My gut feeling is that if you play totals with positive shades, you will make money long term.
Example: Total opens on Braves/Mets at 8, -110 on both sides. For whatever reason, a half hour before the game starts, the book still has the number at 8, but it's +110 over and -130 under.
I say take the +110 everytime and over the long run you will make money.
I have been playing this "system" all season. Started out very well, but since May 5th, I've gone 51-77. Yesterday was horrible: Bet all 15 games and went 2-11-2. I am now 12 games under .500 on the season. 94-106 is the W-L record. 47% winners.
Money wise, I am exactly dead even as of this morning. It appears to be a break even gig, but the sample size is very small.
Anyone ever try playing this "sytem"? Any thoughts as to why it will or will not work? I suspect I would need a four year sample before I would know for certain if the shading is accurate or not. I just noticed last year, when I played the over in the Orioles games every single day, the shading seemd to have no effect on whether I won or lost. In fact, I won more positive shades (+110 & +115's) than I did negative shades (-120 & -125's).
Thanks,
Books Worst Enemy
Example: Total opens on Braves/Mets at 8, -110 on both sides. For whatever reason, a half hour before the game starts, the book still has the number at 8, but it's +110 over and -130 under.
I say take the +110 everytime and over the long run you will make money.
I have been playing this "system" all season. Started out very well, but since May 5th, I've gone 51-77. Yesterday was horrible: Bet all 15 games and went 2-11-2. I am now 12 games under .500 on the season. 94-106 is the W-L record. 47% winners.
Money wise, I am exactly dead even as of this morning. It appears to be a break even gig, but the sample size is very small.
Anyone ever try playing this "sytem"? Any thoughts as to why it will or will not work? I suspect I would need a four year sample before I would know for certain if the shading is accurate or not. I just noticed last year, when I played the over in the Orioles games every single day, the shading seemd to have no effect on whether I won or lost. In fact, I won more positive shades (+110 & +115's) than I did negative shades (-120 & -125's).
Thanks,
Books Worst Enemy
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