Buster Olney: who should buy, sell, and hold

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The Straightshooter
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Buy, sell, or hold?
The Athletics are starved for runs, they can't catch the ball, they're ravaged by injury, and even as Barry Zito took advantage of the twilight and threw well Sunday, they still managed to find a way to lose. Keith Ginter dropped a pop-up and botched an easy doubleplay grounder, and the expression of Oakland manager Ken Macha began to resemble that of Walter Matthau in "The Bad News Bears": You've got to be kidding me.

Oakland is 17-26, eight games out of first place, and hard decisions for the Athletics – for just about every team – are imminent, as June nears: Should they buy, sell, or hold their cards for a little while longer?

Those who should sell
* The Rockies would love to deal Preston Wilson, but some scouts who've seen him deem him high-risk, beyond the contract concerns.
* The Athletics should be all about 2006, which means shopping Zito and other veterans. Sidelining Octavio Dotel and making sure he's healthy for the market is simply smart business.
* Seattle should be ready to dangle Randy Winn and others.
* The Reds have many needs, and should be open to all offers at this point. Kansas City should be able to move Sweeney in the weeks ahead.

Those who should sell – and buy
* The Phillies are currently in last place in what is apparently going to be the deepest division in the majors, with five teams jockeying all summer. They're 5½ games behind and unless last week's burst of success continues – five wins in seven games – they'll need to shake things up. Third baseman David Bell has 11 RBI in 43 games, Vicente Padilla is averaging less than five innings per start. What they have isn't going to work, so why not make some aggressive moves and try to make it happen now? Make a hard offer for Barry Zito. Use Ryan Howard and Placido Polanco and other prospects, and if the Phillies don't turn around it around in the next two months, they can still clear the decks before the July 31 trade deadline.

Those who should buy
* The Angels, who need to add a run-producer for the middle of their lineup pronto (Mike Sweeney).
* The Padres should tinker, add right-handed bat – and maybe a middle infielder, to prepare for the possible loss of Mark Loretta (Julio Lugo or Jerry Hairston?).
* The Diamondbacks should aggressively ask around about a closer, focusing on Danys Baez of the D-Rays; there's no guarantee they can find a solution from within, and they're going to be in this race for the long haul.
* The Marlins are going to need bullpen help before season's end; same with the Braves.
* The Orioles and White Sox have started strongly, but they can't afford to sit back and assume they'll continue to play this well. The Orioles could use a bona fide first baseman, and while Todd Helton a lot of sense on the field, his contract is probably too big of a hurdle to overcome. Sweeney is more palpable. The White Sox can focus on offensive upgrades, and GM Kenny Williams is always aggressive.

Those who should listen
* Tampa Bay can't flat-out bail on the season because of manager Lou Piniella, but the D-Rays should be open to making deals for Baez and Aubrey Huff. Toronto, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Detroit, Washington, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh shouldn't be putting up Fire Sale signs, but they're probably all a year or two removed from contending; they should consider offers that make them better in the long term.
* The Mets made a mistake last year by making deals for veteran pitchers when the team wasn't yet ready to contend. They're hanging in the race now, but the idea of swapping more prospects to augment this year's team would be a mistake. On the other hand, if they get a good offer for a veteran, like Mike Cameron (from Baltimore, perhaps), they should make a move.

Those who should hold
* The Astros are 12 games out of first place and they probably won't be in contention that much longer, but there's no reason to build up or tear down yet. There will be time enough to talk trade later (and Roger Clemens's status will be determined, once and for all).
* The Yankees will monitor the trade market for now, especially for middle relief help, and if Baez hits the market, they should bid. But there's no reason for crisis mode yet.
* The Red Sox just need to wait to get their pitching in order, while monitoring the middle relief market. They can give first baseman Kevin Millar – holder of what could be the team's most changeable position – more time to hit, as they did last year. Another bad month for Millar could alter their thinking; he plays a power position and he's got two homers in two months.
* The Cardinals are in great shape, and can just watch the market and wait for Scott Rolen to heal, and for needs to develop.
* The Dodgers need more time to assess their needs; same with the Giants, who should get Jason Schmidt back in their rotation this week, with the possible return of Jerome Williams looming.
* The Cubs are probably not good enough to contend, with so many holes. They should wait a little longer before deciding whether to build up or break up.

Prior Goes All the Way
• Mark Prior had elbow problems in the spring, he had 107 pitches through eight innings, and he would finish with 126 in a complete-game victory. Prior wanted the ball, Cubs manager Dusty Baker explained, reasoning which might not seem so sound if Prior has issues down the road. Prior said the only number he was concerned with was the score. Rookie Brandon McCarthy threw well for the White Sox in the rubber match of this series, as Scot Gregor explains.

• Doctors say Barry Bonds can start his rehab, in earnest.

• The Mets gave away Sunday's game, playing terrible defense and appearing as if they were completely unprepared for a pivotal double-steal attempt in the eighth inning. Joe Torre and Bernie Williams have a bond that extends back to the championship years, as Joel Sherman writes. ... David Wright had a bad day, but he's going to be a great player. ... Randy Johnson wants the Yankees' rotation to better conform to his schedule. ... The Mets don't seem sure about whether Carlos Beltran is headed to the disabled list. ... The Yankees have injury issues of their own.

• Matt Clement goes all the way in the Red Sox's victory over John Smoltz and the Braves. The Red Sox have been going with a new first baseman, as Millar deals with a foot injury.

• The Marlins finished off the hapless Devil Rays in a three-game sweep, despite losing their manager. The manager of Tampa Bay is looking for answers. ... Former Tampa Bay prospect Josh Hamilton is in trouble, again, as Marc Topkin reports.

• Javier Vazquez is pretty good, as the Tigers discovered for themselves. In time, the Yankees' Randy Johnson trade might turn out to be one of the worst of the decade, considering the swap of Brad Halsey and Vazquez and the outlay of huge dollars.

• The Rangers finish their rout of the Astros, with Chan Ho Park playing the role of Sandy Koufax. Houston has been shut out in 6 of 21 road games this year, and is averaging less than three runs per game away from home.

• Aaron Sele of the Mariners held the Padres to just four hits. And Jim Street writes that Jeremy Reed appears to be coming around for Seattle.

• J.D. Drew shows signs of life, as the Dodgers take the third game of their series against the Angels. Vladimir Guerrero says he'll be back on June 5.

• Ron Cook writes that Lloyd McClendon deserves an extension. The Pirates' GM says he's satisfied with the manager.

• Danny Graves is no longer a fan favorite in Cincinnati, as the fans demonstrated on Sunday, near the end of the Indians' victory.

• David Eckstein implodes, and the Royals explode, in the final game of the intra-state series. The Cardinals, by the way, are fed up with Jose Lima's antics, as Joe Strauss writes.

• The Brewers had it all in their grasp: A series win over the Twins, on a day when Johan Santana started. But then they let it all get away, with a late-inning collapse.

• Pat Burrell hammered the Orioles, as the Phillies took a series in Baltimore; they've won five of seven now.
posted: May 23, 2005 8:00:23 AM PDT | Feedback
 

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