AL bullpen workloads
Two months into last season, you could see that the bullpens for the Giants and Yankees were going to run into problems down the stretch. Like marathoners going too fast in the first five miles, Felipe Alou and Joe Torre pushed their primary relievers very hard in April and May.
On the other hand, Texas manager Buck Showalter and pitching coach Orel Hershiser were extremely disciplined in how they handled their bullpen – particularly closer Francisco Cordero, who never threw in more than 12 games in any month, and finished the year with 67 games. And it was probably not a coincidence that over the course of the season, the Rangers had one of the best bullpens in the majors, finishing with a 3.46 ERA.
Two months into this season, we see similar trends developing around baseball. Roberto Hernandez pitched exceptionally for the Mets early in the season, and he's struggled in the last couple of weeks, which is not surprising: He's 40 years old, and because of the way he's being used, he's on a pace to rack up 83 appearances – which would break his career high by nine games – and 80.1 innings, which would be the third most innings in any season in his 15-year career.
Translated: There is an excellent chance he's going to run out of gas, assuming that regression hasn't already started. Yesterday, I talked to an executive who figures that the Mets need to start establishing Aaron Heilman in a seventh- and eighth-inning role immediately, because Hernandez may not last.
Some of the many early pitching injuries may inadvertently help some relievers, over the course of the season. Eric Gagne, for example, was taxed heavily in the last two months last year and broke down; this year, his season has effectively been reduced to 4½ months, which might help him this August and September.
Here are some numbers for early-season bullpen loads among the expected American League contenders (with apologies to Toronto):
* White Sox: They're in good shape, with Dustin Hermanson on pace for 65 appearances and 73.1 innings. Manager Ozzie Guillen has spread out the work load among his primary relievers.
* Orioles: B.J. Ryan currently is on track to accumulate 90 innings in 90 appearances; his career high is 76 appearances. Along the same lines, Jorge Julio is working on a pace that will take him to 77 games and 83.1 innings; he's never had more than 67 games, or 69 innings. Not good.
* Yankees: Torre actually had problems finding situations for Mariano Rivera to pitch in the first five weeks, and this should help down the stretch. Once again, the Yankees are leaning heavily on Tom Gordon, who faded in September and crumbled in October; right now, Gordon is on pace to pitch in 85 games – that would be a career high – and accumulate 79.1 relief innings, which would match the second-highest total of his career. Gordon, remember, is 37 years old.
* Red Sox: Terry Francona has been fairly conservative in his deployment of closer Keith Foulke, probably in part because of how poorly he has pitched. Right now, Foulke is on track for 76 innings, which would be the fewest he's thrown since 1998. After his yeoman work last October, Foulke deserves a break. Mike Timlin is on track for 76 innings, a nice steady pace for him; in the same way, Matt Mantei and Alan Embree have not been pushed hard. That may bode well for the last months.
* Twins: If Joe Nathan is still throwing in the mid-90s in late September and into October, he can thank Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson for not overusing him early in the year. Right now, Nathan is on track for 68.1 innings and 70 appearances, tremendous for this time of year; some teams tend to overuse their relievers coming out of spring training.
With the Twins' rotation generally performing well, none of the Minnesota primary relievers have had to throw more than 18.1 innings (going into Tuesday night's game). So far, they get an A-plus for the pace of their workload.
* Los Angeles Angels: Scot Shields has pitched as a set-up man, and now as the closer, in the absence of Rodriguez, and he's getting more than his share of work: He's on a pace for 90.1 innings. But that would actually be about 15 innings fewer than last season, and he's 29 years old; he's prepared to handle more than a Gordon or Hernandez. Brendan Donnelly is on track for 58 appearances and 72 innings, a good trend.
* Rangers: As usual, the workload has been spread out among the many Texas relievers, and again, Cordero's labor has been well-regulated: He's on track to throw 70.1 innings, over 76 appearances; that would be his fewest innings since 2002.
We'll check out the NL bullpen workload trends on Thursday.
Surgery for Loretta is Successful
# The Padres got the best possible news about second baseman Mark Loretta, who now has a chance to come back for the last weeks of the regular season. The Padres are back in first place, and Adam Eaton has seven victories already.
# The Red Sox's bullpen imploded, as Jeff Horrigan tells us, and the Blue Jays exploded, Jeff Blair reports. But the Jays got bad news about ace Roy Halladay.
# Ivan Rodriguez reiterates that his dramatic weight loss, and change in appearance, is due to an improved diet.
# The Yankees crushed a bunch of home runs and then tempers started to flare, as Bob Herzog reports. There could be more ugliness to come from the Tigers, based on the comments here. Watched some of this game and the most important thing, obscured by the fireworks, is that Mike Mussina had a very good fastball, beating hitters in the upper half of the strike zone. Anthony Rieber has more on Mussina. ... A-Rod explains in a TV interview, as reported in the Daily News, that he's in therapy. This is not a surprise: I've long thought that Rodriguez, for all of his greatness as a player and in business, is generally a very insecure person. Good for him for getting help.
# The Reds have won back-to-back games, and they got the game-winner Tuesday from the most unlikely source.
# Ron Gardenhire is breaking up his lineup and splitting his two best left-handed hitters.
# Kip Wells, whose name will soon be all over the trade rumor mill, pitched very well against the Cardinals on Tuesday, but another player who will be in the rumor mill eventually got tagged with the loss for the Pirates. Pittsburgh got bad news about a pitcher's shoulder.
# Maybe Lou Piniella has finally been conquered by the losing, as John Romano wonders. But on Tuesday, Oakland provided some relief, as Damian Cristodero reports.
# As the Mariners go nowhere this season, they are thinking about who might help them win games in the future. The Orioles' victory came at a high price for Baltimore, however, with Javy Lopez getting injured; a broken hand may keep him out until late July or August. I'll start the speculation here: The Orioles could pursue Charles Johnson, an ex-Oriole who is rotting on the bench in Tampa Bay. Brian Roberts also left Tuesday's game with an injury, but that is not considered serious.
# The Marlins are burying the Phillies, as usual; Philadelphia is headed toward a full-fledged fire sale if it doesn't figure out a way to beat the Marlins. By the way, it appears Danny Graves will land with the Marlins.
# The Mets have to start regaining some traction, too; they've got two losses in two games on a crucial seven-game road trip. Tom Glavine pitched effectively against his former teammates for most of Tuesday's game, but he still lost. Spoke with an evaluator who had seen recent reports on Scott Strickland, the veteran reliever in the minor leagues, and he says he's not surprised the Mets didn't summon Strickland. A scout who saw Strickland recently says the pitcher simply hasn't got enough velocity to come back yet – and maybe he will later.
# The Rangers' Ryan Drese continues to pitch well, despite a dugout spat with a teammate.
# Roger Clemens hasn't allowed an earned run on the road this season, but the Astros still manage to lose, in Wrigley. That makes them 2-21 on the road. The Cubs are crawling toward .500, and according to Mike Kiley, they are not talking about swapping La Troy Hawkins to the Mets.
# Mark Buehrle threw exceptionally in Chicago's victory in Anaheim Tuesday. The White Sox aren't going away. Jay Mariotti writes about the White Sox manager and interprets his rants. ... The White Sox may find a place for Brandon McCarthy in the big leagues even after he gets bumped out of the rotation. Similarly, the Angels are thinking about what options Ervin Santana might create.
# The Dodgers have dropped 12 of their last 15 games, and they are two games above .500, after losing to the Giants and Jason Schmidt Tuesday.
# And as for the Rockies: Ditto. Jeff Francis had a rough night in Milwaukee, as Troy Renck describes.
posted: May 25, 2005 5:40:43 AM PDT | Feedback
Two months into last season, you could see that the bullpens for the Giants and Yankees were going to run into problems down the stretch. Like marathoners going too fast in the first five miles, Felipe Alou and Joe Torre pushed their primary relievers very hard in April and May.
On the other hand, Texas manager Buck Showalter and pitching coach Orel Hershiser were extremely disciplined in how they handled their bullpen – particularly closer Francisco Cordero, who never threw in more than 12 games in any month, and finished the year with 67 games. And it was probably not a coincidence that over the course of the season, the Rangers had one of the best bullpens in the majors, finishing with a 3.46 ERA.
Two months into this season, we see similar trends developing around baseball. Roberto Hernandez pitched exceptionally for the Mets early in the season, and he's struggled in the last couple of weeks, which is not surprising: He's 40 years old, and because of the way he's being used, he's on a pace to rack up 83 appearances – which would break his career high by nine games – and 80.1 innings, which would be the third most innings in any season in his 15-year career.
Translated: There is an excellent chance he's going to run out of gas, assuming that regression hasn't already started. Yesterday, I talked to an executive who figures that the Mets need to start establishing Aaron Heilman in a seventh- and eighth-inning role immediately, because Hernandez may not last.
Some of the many early pitching injuries may inadvertently help some relievers, over the course of the season. Eric Gagne, for example, was taxed heavily in the last two months last year and broke down; this year, his season has effectively been reduced to 4½ months, which might help him this August and September.
Here are some numbers for early-season bullpen loads among the expected American League contenders (with apologies to Toronto):
* White Sox: They're in good shape, with Dustin Hermanson on pace for 65 appearances and 73.1 innings. Manager Ozzie Guillen has spread out the work load among his primary relievers.
* Orioles: B.J. Ryan currently is on track to accumulate 90 innings in 90 appearances; his career high is 76 appearances. Along the same lines, Jorge Julio is working on a pace that will take him to 77 games and 83.1 innings; he's never had more than 67 games, or 69 innings. Not good.
* Yankees: Torre actually had problems finding situations for Mariano Rivera to pitch in the first five weeks, and this should help down the stretch. Once again, the Yankees are leaning heavily on Tom Gordon, who faded in September and crumbled in October; right now, Gordon is on pace to pitch in 85 games – that would be a career high – and accumulate 79.1 relief innings, which would match the second-highest total of his career. Gordon, remember, is 37 years old.
* Red Sox: Terry Francona has been fairly conservative in his deployment of closer Keith Foulke, probably in part because of how poorly he has pitched. Right now, Foulke is on track for 76 innings, which would be the fewest he's thrown since 1998. After his yeoman work last October, Foulke deserves a break. Mike Timlin is on track for 76 innings, a nice steady pace for him; in the same way, Matt Mantei and Alan Embree have not been pushed hard. That may bode well for the last months.
* Twins: If Joe Nathan is still throwing in the mid-90s in late September and into October, he can thank Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson for not overusing him early in the year. Right now, Nathan is on track for 68.1 innings and 70 appearances, tremendous for this time of year; some teams tend to overuse their relievers coming out of spring training.
With the Twins' rotation generally performing well, none of the Minnesota primary relievers have had to throw more than 18.1 innings (going into Tuesday night's game). So far, they get an A-plus for the pace of their workload.
* Los Angeles Angels: Scot Shields has pitched as a set-up man, and now as the closer, in the absence of Rodriguez, and he's getting more than his share of work: He's on a pace for 90.1 innings. But that would actually be about 15 innings fewer than last season, and he's 29 years old; he's prepared to handle more than a Gordon or Hernandez. Brendan Donnelly is on track for 58 appearances and 72 innings, a good trend.
* Rangers: As usual, the workload has been spread out among the many Texas relievers, and again, Cordero's labor has been well-regulated: He's on track to throw 70.1 innings, over 76 appearances; that would be his fewest innings since 2002.
We'll check out the NL bullpen workload trends on Thursday.
Surgery for Loretta is Successful
# The Padres got the best possible news about second baseman Mark Loretta, who now has a chance to come back for the last weeks of the regular season. The Padres are back in first place, and Adam Eaton has seven victories already.
# The Red Sox's bullpen imploded, as Jeff Horrigan tells us, and the Blue Jays exploded, Jeff Blair reports. But the Jays got bad news about ace Roy Halladay.
# Ivan Rodriguez reiterates that his dramatic weight loss, and change in appearance, is due to an improved diet.
# The Yankees crushed a bunch of home runs and then tempers started to flare, as Bob Herzog reports. There could be more ugliness to come from the Tigers, based on the comments here. Watched some of this game and the most important thing, obscured by the fireworks, is that Mike Mussina had a very good fastball, beating hitters in the upper half of the strike zone. Anthony Rieber has more on Mussina. ... A-Rod explains in a TV interview, as reported in the Daily News, that he's in therapy. This is not a surprise: I've long thought that Rodriguez, for all of his greatness as a player and in business, is generally a very insecure person. Good for him for getting help.
# The Reds have won back-to-back games, and they got the game-winner Tuesday from the most unlikely source.
# Ron Gardenhire is breaking up his lineup and splitting his two best left-handed hitters.
# Kip Wells, whose name will soon be all over the trade rumor mill, pitched very well against the Cardinals on Tuesday, but another player who will be in the rumor mill eventually got tagged with the loss for the Pirates. Pittsburgh got bad news about a pitcher's shoulder.
# Maybe Lou Piniella has finally been conquered by the losing, as John Romano wonders. But on Tuesday, Oakland provided some relief, as Damian Cristodero reports.
# As the Mariners go nowhere this season, they are thinking about who might help them win games in the future. The Orioles' victory came at a high price for Baltimore, however, with Javy Lopez getting injured; a broken hand may keep him out until late July or August. I'll start the speculation here: The Orioles could pursue Charles Johnson, an ex-Oriole who is rotting on the bench in Tampa Bay. Brian Roberts also left Tuesday's game with an injury, but that is not considered serious.
# The Marlins are burying the Phillies, as usual; Philadelphia is headed toward a full-fledged fire sale if it doesn't figure out a way to beat the Marlins. By the way, it appears Danny Graves will land with the Marlins.
# The Mets have to start regaining some traction, too; they've got two losses in two games on a crucial seven-game road trip. Tom Glavine pitched effectively against his former teammates for most of Tuesday's game, but he still lost. Spoke with an evaluator who had seen recent reports on Scott Strickland, the veteran reliever in the minor leagues, and he says he's not surprised the Mets didn't summon Strickland. A scout who saw Strickland recently says the pitcher simply hasn't got enough velocity to come back yet – and maybe he will later.
# The Rangers' Ryan Drese continues to pitch well, despite a dugout spat with a teammate.
# Roger Clemens hasn't allowed an earned run on the road this season, but the Astros still manage to lose, in Wrigley. That makes them 2-21 on the road. The Cubs are crawling toward .500, and according to Mike Kiley, they are not talking about swapping La Troy Hawkins to the Mets.
# Mark Buehrle threw exceptionally in Chicago's victory in Anaheim Tuesday. The White Sox aren't going away. Jay Mariotti writes about the White Sox manager and interprets his rants. ... The White Sox may find a place for Brandon McCarthy in the big leagues even after he gets bumped out of the rotation. Similarly, the Angels are thinking about what options Ervin Santana might create.
# The Dodgers have dropped 12 of their last 15 games, and they are two games above .500, after losing to the Giants and Jason Schmidt Tuesday.
# And as for the Rockies: Ditto. Jeff Francis had a rough night in Milwaukee, as Troy Renck describes.
posted: May 25, 2005 5:40:43 AM PDT | Feedback
