when do you bet a trend? or when is a trend actually a trend and not due to random ch

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While this question is probably more suited for a statistics prof to answer i am wondering when a trend is actually a trend (compared to just mere chance) and worth betting on? i realize in any probability problem standard deviation and the central limit thereom play a major part in finding a statistical accuracy for the chance of an outcome to happen. Yet i wonder what percentage does something have to hit at before you would bet it. and how many games would you say should be looked at before putting value to the trend? for instance if something happened ten times in the last year and in nine occurances a certain team a won, would you consider that a good trend? or perhaps over the course of 165 football games a certain team covered 65% of the time would that be a valuable trend?

In wayne allen root's book, "The Zen of Gambling", he states that only generic trends work for him and he defines generic trends as, " trends that apply to any team (not a specific team) in certain historical situations." Root then goes on to list trends that he believes are substantial to each corresponding sport. For example, in college football one of root's theories is, "The Perfection Doesn't Last Theory." In this theory root writes "look for undefeated college football teams that start the season undefeated at 5-0, or 6-0, or 7-0, to finally lose their first game, then wager against them in the very next game." I personally did the research on this situation and found that there was 118 occurances of this theory over the past twelve seasons, (ie.1992-2005) and teams FAILED TO COVER in this situation 60% of the time. I realize as a sports bettor that this is a winning proposition but i can only wonder how much of this is due to standard deviation and will this perhaps even out over the next twelve seasons?

What do you think? when do you bet a trend? or when is a trend actually a trend and not due to random chance? i hope this is not too confusing?

thanks
 

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The trend is to be bet when you are at the decision inwhich you feel you have an edge with stats proving your theory.
 

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this i understand general. However i am wondering more what you would consider a good number for your data batch and around what winning percentage you would consider offers value or "proof of your theory"? I think it is interesting that in the above theory listed Root considers 60% to be such an advantage that he would mention it in his book.
 

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Solid bump. A nice clean thread to do God's work.




Putting together the best streaks (some of them) right now. A combined 35-0 covering spree.


A few notes.
**Unicaja is benefiting from higher totals. They have to go by the numbers but that is leaving them exposed with those higher totals, and thus the 12-0 Under streak has been kept alive.
**Obra is in a death spiral. Lost last 4 games by 57 points. Get blasted in next two games?
**Southland in a similar situation with Unicaja, except for overs. They can easily dump in 50 a quarter (200/game) with the occasional 60 pt quarter.
**Toyota.... not sure if season done, or playoffs coming.

Seconday note:
Combined they are 35-0. However, I have not added the extension of their streaks. Some may have gone 3-1 even prior to their streaks.



Unicaja 11-0 under
(Spain)
5/11 -- 162, under = 12-0 under
5/18
5/26



Obradoiro 0-6 ATS
(Spain)5/11 -- -2.5, loss = 0-7 ATS
5/19
5/26



Southland Sharks 8-0 Over
(New Zealand)
5/11 -- 199.5, over = 9-0 over
5/17
5/19



Toyota Alvark 6-0 Under (Japan)
5/11 -- 148.5, under = 7-0 under
???
???
 

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IX XI


/|\
I X X I
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2 hours ago

son los judios, los judios viene planeando controlar el mundo desde que fueron esclavos en egipto, sus asociaciones brujeriles y todo su conocimiento oscuro lo sacaron del mundo antiguo, egipto, babilonia y todo eso, el judio le dio forma a su bestiario cuando estuvieron cautivos de nabucodonosor y ahi crearon su ideario y su mesianismo, en egipto y babilonia NO HABIAN JESUITAS, en tiempos de Jesus no habian jesuitas tampoco, los jesuitas no mataron a jesus, los jesuitas no ayudaron a constantino a crear el catolicismo, los jesuitas no quemaron Roma, los jesuitas no estaban representados en las monarquias de Europa en la edad media COMO SI LO ESTABAN LOS JUDIOS, lo que pasa es que el judio siempre se las arregla para culpar a otros por sus crimenes, siempre hay otro sindicado como el responsable de las cosas y asi el judio permanece oculto, ahora los medios apuntan a los jesuitas como los culpables de todo, cuando hace como 15 años atras la gente comenzo a despertar y empezó a ver masones por todas partes como los autores y responsables de las cagadas del mundo van los medios y empezaron a culpar a los jesuitas, y lo mas curioso es que la iglesia catolica no ha dicho ni media palabra para defender la orden jesuita ni tampoco los jesuitas han dicho nada, todos disparan contra ellos y todos los achacan como responsanles pero..... pero el asunto es que son los masones, y el judio sabe que si la gente descubre a los masones como los responsables entonces el siguiente paso es descubrir a LOS JUDIOS, porque la masoneria es el brazo visible y oculto al mismo tiempo de la judiada, el judio, recuerda, el judio SIEMPRE SE OCULTA, SIEMPRE, porque el judio teme ser descubierto porque el judio NO PUEDE PELEAR POR SI MISMO SINO QUE HACE QUE OTROS PELEEN POR ELLOS, ya lo vimos en las dos guerras mundiales y en la creacion del estado de israel, hasta el dia de hoy yankilandia pelea por israel, ¿no te has dado cuenta? entonces si la gente estaba descubriendo a la masoneria como responsable entonces los medios, que son propiedad de judios, echan al ruedo a los jesuitas para desviar la atencion de la gente y ganar tiempo, ¿ganar tiempo para que? PARA OCULTARSE, asi lo vienen haciendo hace miles de años entonces, los masones son el brazo articulado judio visible, el judio detras del mason orquestando todo y obteniendo todos los beneficios, y para que ni uno ni otro aparezca en la palestra MUESTRAN AL JESUITA COMO RESPÒNSABLE, y el jesuita no dice ni media palabra en defensa de si mismos ni la iglesia ¿conclusion? EL JUDIO ES EL RESPONSABLE DE TODO ojala que no te creas este engaño porque por lo que vi eres bien despierta, el jesuita ES UN RECURSO DISTRACTOR para mantener a la masoneria fuera del escrutinio publico y al judio OCULTO, como siempre lo han hecho supongo que sabes que un banquero judio en el siglo 20 dijo: " todos pueden hablar mal de Dios, pero NADIE PUEDE HABLAR MAL DE NOSOTROS LOS JUDIOS" ¿has notado como de cierto es esto en este mundo? ¿te has fijado como las leyes de todo el mundo caen sobre cualquiera que se atreva a decir algo negativo de los judios? ¿sabes que si en Europa pones en duda el holocausto te meten a la carcel? ¿sabes que en todo el mundo puedes insultar las cosas sagradas de las religiones, escupir simbolos sacros, irrumpir en ceremonias religiosas tradicionales vocifereando tu ateismo y nada te va a pasar, pero si en Europa dices que Hitler fue un buen hombre te vas derecho a la carcel? bueno, habla mal de los jesuitas, insultalos, escupelos, maldicelos en publico y despues ve a tomarte una cerveza para celebrar tu cometido porque nadie te hará nada insulta a un judio en la calle.... y mira la de palos que te dara la policia y la de noches que pasaras a cuadritos.... y despues di que los jesuitas controlan todo.....
 

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Will only post the ones that match the criteria. If they continue to win, they'll continue to appear. If they lose, they won't appear.

The four above are solid, with two teams that are extremely solid and have the ability to continue.




Bakken Bears 5-0 under (Denmark)
5/13 -- 173.5 ........ 100pm EST
???
???




14-4 Under in last 18. Current streak is 5. Haven't really followed Denmark hoops with a close up look. Think they're in the playoffs right now and it appears this series is 3-0 Bakken. Last 3 games is a combined 45 points under the posted totals. If this is a 4-game series, then this is the "quit" game in the series with a predictable drop off in points.

Total sequence: 181.5, 176.5, 176 ... now 173.5

Continually dropping and not fast enough. Books can't make such huge drops to rival the actual pace of this kind of points decline, which leaves them open for a loss; thus the total, theoretically, is still too high. Also, with games lined in the mid 170's.... a slight drop off in a quarter with no points... and the total is fucked for the over.

They've had quarters of 33, 33, 33 and 28. Recipe for disaster and over killers.
 

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Not "officially" putting this here. Just as something to keep an eye on, especially since the WNBA season is starting.

Dallas Wings are 0-12 ATS in last 12 games... from last year. New year starting. Have to take a look at the continuity and the coaching. If have the same trash coach as last year and other elements in management, they could still be a trainwreck. Also, last 12 games between Dallas and Atlanta is 11-1 for the over going back to 2014. Atlanta has been a team historically that likes to go beserk on the court and Dallas was a team that liked to give up 90 - 100 a game last year.
 

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Bakken Bears 5-0 under (Denmark)
5/13 -- 173.5 ........ 100pm EST
???
???

Easy under. Perfect situation. That was the season ender. They were down 3-0 and put up the quit. Championship won and 6-0 under streak complete.

Unfortunately, that's not a golden cow that can be milked again.


Dallas Wings are 0-12 ATS in last 12 games... from last year.

Dallas pounded by 23 points. That'd make 0-13 in last 13 if you got a line for that game.





Alytaus Dzukija 4-0 over (Lithuania) ..... (and 16-2 over last 18; had a 12-0 over streak recently)
5/14 -- 161 ........ 1145am EST
???
???
 

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Not putting these on the official list, but if you're looking for some action for Tues.

Italy, Div 2
Legnano Knights 11-2 over ********** 230pm EST *** 163
Benetton Treviso 10-2-1 under ******* 230pm EST *** 145
 

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Snapshot. All together.



Unicaja 11-0 under
(Spain)
5/11 -- 162, under = 12-0 under
5/18
5/26



Obradoiro 0-6 ATS
(Spain)5/11 -- -2.5, loss = 0-7 ATS
5/19
5/26



Southland Sharks 8-0 Over
(New Zealand)
5/11 -- 199.5, over = 9-0 over
5/17
5/19



Toyota Alvark 6-0 Under (Japan)
5/11 -- 148.5, under = 7-0 under
???
???



Alytaus Dzukija 4-0 over (Lithuania) ..... (and 16-2 over last 18; had a 12-0 over streak recently)
5/14 -- 161 ........ 1145am EST
???
???


Dallas Wings are 0-13 ATS (WNBA)

5/14 -- ??? ........ ???


Italy, Div 2 (5/14)
Legnano Knights 11-2 over ********** 230pm EST *** 163
Benetton Treviso 10-2-1 under ******* 230pm EST *** 145


 

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Missed this one.

Duzce in Turkey is 8-0 over. Currently playing in 3Q right now.
 

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159 total (89-70)

Good job on getting a good number. It opened around when 161, moved up to about 163.5 and then started plummeting before close. I always go by the official close for the records.... so it may have been an official over.

They only scored 2 points in the last 3 minutes, I believe. Always a danger with a vastly superior team (ie, 21-pt spread in this game) as the motivation will vanish at the end of a blowout.
 

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Pretty amazing for 5/14. ..... 3-0?

Alytaus over -- depending on closing lane and when you jumped in (will wait for official update later)
Legnano over -- goes over with OT. Was looking like needed close to 100 in 2H to go over.. and got it
Treviso under -- this one more amazing than the OT game. they scored just 25 in 4Q to snag the under.


Dallas game ..... not lined but didn't check everywhere
 

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Not adding to official list, but....

5/14: 5-0 ATS is Botafogo..................... Plays a little later today if you need the action.
5/15: 0-5 ATS is Hapoel Beer Sheva....... Lost last 5 games by total 96 points.
5/15: 10-2 OVER is Maccabi Ashdod.
5/15: 9-1 OVER is Oberwart Gunners.

 

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Snapshot. Taking Dallas off list. Covered today but will throw them in once they produce activity for this year. Removed Toyota b/c their season ended and thus their 7-0 under streak.

6 teams are legit hot. Have 2 on 5/15 that likely will be added to the collection... and they probably should be already b/c they're 19-3 (86%)



Unicaja 11-0 under
(Spain)
5/11 -- 162, under = 12-0 under
5/18
5/26


Obradoiro 0-6 ATS
(Spain)
5/11 -- -2.5, loss = 0-7 ATS
5/19
5/26


Southland Sharks 8-0 Over
(New Zealand)
5/11 -- 199.5, over = 9-0 over
5/17
5/19


Alytaus Dzukija 4-0 over (Lithuania) ..... (and 16-2 over last 18; had a 12-0 over streak recently)
5/14 -- 158.5 close = over = 5-0 and 17-2
5/16 --
???

Italy, Div 2
Legnano Knights 12-2 over
Benetton Treviso 10-3-1 under .... last game loss as dropped to 142 by close. Finished at 143. But they are definitely under hot
5/17 -- both active




5/15: 0-5 ATS is Hapoel Beer Sheva....... Lost last 5 games by total 96 points. ....... -3.5 fave
5/15: 10-2 OVER is Maccabi Ashdod................................................................... 169.5
5/15: 9-1 OVER is Oberwart Gunners................................................................. 150.5



Crazy thing is if you combine the top 4 teams and the bottom 2 ..... that's 52-3 record.
 

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