When a team has to win a game as a dog, it is VERY hard to justify them as a favorite at all let alone a decent sized favorite.

I guess you guys are just too smart for me:monsters-
 

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Wantitall

So if you like SA-160 for the series and instead you bet +125 in Game One and lose then are you now doubling up in Game 2 at say +110? If that goes down and the Spurs win both at home and come back 2-2 for Game 5 are you now tripling up in the GAME 5 money line to justify not taking them -160 for the series and just chase dog prices throughout the series trying to get that unit?
 

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Aquatic SA WAS +140 ML in game one, even now at +125 they are still offering value, obviously no where near as much.


But NO, if you like SA to win the series you bet them in game one on the ML. If they lose THEN you bet them for the series, if they lose game one, they have to be at least +140 sereis price at that point.

Right now these are the bets I would suggest...

Pho +143 series
SA game one ML +125(was +140)

If SA wins you collect the 125 ML, and you have a free roll still with Pho

If SA loses, then you come back and bet them to win the series at the adjusted odds. I am guestimating +140 or so.

So then you have a loss on the game, and two live tix both at +140. Basically you are risking 60-65 bux (at 100 per play) to win 265-270, it was rsking 60 to win 280-285. But still a nice shot in my opinion.
 

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What are the odds if you take Nash away?

What are the odds if you take Duncan away?

Opinions anyhow
 

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You know even if the Spurs lose the first game noway in hell you will be able to take +140 for the Series on the Spurs, the Spurs would still be a slight favorite to win the Series...
 

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Rainbow, I can't see it.


It weas one thing to have Det a fav over Indy when they were down 2-1. Det opened like -900 in that series. I can't see a -160 fave that loses the first game still being favored. Maybe 140 is high, probably 125 is more like it. But either way it is worth the shot.
 

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