Apologies to SA series backers

wantitall4moi · May 24, 2005

Apologies for thinking they shouldn't have been such a big favorite in the series. But considering I have cashed both games of the sereis so far individually, and stil have that ticket on Pho (is for sale if anyone wants it) I am still feeling Ok for being "wrong".

But it is looking like them at -160 was actually not that big a stretch despite the debates that have been going on. But SA backers could have cashed +14o ML and +185 ML respectively in those first two games. Obviously the series is a "safer" bet the pay off for it is not close the what those individual games paid. And if SA wins game 3, and SA is looking at a sweep, will be interesting how the books post that sweeep number. Have to think Pho gets a little hedge as it is hard to sweep a team, let alone a very good team.

I figure at Pin the ML will be around -200/-220 that game.

Caesar · May 25, 2005

absolutely no need for an apology as if i remember correctly you stated based on the series odds san antonio should have been favored in phoenix and obviously that is the case........because of your first post im up 2300 and still have 2000 at +151 on phoenix for the series which can be had for a mere 200 to my neteller account (hurry as supply is limited)......ive only been doing this full time for 3 years and i never thought i would see an opportunity like the pistons last year vs the lakers but this has been pretty close......im surprised fezzik didnt put one of his 12% kelly bets on the spurs money line as the game was as close to a pick as ive ever seen yet +185 was available......this stuff is starting to get real fun.....thx for your posts...

t3a · May 25, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
.

I figure at Pin the ML will be around -200/-220 that game.

I think you are about right. Pin has game 3 at SA -5.5 and ml at -233/+213

If they get to game 4 up 3-0, I think there will be people still playing the Suns because #1 seeds are 'too good' to get swept.

WildBill · May 25, 2005

Are you kidding? A road team down 3-0 is about the worst bet out there. Home teams down 3-0 aren't bad bets, win one for the home fans. Road teams rarely have pride in that spot. I think the public would smell through that. Things looking bleak no doubt, but the series isn't over yet. A good road team getting out of the pressure cooker often does well in this spot. I am not exactly optimistic, but I am not selling my boys out yet either.

SportSavant · May 25, 2005

I wonder which way the line is gonna move off of the 5.5....

if you like the SUNS (in game 3), what does ur gut say? take em now? or later?

WildBill · May 25, 2005

Good question. I don't think they have a lot of public backers, but the line seems a bit high. No doubt everyone knows about that 31-10 road record. Probably settles in right at 5.5, maybe goes up to 6.

jwblue · May 25, 2005

I think the line goes to 6. Suns just got swept at home.

IS

WHALE · May 25, 2005

Suns !

arty:

Seymour · May 25, 2005

Wild Bill you are the classic homer - yes, the series is not over yet - but the reason it is not over yet is because rules mandate the Spurs beat the Suns two more times - in theory, it is not over - in reality, it is over - 4-0, 4-1 or 4-2 the series was unofficially over last night - the Suns can't play any better - Nash and Stoudamire are playing amazing and Bowen can totally eliminate Marion 8 days a week - the Suns defense could not afford to let Parker go to the rim all game.

wantitall4moi · May 25, 2005

From a "handicapping" standpoint, this is a difficult series to get a handle on. Pho has basically had both tose games won and somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. they came back from down a bit in that game to take a DD lead AGAIN, and blew it. They seemingly had Game one in hand as well only to blow that one late too.

But as far as the series itself goes, I have t think it is pretty close to being over. All that guys who bought pho can do is hope Pho wins 2 on the orad in their own right. Maybe betting them on the spread in Game 4 or even the ML if they are down 3-0.

But then again from the conspiracy side, if Det looks to swep Miami then the NBA might forego this round to get to the finals. Generally they like to see the series go longer. The calls last night on Duncan showed that the refs were trying to get Pho the win, they just couldn't do it.

Also I love how Pin has overinflated the ML on a 5.5 fave. Generally speaking a 5.5 home fave with them is -200/-215. But they have SA -250. So IMO that game isn't bettable right now. Especially how the series has played out so far. Hope Pho wins, but betting on them, even at +230 is a tough pill to swallow.

WildBill · May 25, 2005

The real secret to what happens the rest of the way is how effective Joe Johnson is. If he can just come off the bench and play 15 effective minutes, that would be a shift in the balance of power here. Before the series started I said both teams are just about equal and I don't think the first two games proved me to be wrong on that. The Spurs got the shots to fall at the end of both games. Sign of a great team of course, but not a sign that they are just way ahead of the Suns.

Is the series over? Of course not. The Suns have a long way to go and without a doubt must win on Saturday. If they do though, the complexion of the series changes a lot. Teams sometimes just need a win to get things rolling and often that sort of win comes on the road where the pressure is lighter and a team can play looser. Its going to be tough though, I agree, to pull it out. The Suns might even win two in SA and still could easily lose the series.

I am not a homer, just very realistic. I have said what would beat the Suns and so far it has proven to be true. They get beat when teams put offensive pressure on them, started by offensive rebounds. The Spurs have done exactly what they needed to do. Everyone was thinking they would try to play games in the 90s and then the Suns couldn't beat them, but I said many times that won't beat the Suns. Besides I am happy in one way, I have won two overs so far...

Seymour · May 25, 2005

Wild Bill, Joe Johnson? Who is he? I think the real key to the series is Glenn Robinson and Devin Brown - if they can get back on the floor everything changes - seriously, nobody beats SA in SA - I think they lost twice - and the Suns are now 0-4 against the Spurs this year - they have not beaten them once and beating SA with Duncan and Manu does not remotely qualify - can the Suns win one game - maybe and then they'll lose game 4 and its over - they have now beaten SA once this year but the series is not over? The Suns have a nice future they just need to add some densive toughness down the road. They consistently let 6-1 Parker walk to the rim - at least fould him hard like Seattle did. If Stoudamire develops actual low post moves he could go down as the next Tim Duncan - he already scores 40 a game with no real signature moves - they guy is an athletic freak with a great touch.

Rainbow · May 25, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
From a "handicapping" standpoint, this is a difficult series to get a handle on. Pho has basically had both tose games won and somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. they came back from down a bit in that game to take a DD lead AGAIN, and blew it. They seemingly had Game one in hand as well only to blow that one late too.

But as far as the series itself goes, I have t think it is pretty close to being over. All that guys who bought pho can do is hope Pho wins 2 on the orad in their own right. Maybe betting them on the spread in Game 4 or even the ML if they are down 3-0.

But then again from the conspiracy side, if Det looks to swep Miami then the NBA might forego this round to get to the finals. Generally they like to see the series go longer. The calls last night on Duncan showed that the refs were trying to get Pho the win, they just couldn't do it.

Also I love how Pin has overinflated the ML on a 5.5 fave. Generally speaking a 5.5 home fave with them is -200/-215. But they have SA -250. So IMO that game isn't bettable right now. Especially how the series has played out so far. Hope Pho wins, but betting on them, even at +230 is a tough pill to swallow.

How do you figure that Phoenix had game #1 in hand, I guess we watched two different games, the Spurs had POUNDS the best team in game #1, not even close complete DOMINATION...

wantitall4moi · May 25, 2005

They allowed 43 points in the 4th and blew a pretty decent lead. i wouldn't call that being dominated, I would call it being out played in the last few minutes, a lot like last night.

Rainbow · May 25, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
They allowed 43 points in the 4th and blew a pretty decent lead. i wouldn't call that being dominated, I would call it being out played in the last few minutes, a lot like last night.

I thought the Spurs led that game by 10 at the end of the 1st QTR and by 6 at the half, the game I looked at Phoenix was beaten the WHOLE 4th QTR just like the 1ST QTR. when you say late, how many minutes were left in the game when Phoenix had a decent league, I am real curious to know...

t3a · May 30, 2005

WildBill said:
Are you kidding? A road team down 3-0 is about the worst bet out there. Home teams down 3-0 aren't bad bets, win one for the home fans. Road teams rarely have pride in that spot. I think the public would smell through that.

it looks like a lot of people still believed in the Suns, even down 0-3

WildBill · May 31, 2005

Suns surprised me. I didn't expect such a total effort after the lack of focus they showed in Game 3. I didn't even watch most of the game as I was driving home from San Diego.

Joe Johnson was the key and will be the key for as long as the Suns are still playing. He really is such a crucial piece to holding the team together because Nash can't play over 40 minutes and be effective, especially having to chase Parker around. Even better by taking on Parker he makes life easier because Parker was the real reason the Spurs were up 3-0. Without him the Suns would have won at least one more game up to this point.

Apologies to SA series backers

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