I never bet teams favored by 1 1/2 runs. I would rather lay 1 run and get a tie when a team wins by 1 rather than lose. Last night 7 out of 10 games won by 1 run and another one won by 2. I think it makes complete sense to play at Pinnacle and bet teams favored by 1 instead of 1 1/2 when you are leaning that way. I just hate losing when your team wins. All sportsbooks I play with except Pinnacle do not offer 1 run lines. Why is this? Is it because they would much rather have you play teams favored by 1 1/2? I appreciate your opinions. Thanks.
wow! a rare appearence by a top 10 king of the hill playa! dude you rock! if you only knew how much your picks made me....ive never thought about the 1 run option but i will nowcurt said:
and you need to come in here and express your thoughts more often. thanks for being here curt.
k:
fair warning it doesnt matter youve been in my roxy rotation all seasonFairWarning said:Roxy - heres a post from a bottom 5-er in the contest. It hurts but I may have to start doing runlines in the contest.
BTW - that -1 that Pinny offers is SWEET.
i thank you for the plays you give!i came here using a different color and got scorched for it.maybe i can get away with it now what do you think?Roxy,
Thanks for the kind words. You are a sweetheart! The reason I don't post is because I hate to see people here lose money because they played a game on my recommendation. But now that I have an invitation from you,I may post a few. After all,how could I pass up an invite from you. Please do not bet soley based on my plays. Use them as a stipend to bet what you are thinking of betting anyway. I have been very hot lately as you can see by the king of the hill contest. I also finished a close third in the betwwts basketball playoff contest. I choked in the stretch and lost on a tiebreaker. I am usually a contrarian and value bettor. By the way,I am on the southern coast of Maine and hope to get to one of the rx bashes in Vegas. Thanks again.
Thanks for the kind words. You are a sweetheart! The reason I don't post is because I hate to see people here lose money because they played a game on my recommendation. But now that I have an invitation from you,I may post a few. After all,how could I pass up an invite from you. Please do not bet soley based on my plays. Use them as a stipend to bet what you are thinking of betting anyway. I have been very hot lately as you can see by the king of the hill contest. I also finished a close third in the betwwts basketball playoff contest. I choked in the stretch and lost on a tiebreaker. I am usually a contrarian and value bettor. By the way,I am on the southern coast of Maine and hope to get to one of the rx bashes in Vegas. Thanks again.
curt youve proven yourself as a top baseball bettor just by being near the top of the king of the hill contest. the very best at what they do can be found there.you can add so much to an already incredible forum full of great cappers. i look for your pick everyday and i would love to see more of you in here as i believe many would appreciate what you bring. so post more,the roxynation needs yacurt said:
~RG
Here's a better way. Get best ML and best RL from all your books and make your own -1 or +1 by tweaking the bet amounts. Even Pinny vs. Pinny is better than paying 14 cents juice on -1 line.
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?p=1902957#post1902957
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?p=1902957#post1902957
Curt- If you like -1, you can get a better line by betting some on the ML and some -1.5. Pinnacle basically rips you off by about 3 cents on every -1 line. It just takes a little algebra, but it's well worth it. Here is an example.
Pinnacle
White Sox (-132)
White Sox -1.5 (+164)
White Sox -1 (+111)
Instead of betting 100 to win 111 at -1, do this.
Bet $56.90 at -132 to win $43.11
Bet $43.11 at -1.5 (+164) to win $70.70.
If White Sox win by 1, you break even, just like the -1 line.
If they win by 2 or more, you win $113.81 instead of $111.
So, you get almost +114 instead of +111
You just have to know how much to bet on the ML, then bet all the would be profits from that on the -1.5 line. To figure out how much to bet on the ML, just do this.
Take 100/132=.7576
Add 1 = 1.7576
Take 100 and divide by 1.7576.
=56.90
Hope that helps. I love algebra, so let me know if you have any questions.
Pinnacle
White Sox (-132)
White Sox -1.5 (+164)
White Sox -1 (+111)
Instead of betting 100 to win 111 at -1, do this.
Bet $56.90 at -132 to win $43.11
Bet $43.11 at -1.5 (+164) to win $70.70.
If White Sox win by 1, you break even, just like the -1 line.
If they win by 2 or more, you win $113.81 instead of $111.
So, you get almost +114 instead of +111
You just have to know how much to bet on the ML, then bet all the would be profits from that on the -1.5 line. To figure out how much to bet on the ML, just do this.
Take 100/132=.7576
Add 1 = 1.7576
Take 100 and divide by 1.7576.
=56.90
Hope that helps. I love algebra, so let me know if you have any questions.
Illini said:
Outstanding post. In your Whitesox example, you get an extra 43 cents by taking the -1 vs the moneyline. This is not always consistant though. I have seen pinny give as little as 26 cents and as much as 57 cents on the -1 line vs the money line. In these cases, does your equation still work in all cases?
Here is a better explanation.
Take 100 and divide by the ML to get a multiplier. 100/132=.7576
Add 1 =1.7576
Take the amount that you were going to bet on the -1 line, and divide that by the (1 + multiplier)
=amount to bet on ML
Then, just bet the profit from the ML on the -1.5 line.
Take 100 and divide by the ML to get a multiplier. 100/132=.7576
Add 1 =1.7576
Take the amount that you were going to bet on the -1 line, and divide that by the (1 + multiplier)
=amount to bet on ML
Then, just bet the profit from the ML on the -1.5 line.
choptalk said:
I've worked a ton of examples, and it usually comes out about 3 cents better to bet the mixture, rather than the -1 line. I've worked a few of the very high -230 lines or so, and it was about the same on those. Take the Padres tonight, you actually are even a little better off betting their -1 line than the mixture. But usually, you get about 3 cents better by doing the math and betting the mixture.
