Bluejays with Towers +155 Friday..anyone like this

Towers has a better Era then Santana as of late and te jays are hitting .273 against lefties and are at home...thoughts???


thanks

I'm in. Jays won same match-up last time out in Minny. Caught +158 at BetJamaica on this one. Jays have convinced me with slaughter of Bosox last couple of nights, also. This game should be +125 tops.

I agree. I am on this play big time. Jays bats are hot right now & as stated above they proved that against a quality opponent. This line will definitely come down.

thanks guys for the feedback.good luck to us.anyone else please give there comments

thanks

Dante...Jays are my "best" play today!

I thought that the Jays +55 looked too good to be true. Might it be because the public is still high on Santana, and believe that he's going snap out of his slump tonight?

I do think that the Jays are good value here.

Anyone who has read my posts knows I am a HUGE fan of playing underdogs. With that being said, I think you guys are nuts to bet the Jays in this one.

Towers is a bad pitcher. You are putting far too much weight into his early stats this year. He will end the year with an ERA over 5.00 as he always has with very few strikeouts. He showed his true colors in his last outing and I expect many more of those over his next several starts. He gave up 5 runs and 7 hits in a 9-2 loss to the Nationals in that outing and didn't even make it out of the 5th inning.

The Jays have a horrible bullpen and they will be used today.

As bad as Towers is, Santana is on the opposite extreme with how great he is. His ERA is higher than any of his previous 3 seasons and he will be back down around 3.00 or under by the end of the season. To bet against him now is tough to do. I could see it if the line were up at -220 or so where it would be if he started this season like he finished last year.

+155 doesn't seem to be much value in this one. I'll take Minnesota but wish you guys luck!

I'm on the Jays today too.

Sorry Clip but I got to disagee on a few things Towers is a good pitcher not super he's a solid pitcher and he's very underrated in his career hes' 30-25 with an ERA under 5. He may not have a lot of strikeouts but he only got 5 walks I certinly take that. I've watched him a lot this year he got some nice movement this year and he's hitting his spots, making good pitches I can see him reaching 15 wins this year. His last start vs the Nationals he was'nt getting hit hard at all just a lot of balls dropping in and finding holes.

And about the Jays bullpen this is the best bullpen they've had since winning those world series the pen got an ERA under 4 and 2.31 in they're last 10 games the pen also had a streak earlier the year of something like 13 or 14 innings without giving up a hit.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width=772 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#aaaaa4><TD align=left>Season</TD><TD align=right> TM</TD><TD align=right> G</TD><TD align=right> GS</TD><TD align=right> CG</TD><TD align=right> SHO</TD><TD align=right> IP</TD><TD align=right> H</TD><TD align=right> R</TD><TD align=right> ER</TD><TD align=right> HR</TD><TD align=right> BB</TD><TD align=right> SO</TD><TD align=right> W</TD><TD align=right> L</TD><TD align=right> SV</TD><TD align=right>HLD</TD><TD align=right>BLSV</TD><TD align=right> ERA</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ecece4><TD align=left>2001</TD><TD align=right>Bal</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>140.1</TD><TD align=right>165</TD><TD align=right>74</TD><TD align=right>70</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>58</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>--</TD><TD align=right>4.49</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ccccc4><TD align=left>2002</TD><TD align=right>Bal</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>27.1</TD><TD align=right>42</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>--</TD><TD align=right>7.90</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ecece4><TD align=left>2003</TD><TD align=right>Tor</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>64.1</TD><TD align=right>67</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>32</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>42</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4.48</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ccccc4><TD align=left>2004</TD><TD align=right>Tor</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>116.1</TD><TD align=right>148</TD><TD align=right>70</TD><TD align=right>66</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>51</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>--</TD><TD align=right>5.11</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ecece4><TD align=left>2005</TD><TD align=right>Tor</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>52.2</TD><TD align=right>56</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>--</TD><TD align=right>3.76</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#aaaaa4><TD align=left>Total</TD><TD align=right>--</TD><TD align=right>73</TD><TD align=right>61</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>401.0</TD><TD align=right>478</TD><TD align=right>226</TD><TD align=right>214</TD><TD align=right>69</TD><TD align=right>59</TD><TD align=right>197</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>25</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4.80</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



His ERA is under 5.00 for his career (4.80), but that is mainly because of his rookie year when he was with Baltimore when he threw 140 innings. He is not the same pitcher in my opinion.

Their bullpen is very similar to Tower in my opinion. They have overachieved so far this season. I would never feel comfortable going to the pen:

Walker has a 1.42 ERA this season but is a career 4.38 ERA pitcher.
Batista has a 1.77 ERA this season but is a career 4.42 ERA pitcher.

The rest of their pen hasn't done anything to write home about. I would bet money that all 3 of these pitchers mentioned end the season with an ERA closer to their career ERA's than their current ones. Just my opinion though.

1) Jays have momentum

2) Jays have home field

3) Price is right on the Jays

4) Towers has been HOT this year, one must go by most recent statistics.... projecting what a Pitchers future may hold is counter productive....

5) Sanata's confidence has been shaken & he has been hit this year

6) Jays bats have been hitting well this year aswell....

7) Baseball is a 'STREAKY' game (Jays have won 3 in a row)....


Of course the fact that the entire board seems to like the Jays worries me, further to that, the fact that the line movement has been stagnent worries me aswell,, personally, I would feel better with my TORONTO +160 play right now if the price was moving in my Favor, but it seems to be standing still***

Santana may very well pitch a GEM, we all know he can do it of course, but that is an expensive price to pay against a team that still beleives that they can win & that they are a contender.... especially after Sweeping the Bo Sox

I'll bet on any pitcher that has 5 walks in 53 IP. 33/5 SO/BB ratio. And getting in the +150's for him? Those are phenomenal stats. He isn't giving any free passes and the Twins will have to earn every base runner and every run on the road. Too much has to go right for Johan today, on the road, with a Twins team thats struggling to score runs, and Toronto is swining some hot bats.

Johan is the better pitcher though, and has the capability to go CG shutout. So, I wouldn't load up on it, but I'd play it. But I'm not unless bucsfan is.

It is interesting to me that so many people were able to lay -200 on a pitcher like Zambrano with no offensive support and a terrible bullpen...then the next day the most dominant pitcher in baseball is available at -165 with one of the best bullpen's in baseball and they find value on the dog.

I am not knocking anyone's opinion, I just find it interesting. Shows what a crazy world baseball is and how everyone has a different way of making their picks.

lol.... i woudnt have touched the cubs with a 10 foot pole at that price yesterday either....

very rarely will I lay more than -150, unless I am following a very well respected capper who has proven themselves with these types of winners....

CLIP, if the JAYS were currently struggling, perhaps having been beaten bad by the BO SOX, it might be different, are you accounting for the current momentum this Jays team has?

sounds like you are placing your argument solely on a pitcher vs pitcher reasoning, much more too this situation than the pitchers... no?

I don't think I am basing it solely on pitching, but that definitely plays a major role in this matchup for me. Getting Santana at less than -200 deserves a look everytime in my opinion. You would never find a line like this for him last year and I don't believe he is any different of a pitcher this year.

Bullpens play a major role for me as well and I don't think there is any doubt the Jays bullpen will play a role in this game.

I think the Jays get the advantage from an offensive standpoint, but not against Santana. I'll take the Minnesota offensive lineup against Towers in a big way compared to Toronto's offensive lineup against Santana. The bullpen advantage goes to Minnesota in a big way as well.

I hate eating chalk and rarely do it, but getting Santana at this price is a gem in my opinion. Can you imagine Randy Johnson in his prime at this price? The Twins are a great all around team that have been picked by many to have a shot at the World Series this year. That isn't based solely on having one good starting pitcher.

SportSavant said:

CLIP, if the JAYS were currently struggling, perhaps having been beaten bad by the BO SOX, it might be different, are you accounting for the current momentum this Jays team has?

Click to expand...

The Red Sox are 12-15 on the road this year. While I was surprised they were able to unload on the Sox like they did, it doesn't give them too much more credibility in my eyes. This is still a team that is 13-10 at home (Minnesota is also 13-10 on the road).

Tampa Bay laid it on Boston while they were at home too if I am not mistaken (I could be wrong), but that didn't make me jump on the Tampa Bay bandwagon.

I feel bullpens are just as important, if not, more important than starting pitching. Most games aren't blowouts, and they are decided at the end. Projecting how a teams bullpen will pitch is the most important capping tool I'm starting to think.

Bullpens are an aspect most recreational players never take into account. Betting solely based on starting pitchers or big name offensive players is where most square money goes.

Relating that to this game though...the edge in the starting pitching is a HUGE edge to Minnesota. The bullpen is a HUGE edge to Minnesota...and offensively, I would even give the edge to Minnesota based on today's matchups.

That doesn't mean it is a guaranteed winner...but as I mentioned before, getting Minnesota with Santana pitching at less than -200 against an average team is almost unheard of.

Santana is the man...can't remember the last time I bet against him...but let's nail this game! I love it...The Jays seem to be playing really good "Team" baseball...


Repeat: " Let's NAIL this game"

WAR EAGLE,
---Chef Zeke---

let me pose this....doesn't the fact that everyone has this game pegged as their "favorite" underdog scare ya a little?? Santana has had a few bad starts now, I think everyone told themselves after his last loss to find value against hiim next start. Now Toronto sweeps the red sox and come out as a juicy underdog.....I honestly think the TWINS WIN...vegas is smart

Clip Joint said:

Bullpens are an aspect most recreational players never take into account. Betting solely based on starting pitchers or big name offensive players is where most square money goes.

Relating that to this game though...the edge in the starting pitching is a HUGE edge to Minnesota. The bullpen is a HUGE edge to Minnesota...and offensively, I would even give the edge to Minnesota based on today's matchups.

That doesn't mean it is a guaranteed winner...but as I mentioned before, getting Minnesota with Santana pitching at less than -200 against an average team is almost unheard of.

Click to expand...

Definitely. But all of that is factored into the line FOR THE MOST PART. Now it's up to the long-term bettor to make a decision. Over the long haul, is it worth it for me to put my money on the home team with a pitcher who has 6 walks this whole year at +150 against a team that isn't that much better than them against an ace that is struggling to duplicate last years performance and hes on the road? Answer is yes, IMO.

Does it scare me that everyone has this as their favorite pick of the day? Yes. But value is value.