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LA Clippers Junkie
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I was having a discussion in the baseball forum which brought up a subject that I would like to get your opinion on.

Public opinion obviously factors in to how a line is set. But I honestly believe that this does not play near the role it use to simply because the guys that are setting the lines (Pinnacle, Olympic, CRIS, etc) are dealing with as much (if not more) sharp action as they are square action. If they inflate these lines too much, they would get hammered.

With online betting and the ability to have movers, beards, etc. compared to when it was easier to monitor sharp plays, it seems to me their perceived bets would be more important than the public's which didn't use to be the case.

The offshore industry has taken a lot of the value in dogs away (even though I still believe it is better in the long run than playing favorites).

Would you agree or disagree?
 

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Clip Joint said:
I was having a discussion in the baseball forum which brought up a subject that I would like to get your opinion on.

Public opinion obviously factors in to how a line is set. But I honestly believe that this does not play near the role it use to simply because the guys that are setting the lines (Pinnacle, Olympic, CRIS, etc) are dealing with as much (if not more) sharp action as they are square action. If they inflate these lines too much, they would get hammered.

With online betting and the ability to have movers, beards, etc. compared to when it was easier to monitor sharp plays, it seems to me their perceived bets would be more important than the public's which didn't use to be the case.

The offshore industry has taken a lot of the value in dogs away (even though I still believe it is better in the long run than playing favorites).

Would you agree or disagree?

thats exactly why you need a local. they still deal 95% to losers who bet the favorite and the over.

i can't tell you how many times i bet an nfl game with my local that he has +3 when the world is +2.5

same in bases. hoops is where i really get him. he is way, way off on those because he cant keep up with the moves.
 

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I could write an entire book on this subject and not cover all the angles your question entails.......even with the help of the sharpest of the sharpest by my side.

Let me begun by saying that the ONLINE world has produced an environment that enables NUMEROUS wiseguys/sharps to cover ALL shops with a simple click of the mouse compared to the days of playing with locals and/or doing it legally on the streets of Vegas.

In Vegas in the mid 80's and early 90's one could roam the streets and/or hangout at a specific sportsbook and snare absolutely beautiful numbers on the underdogs.

How does one rate the players getting sharper and sharper everyday through such venues as the RX forums and others compared to all the NEWBIES that are just learning about wagering???

The lines are so much sharper today than 20 years ago in practically every sport.

If you have followed such popular betting options such as NBA totals, or something less common such as NASCAR match-ups, one can see how the times have changed on this side of the counter in the last 20 years.

I personally will continue to believe the value will be there in underdogs........... SPECIFICALLY THE NFL, just because of the masses that are drawn to the sport for wagering purposes.

Personally, I have every intention of continuing to wager underdogs almost exclusively in every sport that I wager on, as I DEFINETLY believe the value will be on that side for years to come............however small it may be over the favorite.

Overall however, I would probably make the assumption that underdogs do not represent the same VALUE perse as they did 10+ years ago.............sorry to say.

As mentioned, there can be so many theories behind this question, and I am sure many here will give a very detailed explanation on their own personal theories...................and when they do, perhaps it will be easier for me to comment on those specifics they bring about.

-F-
 

in your heart, you know i'm right
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Journeyman said:
Blue have you destroyed that local yet? I wish I had one I could work.

$200 max bet so, it would take years to destroy him. i am friends with his cousin. he tells me that i am the only one who ever wins. this bookie is doing fine. i am just taking the crumbs.

i talked to him after the superbowl...12 guys and i was the only guy on the eagles +7

:lolBIG:
 

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Journeyman said:
Blue have you destroyed that local yet? I wish I had one I could work.

Jman you ever have a local around here? I had one a few years back based a little closer to DC but he left when offshore sportsbooks were introduced.
 

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The problem with finding answers to these types of threads is posters tend to see things from one perspective, player. Talking about certain books, turning over locals and old anecdotal stories ( which I admit to being the biggest culprit) doesnt give the whole truth.

Anyone who has any Bookmaking experience will tell you, if a Bookie knows his trade then he also knows his clients. Some of the odds people post on here from so-called locals are a joke, and if true would mean a very quick death indeed for the man. Offering over the odds is only given to known losers, sharper clients are accomadated if one can earn on a hedge or good inside info, if not, hasta la whatever. Bookmaking is all about building up a solid base of mug punters, who dont care what the price is and reading between the lines with the other clients.
 

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winbet said:
The problem with finding answers to these types of threads is posters tend to see things from one perspective, player. Talking about certain books, turning over locals and old anecdotal stories ( which I admit to being the biggest culprit) doesnt give the whole truth.

Anyone who has any Bookmaking experience will tell you, if a Bookie knows his trade then he also knows his clients. Some of the odds people post on here from so-called locals are a joke, and if true would mean a very quick death indeed for the man. Offering over the odds is only given to known losers, sharper clients are accomadated if one can earn on a hedge or good inside info, if not, hasta la whatever. Bookmaking is all about building up a solid base of mug punters, who dont care what the price is and reading between the lines with the other clients.

my guy does well because he has loser clients. they bet the fav and the over pretty much all the time. he is too lazy to keep up with line moves so i kill him in hoops. he doesnt care because he has a $200 max bet and 11 other guys who lose and dont even know what the internet is.
 

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