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J-Man Rx NFL Pick 4 Champion for 2005
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I usually follow your picks as You are the Man ! I have a question on the Cinn game as you are taking a 2 unit play on Pitt I have noted that Milton has a decent era at home of 3.55 and baa of .245 However away from home his era is 11.84 and baa of an incredible .374 Since He is at home today, It seems like the big advantage for Pitts doesn't exist today. Do you take into account these type of stats ?
 

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kermit16 said:
I usually follow your picks as You are the Man ! I have a question on the Cinn game as you are taking a 2 unit play on Pitt I have noted that Milton has a decent era at home of 3.55 and baa of .245 However away from home his era is 11.84 and baa of an incredible .374 Since He is at home today, It seems like the big advantage for Pitts doesn't exist today. Do you take into account these type of stats ?


Yes, Kermit, i take everything into effect......

But as i have tried to explain on different occasions, i cap a little different than most....you see that Milton is good at home, vs. lefties, etc. whatever, but you must realize the LINESMAKERS have this info as well......so on a normal day, pitt might be -130, but since Milton has those stats, the line is (+100) or whatever the numbers are....I look for the best value that i can find.....therefore i find Williams going against the Reds (+100), good value...I feel the advantage of Milton pitching isnt worth the (-30) and feel that Pitt is the "value" play......now they very well may lose 10-2, but its just the way i cap and look for value in plays....

So to sum it up, the linesmakers have all the info we have, so my job is to see if they have "overvalued" or "undervalued" that info they have, and when i think they have overvalued i take the opp side, and when they have undervalued, i jump on that side....

Thanks for the question though....hope to keep the good start to today rolling..
 

J-Man Rx NFL Pick 4 Champion for 2005
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bucsfan67 said:
Yes, Kermit, i take everything into effect......

But as i have tried to explain on different occasions, i cap a little different than most....you see that Milton is good at home, vs. lefties, etc. whatever, but you must realize the LINESMAKERS have this info as well......so on a normal day, pitt might be -130, but since Milton has those stats, the line is (+100) or whatever the numbers are....I look for the best value that i can find.....therefore i find Williams going against the Reds (+100), good value...I feel the advantage of Milton pitching isnt worth the (-30) and feel that Pitt is the "value" play......now they very well may lose 10-2, but its just the way i cap and look for value in plays....

So to sum it up, the linesmakers have all the info we have, so my job is to see if they have "overvalued" or "undervalued" that info they have, and when i think they have overvalued i take the opp side, and when they have undervalued, i jump on that side....

Thanks for the question though....hope to keep the good start to today rolling..
Whatever you have been doing ... Keep it up ! You will get no argument from me !
 

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kermit16 said:
Whatever you have been doing ... Keep it up ! You will get no argument from me !

Well we got it easily Kermit, hope u had it as well, buddy...:103631605
 

J-Man Rx NFL Pick 4 Champion for 2005
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bucsfan67 said:
Well we got it easily Kermit, hope u had it as well, buddy...:103631605
I'm not going the opposite way of the Master ! I'm a little slow but not outright stupid ! Keep up the good work and pick out your own restuarant at Vegas Bash
I have won 13 out of the last 14 days mostly because of you my baseball garu !
 

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