Worth Laying The Chalk

JohnnyFairPlay · May 26, 2005

Take Texas -1 1/2 laying -121 over KC

Specify Rogers and Lima. Rogers had thrown 31 scoreless innings before Friday when he allowed 3 runs in 8 innings against Houston. Lima has been horrible with an 0-3 record and an ERA of 7.36. In his last five starts, he's averaged allowing 5 runs in five innings. Combine that with Rogers outstanding record to date and Texas -1 1/2 is a great play here.

Want more? Since April 25, Teams favored -200 or more have won straight up 24 times and only lost 3. Of those 24 wins, only seven were by one run. Play the good odds and lay the -121. 71% probability of a win and cover here.

Another good play would be the Cubs -1 1/2 +103. Cubs are -213 straight up. Lay the 1 1/2 runs and go with the odds.

Good Luck!

thefawv · May 26, 2005

I think you have two winners here!!! :suomi:

GL - FawvDog :103631605

johnlee · May 26, 2005

Yeah, I haven't seen many lines that high (or low) and was very curious about the texas game. thx for the input.

JohnnyFairPlay · May 26, 2005

-200 + favorite Texas covers again. The Cubs stunk it up, but who can lay a lot of money on that hapless team? Not me. They did cost me some, but Texas made the day!

JohnnyFairPlay · May 27, 2005

Well.....wouldn't you know that Chicago makes me swear off of them after yesterday's debacle and today as a -230 favorite, they win 10-3 and cover to make the more than 200 fav 26-4 winners. All 26 by more than 1 1/2 runs except 7. So tonight with St. Louis as a -200 fav over Washington, take the Cards - 1/2 +101.

St. Louis -1 1/2 +101

Min/Tor Under 8 -115

Sea/TB Under 9 -111

Good Luck!

JohnnyFairPlay · May 28, 2005

Well....St. Louis comes up a winner -1 1/2 bringing the total wins since April 24 on teams favored by -200 or more at 27-4. What is most impressive about this run is that 20 of the 27 wins were by more than 1 1/2 runs. The other 7 were wins by 1 run. Laying 1 1/2 runs usually brings the 200+ number down to anywhere from +104 to -150, depending on how much over -200 the team is. Taking an average of -120 and betting 1 dime per game, you would have won 20,000 and lost 8,400 for a net profit of 11,600. I haven't won that much, because I didn't start trusting it until about half way into it and even still as in yesterday's Cubs debacle, I could not make myself bet on them today as a -230 fav and they killed Colorado 10-3. Plus I've been placing other bets which aren't nearly as predictable as was the totals today. Sill, my major play was the Cards so it was a prfitable day. No -200's tomorrowunless LAA, the Cubs or Florida go up some during the day. It's a great system so far. I'm just now to the point of trusting it, so I thought I'd pass it along. Good luck!

JohnnyFairPlay · May 28, 2005

My bad on the math.....20,000 in winnings and 13,200 in losses for a net profit of 6,800. Still very nice.

JohnnyFairPlay · May 28, 2005

Taking Chicago Cubs -1

Got it last night at Pinny at -132

It's -146 now.

Will be playing Florida -1 (-152) and possibly LAA later -1 run.

Good Luck!

JohnnyFairPlay · May 28, 2005

Teams favored -200 + are now 28-4 since April 24 with the Cubs win. Next play is:

Florida -1 (-152)

JohnnyFairPlay · May 29, 2005

Well.....I knew in the 4th inning when Ishii singled with two outs to score the first run, Florida was in trouble. Willis just didn't have it. He got pummeled and Florida couldn't hit their way out of a paper bag. That's been the story for them in this entire series. Unfortunatly, the Marlins are again a -200 + favorite with Beckett on the mound against Glavine. Just like the Cubs yesterday, I think Florida comes out of their batting slump today. Just in case though....I'm only gonna lay one run.

2-1 yesterday with LAA killing KC, bringing the record for -200 + favs to 29-5 with 7 of the victories by only 1 run. Still a prifitable day yesterday, but it had so much promise! Two games today:

Florida -1 -147
LAA -1 1/2 -117

Good Luck!

JohnnyFairPlay · May 30, 2005

Well....the Yankees became a play at the last minute. The line went to -200 right at game time, so they will go down as a loss. The Marlins rolled as expected, but the Angels blew a nice lead and ended up winning by one. Plays in the future will always be -1 run. It's not worth saving the chalk for the extra half run when you think about it. Granted one month is not a long time to establish an extremely reliable trend, however, the record for the past month is impressive laying one run. We will see. No games tomorrow.

Record since April 24: 30-6 (8 of 30 wins by one run)

t3a · May 30, 2005

if you have seen only 8 of the 30 by one run, you still don't think worthwhile laying the 1.5? I don't know going back over all of them but it seems it would pay off not only on the extra payout if you hit but more on the juice you save if it loses. Notwithstanding a play like the Angels of course where they blew the lead and win by 1

anyway still a good record

LucaBrasi · May 30, 2005

Johnny -

This is very interesting. Keep us up to date with it

JohnnyFairPlay · May 30, 2005

T3a....let's look at it....

At -1 1/2, instead of 6 losses, we'd have 14.

Average odds laying -1 with a -220 fav is about -150 to -160 +or- a few.

With a bet of $1000 per game with all bets equal we'd have 30 wins (+30,000) and 6 losses figuring at -165 is -9,900 for a net profit of +20,100. Not bad at all!

Average odds laying -1 1/2 runs is usually between +102 to -115. Lets use -110 with 14 losses.

Same bet is +30,000 less losses of -15,400 for a net profit of +14,600. Not bad either, but quite a bit less. You're laying a little more up front on the -1 run, but your losses over all are almost 50% less. That half run appears to make a considerable difference. I'm gonna keep playing it until I see a different trend.

Good luck today! No big favs today.

t3a · May 30, 2005

ok you convinced me, that 1/2 run does make a big difference. I'll keep that in mind if I ever want to lay the wood on one of these
:103631605

JohnnyFairPlay · May 30, 2005

OK.....one play tomorrow.

San Diego -1 -150

I'm real leary about this play because Obermueller is pitching for Milwaukee and he has been lights out over his last three starts. He's allowed just one run in 15 innings I believe. Anyway....I'm gonna play this one light, 'cause were it not for the trend here, I would be playing Milwaukee. I even looked at taking Milwaukee +1 1/2 for -115. But since I like it, it's probably a loser, so I'll go with San Diego -1 -150 light.

Good Luck!

JohnnyFairPlay · Jun 1, 2005

Another win tonight with San Diego!

Record since April 24: 31-6 (8 of 31 wins by one run)

I was cautious tonight and cost myself a few dollars.

One play tomorrow:

New York Yankees -1 -180 (This may very well go down by tomorrow afternoon. I would wait to place the bet. I will update the final odds tomorrow afternoon. Good Luck!

SportSavant · Jun 1, 2005

check it out..... Pinnacle fxcks with you on the -1 LINE......

lets use your Bet tomorrow as an example.... the odds as I post this are currently -180, so obviously, to try to win 100, one would have to put 180$ at risk.....

Now take a Look at this:

Wager Type: Straight Bet

Selection 1: MLB Baseball
New York Yankees 1-June-2005 5:10 PM PST
Spread -1.5 for Game -131
R. Johnson must start D. Carrasco must start

Risking 65.50 to Win 50.00 USD

<CENTER> --- </CENTER>Selection 2: MLB Baseball
New York Yankees 1-June-2005 5:10 PM PST
Money Line for Game -219
R. Johnson must start D. Carrasco must start

Risking 109.50 to Win 50.00 USD

Notice how to place the EXACT SAME WAGER, by placing half your bet at -1.5 & the other half on the MOney Line, (which at the end of the day is exactly like laying -1) you only have to risk 175 to win 100... 5$ Cheaper...... this is also at the SAME BOOK....

Now you can also further increase your edge by shopping your line & finding THE BEST POSSIBLE ML at Book A & the BEST POSSIBLE -1.5 line at BOOK B.

JohnnyFairPlay · Jun 1, 2005

interesting

JohnnyFairPlay · Jun 1, 2005

NYY -1 1/2 -138

Going with -1 1/2 since the line is rather high. I still have to bet it based on the past records. Bet with caution.
Good Luck!

Worth Laying The Chalk

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