An interesting question...

WildBill · May 27, 2005

This came up from a relative newcomer to my sports betting group's bi-monthly gatherings. He is still learning about steam and moves, syndicates and all. He posed this simple question:

If a book with a decent amount of clients said they would charge -120 juice on NFL bets, but promise never to move a number unless of an injury, would they be able to make money?

We all thought about that one and came up with about 3 angles on it. Would like to hear the thoughts of the Rx crowd.

sportsadvisory · May 27, 2005

WildBill said:
This came up from a relative newcomer to my sports betting group's bi-monthly gatherings. He is still learning about steam and moves, syndicates and all. He posed this simple question:

If a book with a decent amount of clients said they would charge -120 juice on NFL bets, but promise never to move a number unless of an injury, would they be able to make money?

We all thought about that one and came up with about 3 angles on it. Would like to hear the thoughts of the Rx crowd.

They better have a VERY sharp opening number..............every time.

Doug · May 27, 2005

No, I don't think they would make money. Who would play at -120, unless the line moved thru the 3 or 7 ? They'd have one-sided action. Their number would have to be better than Pinny's number, they'd be vulnerable to middles and scalps, and Pinny usually wins those . They'd lose their customer base.

Horseshoe · May 27, 2005

They better be an extremely low limits book, one that sharks do not deem worth their time, and even then they still would have games that get incredibly sided.

They better put out their numbers very late in the week/gameday, after the smoke clears.

I also agree with Doug, they would be deemed a "gadget book", thus only played when in obvious disposition that -1.20 was now stealing due to changes in line or circumstance.

Make money?..maybe..depending on many variables.

Have any real allure or market?..seriously doubtful..depending mostly on limits and offerings.

WildBill · May 27, 2005

Good thoughts so far. We weren't really looking at the "allure" of it, just the theoretical. In other words if you got the extra juice out of bettors with every bet, would it still be profitable because NFL numbers are fairly sharp to begin with? Or to put it another way, are the moves on the NFL sharp enough to cover 55% of the time?

THE SHRINK · May 27, 2005

Even all the syndicates and sharpies I know have difficulty beating the NFL consistently. Some do but others don't...

With this in mind, I do believe you'd make money with your above scenario given how much volume is generated by squares...

If all wise guy money, I wouldn't touch it though...

If it's about an even split of sharpies and squares with volume wagered, count me in!

THE SHRINK

CAPNCRUNCH · May 27, 2005

WB: They would get crushed! Would only get action on the games that have moved more than a point and would turn squares into wiseguys. Nobody could bankroll it either, okay maybe Bill Gates.:lolBIG:

Rainbow · May 27, 2005

1. If you opened Monday for Sunday's games, you might last two weeks if you are lucky.
2. If you opened in the middle of the week you would still get crucified.
3. If you opened the day of the game you still couldn't over come it, because that's when you usually get the Syndicates plays.
4. I dont think you would last half the season.
5. If you had a full head of hair you would be bald from pulling your hair out.

CAPNCRUNCH · May 27, 2005

Rainbow said:
1. If you opened Monday for Sunday's games, you might last two weeks if you are lucky.
2. If you opened in the middle of the week you would still get crucified.
3. If you opened the day of the game you still couldn't over come it, because that's when you usually get the Syndicates plays.
4. I dont think you would last half the season.
5. If you had a full head of hair you would be bald from pulling your hair out.

Too funny RB! (But correct!):lolBIG:

arty:

TheGeneral+ · May 27, 2005

Talking about some serious sweating. To much one sided action to deal with. Pulling hair is an understatement. May as well lie a shotgun beside you. May turn out to be the best option sooner than later IMO.

ClipJoint · May 27, 2005

They wouldn't get a single bet until the line moved at Pinnacle or another respected shop. Then they would get hammered all on one side.

Tulsa · May 27, 2005

WildBill said:
This came up from a relative newcomer to my sports betting group's bi-monthly gatherings...

My sports betting group's bi-monthly gatherings all start with, "Hi, my name is...."

You got me thinking, Wildbill: the anwer would come by answering why books move the lines in the first place. tulsa

Rainbow · May 27, 2005

Tulsa said:
My sports betting group's bi-monthly gatherings all start with, "Hi, my name is...."

You got me thinking, Wildbill: the anwer would come by answering why books move the lines in the first place. tulsa

Key injuries is a must to move the line...

Tulsa · May 27, 2005

I apologize: I mean why books move the lines other than for 'key injury' reasons. By answering why books move the lines, we would be able to deduce whether or not it is possible to make money as a book by having a fixed line. tulsa

Rainbow · May 27, 2005

Tulsa said:
I apologize: I mean why books move the lines other than for 'key injury' reasons. By answering why books move the lines, we would be able to deduce whether or not it is possible to make money as a book by having a fixed line. tulsa

I dont think you would have no chance to stay in the money if you froze the lines. I can remember in the early 1990's this CUBAN book in Miami would freeze their lines from 7:30pm EST till 8:00pm EST fot the NBA they went off like a roman candle.

Tulsa · May 27, 2005

Right. So, if the book fixed the lines, as Rainbow and others have pointed out, they would get LOTS of business. They might win a couple, but all it would take would be a loss or two and DONE. Books have to keep the lines moving. tulsa

Fezzik · May 27, 2005

Move to September, and it's raining sideways in Jax due to the hurricane coming in.

Bombing in Under 41 bets -120, Pinny has Under 37 -114.

CRUNCH!

"Captain Freedom to Wardrobe Please"

TTinCO · May 27, 2005

I'd have to say NO WAY. The 3's & 7's would kill them......just a matter of time-and probably not that much time.

WildBill · May 27, 2005

I appreciate the comments, but no one has really taken on the root consideration here. How good are moves on NFL games? I think this is the main consideration.

My answer last night was as long as the theoretical book put in provisions avoiding the numbers 3 and 7 I think they could win. I don't think NFL moves are tremendously sharp and the abundance of dead numbers provides additional protection. Further tons of sharp people out there, but not too many beat the NFL for 55% or better. If this was any other sport, especially a daily sport where mistake lines get posted I agree the book gets lit up. But this is the NFL here, where solid lines aren't hard to figure out and the time factor could also protect a book just by posting numbers on late Tuesday.

Rainbow · May 27, 2005

WildBill said:
I appreciate the comments, but no one has really taken on the root consideration here. How good are moves on NFL games? I think this is the main consideration.

My answer last night was as long as the theoretical book put in provisions avoiding the numbers 3 and 7 I think they could win. I don't think NFL moves are tremendously sharp and the abundance of dead numbers provides additional protection. Further tons of sharp people out there, but not too many beat the NFL for 55% or better. If this was any other sport, especially a daily sport where mistake lines get posted I agree the book gets lit up. But this is the NFL here, where solid lines aren't hard to figure out and the time factor could also protect a book just by posting numbers on late Tuesday.

Let me know if you know anybody that's thinking about doing it, because they can win more than a WELLS FARGO can hold...